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November Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Phew what a run here. Snow for days.

That would be warning snows on that run for quite a few, Maybe a hair wrm to start south of here, But looked to be isotherm thru the column here back to you the whole time without diving into the upper levels yet until we see if it holds and get closer in.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s fine here as well 

As for the CT outcome, the modeled track of the upper features; especially the 700/850 tracks, are far from ideal for big snows across most of CT, RI and southeastern Mass... decent front-end burst possible and some wrap-around action late, but as modeled those 700 & 850 center tracks have to come considerably further south to offer a decent shot at mod/hvy amounts south of the pike.  Quick transition to mixed and rain if those tracks verify.  Further north, very dynamic event is on the table.

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5 minutes ago, FXWX said:

As for the CT outcome, the modeled track of the upper features; especially the 700/850 tracks, are far from ideal for big snows across most of CT, RI and southeastern Mass... decent front-end burst possible and some wrap-around action late, but as modeled those 700 & 850 center tracks have to come considerably further south to offer a decent shot at mod/hvy amounts south of the pike.  Quick transition to mixed and rain if those tracks verify.  Further north, very dynamic event is on the table.

With neggy NAO suppression is bigger danger than a NNE special 

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What the hell is going on with the Euro? Looks like it's going to phase all 3 shortwaves this run...or at least try. No other run tries to phase in the lagging southern stream s/w in the southwest US.

Whatever you do, never cross the streams.

 

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That is a nice hit Pike north. Ray approved jack.

So good to be 3 miles north of the Pike.  :)

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2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Need that northern branch to dig a little more for us closer to the coast. Not a bad run though this far out.

Not so sure a full phase with that southern stream s/w would be a completely positive thing for some this early in the season, First model run that tries to interact with the southern stream.

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2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Would have been interesting to see the Euro solution minus the southern stream energy it incorporated. Certainly seems to resemble the UKMET if one removes the southern energy.

I'm sure we get to experience that in the next 12 cycles or so...............:lol:

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