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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


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4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Solar doesn't explain the variation in the region though. The solar is the same in the higher terrain as it is in the lower elevations, but obviously we all know 2kft is going to peak well before 500ft. So I think solar is the main reason they change in the first place, but weather conditions explain the variation we see from year to year.

Its natural selection, thanks to genetics that produce different phenology within a species.  As climate has warmed and cooled in the past, conditions in which, say, a sugar maple can survive and regenerate seedlings move up/down or north/south.  A cooling climate would cause late frost damage to the maples which leaf out earliest, leaving the later leaf-outs (which are typical early droppers as well) to take over that site.  A warming climate would allow the long-growing-season varieties to move up/north as their extra days of growth would make them more competitive.  Trees grow where they can compete well and produce viable seed, and time sorts out which varieties are best suited to which site characteristics.

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53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes it is. For the airport alone, need to start the year at 1948. Though I'm not sure how different the numbers would be for frost/freeze. The older site radiated much better which probably produced several freezes when the airport wouldn't have gotten them. The older site actually had a slight cold bias vs airport on low temps. The high temp differences were more noticeable though.

Virtually no difference in first and last 1 inch but an interesting change in first and last 32 degrees 

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mid/next week depends on the placement of the surface high.   Euro camps wants to situated its ballast N of BUF-BOS axis by enough distance to imply flags wobbling GOM "warmth" all the way to NYC.    GFS' camp on the other hand situates the high pressure more directly overhead.  That would suppress said flag wobbling and allow first half of the days to get relatively warm before more of a sbreeze boundary.   It's all going to change, but taking the overnight verbatim. 

On a personal note, ... I'm not feelin' winter this year.  I just don't want it. I think I may be relocating to Arizona, and finding an off-grid up among the sage and tumble weeds, so I can spend out my pointless existence utterly alone like your God is forcing on my reality anyway. 

lol. 

Which god are you referring to?

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2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

He has recently become the most confused poster in SNE , always befuddled by responses . We hope he sees clearly soon . Pray for the Rev.

You must not understand the concept. The confused response means the poster who posted it is confused. Not the reader. So all those confused faces are when the poster is very clueless or confused 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You must not understand the concept. The confused response means the poster who posted it is confused. Not the reader. So all those confused faces are when the poster is very clueless or confused 

So when we put a laughing emoji it’s the poster who is laughing, not the reader?  I always thought it was “I found that funny” not “you found that funny.”

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Jesus is the Euro warm. Highest height anomalies on the planet for eastern US/Canada. 

Like our own version of the Pacific NW ridge this summer.

Oh yeah baby.   But, lots of HP and onshore flow. As I said...nights will drive the AN anomalies. 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

So when we put a laughing emoji it’s the poster who is laughing, not the reader?

What?

I get what DIT is saying. Like when MJO says there will be a hurricane at the end of the month, I'll put a confused emoji because he's reading some bad info or doesn't know what he's talking about. However, a LOL emoji means I found the post funny. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I get what DIT is saying. Like when MJO says there will be a hurricane at the end of the month, I'll put a confused emoji because he's reading some bad info or doesn't know what he's talking about. However, a LOL emoji means I found the post funny. 

Thanks for that breakdown...

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I get what DIT is saying. Like when MJO says there will be a hurricane at the end of the month, I'll put a confused emoji because he's reading some bad info or doesn't know what he's talking about. However, a LOL emoji means I found the post funny. 

Pretty sure its meant to mean the reader is confused but DIT throws them out when he disagrees

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh yeah baby.   But, lots of HP and onshore flow. As I said...nights will drive the AN anomalies. 

At first maybe but then it becomes more of a WAR/expansive Bermuda high ridge.

If that's true then temperatures will get even hotter deeper into October or opposite of climo

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

At first maybe but then it becomes more of a WAR/expansive Bermuda high ridge.

If that's true then temperatures will get even hotter deeper into October or opposite of climo

I doubt it.

October is the steepest drop in climo...pretty tough to entirely compensate for that. Anomaly wise. sure...

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

At first maybe but then it becomes more of a WAR/expansive Bermuda high ridge.

If that's true then temperatures will get even hotter deeper into October or opposite of climo

Warm and wet , give me sun and warm in Oct. 5 plus inches rain in ten days just isn't cutting it no matter how warm.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I get what DIT is saying. Like when MJO says there will be a hurricane at the end of the month, I'll put a confused emoji because he's reading some bad info or doesn't know what he's talking about. However, a LOL emoji means I found the post funny. 

