Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: As long as it keeps hitting 7 we will score. A run through 8-1-2 would be alot better. With that -PNA we risk all the cold dumping out west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: Models continue in push back mode. The forecast colder pattern near the end of December is now warmer than the old run. This is the same thing that happened for Christmas from a week ago. It’s one of the problems with such a strong -PNA pattern. New run Old run Well AN air for the foreseeable future. Goose egg for December seems likely. 28F this morning…even that is AN for my location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and milder today. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 44° Newark: 47° Philadelphia: 46° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.8°; 15-Year: 43.6° Newark: 30-Year: 43.3°; 15-Year: 44.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.5°; 15-Year: 45.6° Another brief push of cooler air is likely on Thursday before readings again warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 IMO, it's this area of persistent convection north of Australia causing this persistent -PNA. So you would want some subsidence to push east from the Indian Ocean to tamp that down somewhat as the mjo moves east. That's what was happening on some of the better ensemble (eps & gefs) runs last week. Not so much currently. This is also a piece of the la Niña base state. So it's definitely a challenging proposition, especially with very warm water in this area. Just wanted to point that out for those wondering why that -PNA is there in the first place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: A run through 8-1-2 would be alot better. With that -PNA we risk all the cold dumping out west Yeah 8 is the money phase, but we can reach average annual snowfall if we keep hitting 7 with a predominantly negative NAO/AO. I think the biggest issue is lack of precipitation/larger storms. 2001/2002 may have had the same problem. Give me 20 inches of overrunning/swfe/"washed away by rain" snowfall by March 1st and I will take my chances in a Nina March any day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah 8 is the money phase, but we can reach average annual snowfall if we keep hitting 7 with a predominantly negative NAO/AO. I think the biggest issue is lack of precipitation/larger storms. 2001/2002 may have had the same problem. Give me 20 inches of overrunning/swfe/"washed away by rain" snowfall by March 1st and I will take my chances in a Nina March any day. Phase 7 is decent for us in January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 In fact, there's some of that happening right now. It's just not doing enough to alleviate the deep -PNA as it stands currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 hour ago, wdrag said: No thread for tonight or Christmas eve early morning... but may eventually begin OBS thread if anything looks more certain for near NYC, otherwise suggest the freezing-frozen are tucked into the NW-NE suburbs thread. This is my take upon looking at multiple model output: Best chance tonight for ice is interior MA, if precip occurs there. HRRR, SPC HREF, HRRR X favor up there. However, some other modeling allows for spotty icing all the way down to near I95 in NJ. RGEM being one of them. Because of this I add the NWS 10z ensemble for chance of spotty icing tonight---LOW chance but not zero. The period of light snow risk (less than 1") continues for Thursday night-early Friday but it too may be a non player in NYC. That's not much winter, but something. My last on this til after 5P. Have a day! Flakes will be nice to see on Christmas Eve 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Models continue in push back mode. The forecast colder pattern near the end of December is now warmer than the old run. This is the same thing that happened for Christmas from a week ago. It’s one of the problems with such a strong -PNA pattern. New run Old run Which is why I was never excited about this pattern. Two months from now this would be an excellent pattern though. And I do think this pattern will show up again in late Feb/March where most of our cold & snow will be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 looks interesting for end of the week on the latest GFS. boston looks like a great spot for sunday. let's see if we can amplify that wave and move it south by 100mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Me when we start to gain more daylight tommorow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah 8 is the money phase, but we can reach average annual snowfall if we keep hitting 7 with a predominantly negative NAO/AO. I think the biggest issue is lack of precipitation/larger storms. 2001/2002 may have had the same problem. Give me 20 inches of overrunning/swfe/"washed away by rain" snowfall by March 1st and I will take my chances in a Nina March any day. I think it's a question of if you're willing to put up with a near perfect snowless winter if you think that next year could be a blockbluster. I already see comparisons to 2002-03 for next year coming out of the main forum. Would you guys care if we had a completely snowless winter this year if we could score big next year? Thats the way it's been happening recently (a streak of great winters after one nearly snowless winter, it's happened multiple times since 2001-02.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I think it's a question of if you're willing to put up with a near perfect snowless winter if you think that next year could be a blockbluster. I already see comparisons to 2002-03 for next year coming out of the main forum. Would you guys care if we had a completely snowless winter this year if we could score big next year? Thats the way it's been happening recently (a streak of great winters after one nearly snowless winter, it's happened multiple times since 2001-02.) I’m old enough to know that it do be like that sometimes and be at peace with that.