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OBS-NOWCAST for the Probable period of Hazardous wintry weather for a portion of the NYC sub forum centered on Wednesday Dec 8, 2021


wdrag
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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 18z GFS scenario isn’t very likely. The individual EPS members suggest only a very low probability of such an outcome. If the AO+, NAO+, PNA- forecast is accurate, the largest storm during the December 1-20 period occurred during December 19-20, 2008 with 4.5” in NYC. More than a foot fell in parts of southern New England.

It is too soon to write off a snowfall, but a lot more support from the other guidance will be needed to accept something along the lines of the 18z GFS. Such an outcome might not even show up on the 0z cycle.

:axe: you and your stats and facts ;) 
 

I’d love for it to somehow work out for us with this storm but we’re working ourselves up for disappointment (near the coast) in a setup like this. Maybe this can be the one that works out but I doubt it. We need blocking and the pattern being slowed down for a storm to work out this Nina season. 

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31 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

:axe: you and your stats and facts ;) 
 

I’d love for it to somehow work out for us with this storm but we’re working ourselves up for disappointment (near the coast) in a setup like this. Maybe this can be the one that works out but I doubt it. We need blocking and the pattern being slowed down for a storm to work out this Nina season. 

It’s a low probability situation, but some snow would still be better than none. I am looking forward to tonight’s guidance.

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

uhm theres not going to be a baseball season so you don't have to worry about that

Yes there will. I doubt Manfred wants a whole season lockout. 

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We've seen models amp up time and time again as we get closer so I wouldn't discount this potential. 

 do think the models will shift back northwest but I don't think they will shift alot. The flow is still fast  so there will be a limit to that. 

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18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes there will. I doubt Manfred wants a whole season lockout. 

 do think the models will shift back northwest but I don't think they will shift alot. The flow is still fast  so there will be a limit to that. 

Agreed. The zonal flow is way, way too fast for this to really amp or phase. I think the GFS is out to lunch 

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The NAM looks like it could be a possibility with the fast flow putting  us in the NW edge of the precipitation shield. This may mean that the recent Euro fix worked for East Coast storms. Those tucked in low solutions from the GFS don’t really match the pattern.

E6260CB5-A994-44D0-A438-D506CE4D3D53.thumb.png.79e8bb3ca52b3576538f365dec7238c0.png

A987F863-93A2-4EF6-BD76-0569EFC7E1EB.thumb.png.312210ce3103d0774633b7a31b2474c1.png

 

 

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The NAM looks like it could be a possibility with the fast flow putting  us in the NW edge of the precipitation shield. This may mean that the recent Euro fix worked for East Coast storms. Those tucked in low solutions from the GFS don’t really match the pattern.
E6260CB5-A994-44D0-A438-D506CE4D3D53.thumb.png.79e8bb3ca52b3576538f365dec7238c0.png
A987F863-93A2-4EF6-BD76-0569EFC7E1EB.thumb.png.312210ce3103d0774633b7a31b2474c1.png
 
 

Agreed. Fits the actual flow.


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  • wdrag changed the title to OBS-NOWCAST for the Probable period of Hazardous wintry weather for a portion of the NYC sub forum centered on Wednesday Dec 8, 2021
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