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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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6 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Another thing you notice with both the CMC and the GFS is that they have pretty big dropouts in skill relative to the Euro. Every so often they just whiff, whereas the Euro tends to always be in the game even if not totally correct.

I've personally noticed the GGEM's improvements, tho - competing with its self, it's better in that space then prior to a couple years ago when I noticed it abruptly started looking more "Euro like" one D4 to 6s. 

fwiw -

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I thought the EPS was better for the run up D 5--> 10 range last night.

GEFs wasn't terrible either.   The numerical EOFs didn't look terrible, with briefer -PNA returning neutral positive toward the 2nd week of Dec. 

They are missing some of the classic featuring in the mean layouts of the polar-stereographic views, but, there is a deep nadir/SPV over James Bay not really allowing much warmth N of IND-PHL ...some perhaps very brief in shunting warm sectors...But that look could end up with ice events.

One thing I am concerned about is the look as though we are setting into a huge gradient over our hemisphere ...again - jesus I'm sick of that sonic speed look. Transporting S/W from California to the southern tip of Greenland at orbital velocities gets old.

Anyway, folks mentioned volatility so...

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, let’s predict a +PNA for the entire month of December in a Niña approaching moderate status. Brilliant, should work out great. This guy isn’t even a meteorologist 

RNA is favored during la nina, but there are plenty of instances of a month averaging PNA in the means...especially during the month of December. Just like RNA takes place during el nino.

There should at last be some PNA spikes during December.

Bad post.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, let’s predict a +PNA for the entire month of December in a Niña approaching moderate status. Brilliant, should work out great. This guy isn’t even a meteorologist 

He's making a statement based upon persistence and seasonal trend; completely valid approach and there's nothing really there that impugns his ability as a Meteorologist. 

Let's not jump on the pig pilin' parade float? Instead, judge the content on it's own merit ?

That said, he may in fact not be good at his craft - I don't know the man. Don't follow his work.  But that tweet in and of its self it perfectly valid.

Fact of the matter is, it's been a game of postponing - he right.

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If we can get the NAO recovery to stall, that’d transitively help confluence/llv cold. 

PNA is dipping neggie next weekend by a modest amount before what looks in the vague distance to be a positive reload. … about 4 days or so.  Does offer cutter track activation in that window … If cold/ west limb neg NAO dams we SWFE/ overrun 

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