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October 2021


Stormlover74
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s a shame the higher up officials at the NWS let the trees grow over the sensors starting around the 1990s. We have demonstrated how the high temperatures have cooled relative to other stations since then. The cold bias was recently fixed at the Albany airport. But that fix may have been prioritized due to flight safety. The accuracy of the climate record of the biggest city in America should be just as important even though it’s not at an airport.

https://altamontenterprise.com/09162021/albany-airport-needs-more-accurate-thermometer

Albany airport needs more accurate thermometer

One would think the National Weather Service, being the steward of accurate weather detail, would seek to have an accurate thermometer. We all have heard that a global average warming of just 1.5C (about 2.5F) could wreak havoc on our planet. So, if the thermometer at the Albany International Airport is measuring 2.5 degrees too low, as I believe it is, this cool bias reading might mask any significant warming.

Assuming that is the case, an accurate thermometer is just as critical to the aviation industry. If the actual temperature is 34 F, but the Automated Surface Observing System thermometer records a temperature of 32 F, the pilot might have to be concerned about freezing rain versus liquid rain, which makes a huge operational impact. 
 

Perhaps the worst part of all this, is that our monthly records with this known cool bias, keep going out to the world and would suggest our climate is locally cooling, when really it is not. 

The folks at the local National Weather Service in Albany are not to blame. They have done all they can to inform the higher officials of the problem. I suggest you call your local Congress member and hopefully they can put pressure on the higher officials of National Weather Service to change the thermometer before further damage can be done to the climate records and have a reliable accurate temperature sensor.

 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202109301152-KALY-NOUS41-PNSALY

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2021

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REPLACEMENT OF THERMOMETER AT
ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECONDITIONING CENTER (NWSRC) REPLACED
THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM THERMOMETER AND ASSOCIATED
ELECTRONICS AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY, 
SEPTEMBER 29, 2021 AT 9:30 AM. THE THERMOMETER WAS REPLACED WITH A
MODIFIED SENSOR AND CALIBRATED WITH A MODIFIED ALIGNMENT 
PROCEDURE.

A REFERENCE THERMOMETER, RUNNING SIDE BY SIDE WITH THE ASOS THERMOMETER,
HAS COLLECTED DATA FOR COMPARISON SINCE JUNE. THE PREVIOUS 
THERMOMETERS INSTALLED SINCE JULY 17, 2020 LIKELY HAD A COLD BIAS 
(THERMOMETER RECORDS A COLDER TEMPERATURE THAN THE ACTUAL 
TEMPERATURE).

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE THE INVESTIGATION ON THE
COLD BIAS IN THE ALBANY TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE PERIOD JULY 
17, 2020 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 29, 2021. 

PLEASE CONTACT SUSAN BUCHANAN, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS, NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 301-427-9000 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

 

 

I can't see NWS doing anything besides the status quo. It would take some tragedy unfortunately, like a catastrophic heat wave that was underestimated due to a pigeon hole focus on Central Park readings.

Better off trying to get media to incorporate other NYC stations more prominently in their forecasts etc.

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The long range forecast into early November is more uncertain in the new extended EPS. The blocking looks less impressive now. Maybe the strat warming is having trouble coupling with the troposphere? If that is the case, then  any cool down would be less impressive than earlier forecasts were hinting at. We’ll have to just wait and see…

New run November 1-7

412CBF41-6148-4F03-B3C9-26ED20DF3B5F.thumb.jpeg.80808c0905db13f975e5a67e81300659.jpeg
 

Old run


88DFB7E3-9EA2-4A5A-A6E1-973F4BB914CB.thumb.jpeg.dfcae6ce8d835c0fe254538c78895364.jpeg

 

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wyv2yqmr_x96.png
 
 
We have just added more than 50 new products to our #OpenCharts catalogue! These forecast charts are free for anyone to access, redistribute and adapt - even for commercial applications - part of our open data Strategy for 2021-2030. Dive in & explore... https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts
 
 
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4 hours ago, Tatamy said:

You need to be careful what you wish for.  If a Cat 1 does make landfall somewhere in the area you outlined it will be destructive for at least some of us.  I had the opportunity to see the tornado damage done in Bucks Cty, PA this year by Ida and trust me you would not want to see that in your neighborhood.

I mean not that because I hate tornadoes, but something like Belle which didn't really cause much damage at all.