Yeah I guess it works, never thought about it like that.  I thought it was “your post is so weird that I’m confused because I don’t see that in the data.”

But the weenie is also aimed at the original poster, so I can see it both ways.

I truly always thought the confused was “I’m confused by the crap you’re making up” :lol:.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I guess it works, never thought about it like that.  I thought it was “your post is so weird that I’m confused because I don’t see that in the data.”

But the weenie is also aimed at the original poster, so I can see it both ways.

I truly always thought the confused was “I’m confused by the crap you’re making up” :lol:.

The verb confused tells all. Weenie being a noun 

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I get what DIT is saying. Like when MJO says there will be a hurricane at the end of the month, I'll put a confused emoji because he's reading some bad info or doesn't know what he's talking about. However, a LOL emoji means I found the post funny. 

Yup. Like when Freak said he and a “friend” were looking at pictures of leaves and there was no real difference in years.. he’s very confused. So you throw the confused face at him

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52 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Jesus is the Euro warm. Highest height anomalies on the planet for eastern US/Canada. 

Like our own version of the Pacific NW ridge this summer.

It wouldn't get clear of the 60s in that look underneath...  That high draped and stalled ...banked N-E of us means a steady unrelenting cool feed beneath the 850s, from what I saw ... pretty much D3 right out to the end of the run.

It's actually a repeating motif for these global numerical models since June really.  They keep trying to over the top large ridge signatures, while surface anticyclones, favoring N routes ... keeping it colder at the surface than one would think looking at the geopotential medium. 

We really never saw a western U.S. heat ejection come around on a continental conveyor this season even once.  July just up and end up cool anyway...  But, this pattern coming in is doing it again.  It's a like the framework for big warmth, that is not outfitted with a building.

The June version of that might have been why we were historically warm that month with only two pedestrian heatwaves.  It kept the days relatively cool compared to what they could have heated to, while the nights couldn't bottom out.   This appears to be a pattern going back to mid summer, only doing so with weakening solar input.   Something like this...

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It wouldn't get clear of the 60s in that look underneath...  That high draped and stalled ...banked N-E of us means a steady unrelenting cool feed beneath the 850s, from what I saw ... pretty much D3 right out to the end of the run.

It's actually a repeating motif for these global numerical models since June really.  They keep trying to over the top large ridge signatures, while surface anticyclones, favoring N routes ... keeping it colder at the surface than one would think looking at the geopotential medium. 

We really never saw a western U.S. heat ejection come around on a continental conveyor this season even once.  July just up and end up cool anyway...  But, this pattern coming in is doing it again.  It's a like the framework for big warmth, that is not outfitted with a building.

The June version of that might have been why we were historically warm that month with only two pedestrian heatwaves.  It kept the days relatively cool compared to what they could have heated to, while the nights couldn't bottom out.   This appears to be a pattern going back to mid summer, only doing so with weakening solar input.   Something like this...

 

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It wouldn't get clear of the 60s in that look underneath...  That high draped and stalled ...banked N-E of us means a steady unrelenting cool feed beneath the 850s, from what I saw ... pretty much D3 right out to the end of the run.

It's actually a repeating motif for these global numerical models since June really.  They keep trying to over the top large ridge signatures, while surface anticyclones, favoring N routes ... keeping it colder at the surface than one would think looking at the geopotential medium. 

We really never saw a western U.S. heat ejection come around on a continental conveyor this season even once.  July just up and end up cool anyway...  But, this pattern coming in is doing it again.  It's a like the framework for big warmth, that is not outfitted with a building.

The June version of that might have been why we were historically warm that month with only two pedestrian heatwaves.  It kept the days relatively cool compared to what they could have heated to, while the nights couldn't bottom out.   This appears to be a pattern going back to mid summer, only doing so with weakening solar input.   Something like this...

 Except it will be 80゚ over forky's  house and Newark. While it's 60's in Philly nyc and Boston.lol

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4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Virtually no difference in first and last 1 inch but an interesting change in first and last 32 degrees 

 

 

 

 

You can see how cold the late 1970s through early 1990s were in autumn on the first freeze/frost data at ORH. Like the 1980s might be the coldest period for autumn on their timeline. That matches some of the discussions we’ve had on here....both anecdotally and other data. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can see how cold the late 1970s through early 1990s were in autumn on the first freeze/frost data at ORH. Like the 1980s might be the coldest period for autumn on their timeline. That matches some of the discussions we’ve had on here....both anecdotally and other data. 

And now we’re left with no cold falls or winters. Amazing how fast things have flipped 

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