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November Discussion


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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah not bad. Some members showing this. Maybe something to watch.

This is the same "system" from the post I made several days ago....interesting that it has reappeared recently (GGEM has it too but just a day earlier).

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is the same "system" from the post I made several days ago....interesting that it has reappeared recently (GGEM has it too but just a day earlier).

 

 

 

Right now its well to the east on the GFS for the 28-29th as it looks more focused on the first wave on Friday.

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Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said:

With the warm Fall we have are SST's above normal for late November around here? Probably more problematic for coastal folks than average. 

That would also lend to a more potent low as well so you could get an offset as it wraps in some colder air but it still far out to get into any finer details if it even remains on the models.

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1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

With the warm Fall we have are SST's above normal for late November around here? Probably more problematic for coastal folks than average. 

This is true, but I am far enough from the ocean that I will take the tradeoff for the increased baroclinicity.

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1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

With the warm Fall we have are SST's above normal for late November around here? Probably more problematic for coastal folks than average. 

Water temps like 52 vs 49 or so will always be problematic. In general, you need a decent antecedent airmass or having winds stay more nrly. 

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11 minutes ago, George001 said:

To my untrained eyes that looks like a Miller B to me. Is that correct or am I mistaken?

I’d say no..cuz you don’t have a redevelopment from what I’m seeing.  But that’s not a surface map either….so I could be completely wrong. 
 

But that’s a very nice 500mb look for sure. A lot of energy dropping into the trough.  We’ll Take our chances with that all day long. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I’d say no..cuz you don’t have a redevelopment from what I’m seeing.  But that’s not a surface nap either….so I could be completely wrong. 
 

But that’s a very nice 500mb look for sure. Take your chances with that all day long. 

I think we've had a surface nap all month long, despite some H5 excitement from time to time.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’d say no..cuz you don’t have a redevelopment from what I’m seeing.  But that’s not a surface map either….so I could be completely wrong. 
 

But that’s a very nice 500mb look for sure. A lot of energy dropping into the trough.  We’ll Take our chances with that all day long. 

Its really to bad none of us live there.

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