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I think it's a question of if you're willing to put up with a near perfect snowless winter if you think that next year could be a blockbluster. I already see comparisons to 2002-03 for next year coming out of the main forum. Would you guys care if we had a completely snowless winter this year if we could score big next year? Thats the way it's been happening recently (a streak of great winters after one nearly snowless winter, it's happened multiple times since 2001-02.) Yeah I would. 4.5 inches for the season was rough in 01/02 but worth it for 02/03 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Biggest negative departure at the park yesterday with -6.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah I would. 4.5 inches for the season was rough in 01/02 but worth it for 02/03 Yup just for that one winter alone but think about it we had a three year streak of AMAZING winters (I'm not including 05-06 because that was a one hit winter.) And then we had a few bad to average winters from 06-07 through 08-09 followed by two historic blockbusters. After 11-12 we had an average 12-13 and then two historic winters again 13-14 and 14-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 hours ago, EasternLI said: IMO, it's this area of persistent convection north of Australia causing this persistent -PNA. So you would want some subsidence to push east from the Indian Ocean to tamp that down somewhat as the mjo moves east. That's what was happening on some of the better ensemble (eps & gefs) runs last week. Not so much currently. This is also a piece of the la Niña base state. So it's definitely a challenging proposition, especially with very warm water in this area. Just wanted to point that out for those wondering why that -PNA is there in the first place. The typhoon really slowed the progression of the mjo. Probably won’t be until the new year we get into p7. Hopefully we can get a pac reshuffle but the ensembles have definitely been can kicking it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Looks like some light snow is possible early Christmas Eve morning on all the models currently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 This is all part of the interference from the La Niña standing wave. These RMM charts by individual component show what’s going on. Notice how several components are hanging back closer to the Maritime continent. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like some light snow is possible early Christmas Eve morning on all the models currently Not seeing much if anything on the 12z NAM and RGEM - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The typhoon really slowed the progression of the mjo. Probably won’t be until the new year we get into p7. Hopefully we can get a pac reshuffle but the ensembles have definitely been can kicking it Yup. This stuff is challenging for all models. So constant monitoring is helpful to "look under the hood" so to speak. There's some hints I'm seeing that a new wave takes over in phase 6 and propagates right into to phase 7. But as the old one is dissipating. So it's a stalled out in Phase 7 look on the ensembles. Griteater has a nice thread on Twitter about other years that did something similar. The hope is that this phase 7 will do significant damage to the PV. It's pretty much wait and see what happens at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 24 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like some light snow is possible early Christmas Eve morning on all the models currently Yep it will be nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 28 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The typhoon really slowed the progression of the mjo. Probably won’t be until the new year we get into p7. Hopefully we can get a pac reshuffle but the ensembles have definitely been can kicking it Gefs has a high amplitude 7 as we move along. It moves along unlike the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Here's something really cool.. The last 4 Christmas' + 2 days, 20 analogs Dec23-27, 2017-2020. In the midst of a very +NAO Winter time. It happens again this year(5 in a row.)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Not seeing much if anything on the 12z NAM and RGEM - Seriously the 72 hr nam? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Seriously the 72 hr nam? 72 hr GFS has maybe a snow shower over CT and rain shower over LI nothing south of there. Yawn, pattern just blows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 72 hr GFS has maybe a snow shower over CT and rain shower over LI nothing south of there. Yawn, pattern just blows Wrong. I said a period of light snow and not the blizzard of 96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 72 hr GFS has maybe a snow shower over CT and rain shower over LI nothing south of there. Yawn, pattern just blows No one said a snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: No one said a snowstorm given how dry and poor the pattern is, I think this will trend drier and further north as we move closer....last weekend's system ended up much further north than modeled even a day out and LOL how much snowier the weatherbell maps are than TT. Does JB fluff them to show more snow for the weenies?!?!?? LOL 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Rain for xmas day. No cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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