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The temperature at JFK Airport hit 80 degrees today. That is the latest such temperature since October 19, 2016. The average last such temperature occurs on September 27th (1991-2020). During the 1981-2010 period, the average last 80-degree reading occurred on September 24th.

yes it was damn hot today!  was that the high?

of course this doesnt come close to matching the 95 from a few years ago or the 90 in 10/07

when was the latest JFK has ever hit 80?

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s a shame the higher up officials at the NWS let the trees grow over the sensors starting around the 1990s. We have demonstrated how the high temperatures have cooled relative to other stations since then. The cold bias was recently fixed at the Albany airport. But that fix may have been prioritized due to flight safety. The accuracy of the climate record of the biggest city in America should be just as important even though it’s not at an airport.

https://altamontenterprise.com/09162021/albany-airport-needs-more-accurate-thermometer

Albany airport needs more accurate thermometer

One would think the National Weather Service, being the steward of accurate weather detail, would seek to have an accurate thermometer. We all have heard that a global average warming of just 1.5C (about 2.5F) could wreak havoc on our planet. So, if the thermometer at the Albany International Airport is measuring 2.5 degrees too low, as I believe it is, this cool bias reading might mask any significant warming.

Assuming that is the case, an accurate thermometer is just as critical to the aviation industry. If the actual temperature is 34 F, but the Automated Surface Observing System thermometer records a temperature of 32 F, the pilot might have to be concerned about freezing rain versus liquid rain, which makes a huge operational impact. 
 

Perhaps the worst part of all this, is that our monthly records with this known cool bias, keep going out to the world and would suggest our climate is locally cooling, when really it is not. 

The folks at the local National Weather Service in Albany are not to blame. They have done all they can to inform the higher officials of the problem. I suggest you call your local Congress member and hopefully they can put pressure on the higher officials of National Weather Service to change the thermometer before further damage can be done to the climate records and have a reliable accurate temperature sensor.

 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202109301152-KALY-NOUS41-PNSALY

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2021

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REPLACEMENT OF THERMOMETER AT
ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECONDITIONING CENTER (NWSRC) REPLACED
THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM THERMOMETER AND ASSOCIATED
ELECTRONICS AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY, 
SEPTEMBER 29, 2021 AT 9:30 AM. THE THERMOMETER WAS REPLACED WITH A
MODIFIED SENSOR AND CALIBRATED WITH A MODIFIED ALIGNMENT 
PROCEDURE.

A REFERENCE THERMOMETER, RUNNING SIDE BY SIDE WITH THE ASOS THERMOMETER,
HAS COLLECTED DATA FOR COMPARISON SINCE JUNE. THE PREVIOUS 
THERMOMETERS INSTALLED SINCE JULY 17, 2020 LIKELY HAD A COLD BIAS 
(THERMOMETER RECORDS A COLDER TEMPERATURE THAN THE ACTUAL 
TEMPERATURE).

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE THE INVESTIGATION ON THE
COLD BIAS IN THE ALBANY TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE PERIOD JULY 
17, 2020 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 29, 2021. 

PLEASE CONTACT SUSAN BUCHANAN, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS, NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 301-427-9000 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

 

 

why is it such a big deal? just switch to use the airports and dont even central park data anymore.

we dont care about temps from the 1800s or the early 1900s they are no longer applicable to our climate

 

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 12 pm, temperatures in New York City were as follows: Central Park: 71°, JFK: 76°, and LGA: 74°. Central Park is reporting the lowest temperature among New York City's three major stations. This is not an anomaly. This is now an increasingly frequent outcome in October, especially when it comes to maximum temperatures.

During 1961-90, Central Park's high temperature was the lowest or tied with the lowest reading on 28% of days. During the 1991-20 period, Central Park recorded the lowest temperature on 64% of days. During the October 1-13, 2021 period, Central Park's high temperature has been the lowest or tied with the lowest on all days. Moreover, between 1961-90 and 1991-20, JFK (+0.5°) and LGA (+1.6°) saw increasing high temperatures. In contrast, Central Park saw a decline in its average October high temperature of 0.6°.

Below are some tables that illustrate how things have evolved. The use of regression equations developed from the 1961-90 period (NYC is the dependent variable; JFK and LGA are the independent variables) before the tree issue arose suggests that the October 1-13, 2021 mean temperature in Central Park would be 67.7°. Instead, the mean was 65.2°, a large 2.5° difference.

image.png.b5547cd6b936d8bd73731e739b4cd55a.png

this was the perfect day here, hit 80 easily! was JFK's the highest high temp in the area?

