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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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Very complex and complicated pattern developing late week. I believe that the various models will struggle the next 24 to 36 hours as they attempt to resolve each piece of energy and an accurate depiction of the amount of overrunning moisture. If I remember correctly, December 2017 really did not provide much lead time before resolving what became a snow event that stretched from Coastal Texas to Baton Rogue and on up to the Carolinas and beyond. 

lowtrack_ensembles (2).gif

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2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The NAM was getting ready to be a humongous hit for the upstate and WNC.

Yep. I'm going back and reading the December 2017 overrunning thread. This seems very similar to that and some of the same model bias is showing up this storm

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Yep. I'm going back and reading the December 2017 overrunning thread. This seems very similar to that and some of the same model bias is showing up this storm

Very similar as Hunter alluded to yesterday. The benefit this go-round would be phenomenal temps. We could be looking at solid 15:1 ratios in WNC if we can just get moisture here.

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Yep. I'm going back and reading the December 2017 overrunning thread. This seems very similar to that and some of the same model bias is showing up this storm

No kidding. Just 4 pages in, 84hr NAM 12km throwing the first warning shots that lot more QPF was coming west about 3-4 days out.12A1076E-D156-4F44-B9C5-A2746F9D4BE2.png.87d8e7c1e36788dea72e4446ffe44a6f.png

Sounds pretty familiar. Obviously 2017 is a ridiculous benchmark, but it's clear comparing where we were 3-4 days out then to now, that absolutely no one in the Western Carolinas and N GA should be giving up on this one.

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10 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

Was just at Ingles and manager was talking about not having a truck in 4 days. Shelves are getting bare. Stock up! 

Yeah between covid, the holidays,  the shipment supply chain and this snow there is literally nothing to stock up on... The grocery stores are freaking bare. I moved my meat to butcher box each month myself. 

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No kidding. Just 4 pages in, 84hr NAM 12km throwing the first warning shots that lot more QPF was coming west about 3-4 days out.



Sounds pretty familiar. Obviously 2017 is a ridiculous benchmark, but it's clear comparing where we were 3-4 days out then to now, that absolutely no one in the Western Carolinas and N GA should be giving up on this one.

Indeed and if you remember it speed up, that models shows Friday evening and we got hammered starting at 9am Friday morning.
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3 hours ago, Maggie Ace said:

WPC afternoon Update just issued. 

FJaXlkaVIAEXQh_.png

Well the WPC still showing Heavy Snow for most of NC but some of the local Mets are down playing the potential winter storm saying its not as strong of storm as this last one but WPC and other Mets are saying it's going to be a slow moving storm compared to this last one so that should make up for not being as strong.  Most of the ensembles are showing big dogs for all the region that the WPC map has circled in NC.  Well at least the duration of the event will be longer than this last storm with impulses popping and coming thru the area.  

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4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

18Z Euro was a big miss.

 

I haven't looked too closely yet, but it doesn't appear as if there were any changes that stood out to me at first glance. There was less moisture, and maybe the northern stream wasn't as pronounced. Maybe? Overall though, it looked similar to me. 

 

ps....I had wine with dinner and not wearing my glasses, so I could be totally wrong :P :unsure:

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1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I haven't looked too closely yet, but it doesn't appear as if there were any changes that stood out to me at first glance. There was less moisture, and maybe the northern stream wasn't as pronounced. Maybe? Overall though, it looked similar to me. 

 

ps....I had wine with dinner and not wearing my glasses, so I could be totally wrong :P :unsure:

It's not totally different, just drier

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