 

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14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why is it such a big deal? just switch to use the airports and dont even central park data anymore.

we dont care about temps from the 1800s or the early 1900s they are no longer applicable to our climate

 

Has anyone figured how Central Park winter temps compare to surrounding areas? If they read about the same, then it would seem to indicate the foliage is definitely making a difference in the warmer months. If the high temps are cooler than surrounding areas even in winter, then that is something to ponder why.

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Under abundant sunshine, temperatures rose into the upper 70s and even lower 80s across the region. Newark reached 70° for the 168th time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 1986 and 1991 for the 7th most days on record. Today was also the 113th 80° day at Newark, tying 2021 with 1991, 1993, and 2016 for 3rd highest number.  

Through this afternoon, Bismarck has yet to experience its first freeze of the season. The latest first freeze on record occurred on October 14, 2008. That record could be tied by the end of the day and broken tomorrow.

Tomorrow will be an exceptionally warm day. The temperature could approach or reach 80° in many parts of the region. Saturday will be another very warm day, but some showers and even a thundershower are possible as a strong cold front moves across the region. Behind the frontal passage, readings will return to near normal levels.

The MJO is currently passing through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

La Niña conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +16.89 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.957 today.

On October 12 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.939 (RMM). The October 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.179 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.9° (4.0° above normal).

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The long range forecast into early November is more uncertain in the new extended EPS. The blocking looks less impressive now. Maybe the strat warming is having trouble coupling with the troposphere? If that is the case, then  any cool down would be less impressive than earlier forecasts were hinting at. We’ll have to just wait and see…

New run November 1-7

412CBF41-6148-4F03-B3C9-26ED20DF3B5F.thumb.jpeg.80808c0905db13f975e5a67e81300659.jpeg
 

Old run


88DFB7E3-9EA2-4A5A-A6E1-973F4BB914CB.thumb.jpeg.dfcae6ce8d835c0fe254538c78895364.jpeg

 

@bluewave@donsutherland1 None of the models are showing the warming/disruption downwelling into the lower stratosphere or into the troposphere: 

 

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11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under abundant sunshine, temperatures rose into the upper 70s and even lower 80s across the region. Newark reached 70° for the 168th time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 1986 and 1991 for the 7th most days on record. Today was also the 113th 80° day at Newark, tying 2021 with 1991, 1993, and 2016 for 3rd highest number.  

Through this afternoon, Bismarck has yet to experience its first freeze of the season. The latest first freeze on record occurred on October 14, 2008. That record could be tied by the end of the day and broken tomorrow.

Tomorrow will be an exceptionally warm day. The temperature could approach or reach 80° in many parts of the region. Saturday will be another very warm day, but some showers and even a thundershower are possible as a strong cold front moves across the region. Behind the frontal passage, readings will return to near normal levels.

The MJO is currently passing through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

La Niña conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +16.89 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.957 today.

On October 12 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.939 (RMM). The October 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.179 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.9° (4.0° above normal).

 

Newark hitting 70 is a very low bar, they didn't hit 80 today like JFK did?  What was the high at JFK and was it the highest in the area?

 

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50 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Has anyone figured how Central Park winter temps compare to surrounding areas? If they read about the same, then it would seem to indicate the foliage is definitely making a difference in the warmer months. If the high temps are cooler than surrounding areas even in winter, then that is something to ponder why.

staten island can be 5-10 degrees colder than Central Park under the right conditions...

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48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A back and forth between warm ups and cool downs over the next few weeks. So temperatures averaging closer to normal will feel cool compared recent times. But still no really cold -10 type departures on the horizon. 
 

Oct 18-25

 

924AE216-ECF5-4447-A6A6-C2EF4F07203A.thumb.png.6fb724fdf4dcf1c51183320c69ac7be0.png

 

Oct 25-31


7150953B-C276-4C0C-B1E3-5DAB1F5E6074.thumb.png.02c7bd916291edb16725321dc0080f1a.png

 

 

Agree with this. Still very early obviously but I’m not so sure that the flip to a cold November narrative being pushed by some is going to work out this time around, there are some glaring hints right now that the major pattern change to cold in November idea may be in some trouble

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