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Major Hurricane Sam


Jtm12180
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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs once again further south 

Still correcting southward

 

Dangerous to say "correcting" - its definitely adjusting, but it's wishcasting to say the southern bias is more accurate this far out. I'm definitely watching out for US landfalls.

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7 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

 Looks like GFS at hour 180 is  north  compared to 18z

 

4 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

And it’s a fish storm 

Gfs would be the last model I would use if the blocking is right. It struggles so bad even during the winter.

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10 hours ago, Amped said:

GFS has the vortex initialized at ~8.6N.   Invest position also looks way too far south.   I'm guessing it's actually at 10.5N-11N.   

https://i.imgur.com/HF8Bu2v.gif

 

Update: Visible satellite supports a 10.5N center.  The 12z early cycle guidance has it at 10N.   Still needs another cycle or 2 to close the gap.

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19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is way ots. Blocking isn't even close to what the Euro shows.

Euro just doesn't dig the troff.  Neither model handles the pattern well 8 days out and they don't even have the T0 position right.

 

Climo will probably win out here and it will end up re curving, as most ensembles show.

 

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5 minutes ago, Amped said:

Euro just doesn't dig the troff.  Neither model handles the pattern well 8 days out and they don't even have the T0 position right.

 

Climo will probably win out here and it will end up re curving, as most ensembles show.

 

Climb doesn't really exist anymore 

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24 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

This time of year, any erosion in the ridging is gonna lead to a recurve. Yes it may get closer, but someone posted how anomolous it is for a storm originating east of 55W to reach USML in October.

Agree

Euro has an opening and will go ots from here .

ecmwf_mslpa_atl_10.png

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OTS is not in stone and too far out. You still have a potential maritime block over New Foundland with a cutoff trough over the ECONUS. Can't rule out phase interaction with trough until we're in the midrange. Writing off to OTS at 220-240 hrs is... premature.

At least allow interaction time to move into the midrange to provide better timing and positional placement of features.




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  • Jtm12180 changed the title to Tropical Depression 18

Wow NHC already forecasting for a major this early, this might be the strongest 5 day for an initial forecast I’ve ever seen for the Atlantic. If i remember correctly I think the highest beforehand was 95 kts with Ida, Larry, and a group of other hurricanes though I can’t quite remember which ones

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So far September has been very underwhelming though Larry was impressive. 

A lot of sheared OTS storms but that's very likely to change and it starts with this system.

Although it's likely to go OTS it has a better chance of impacting the islands and even the east coast given the extremely complex setup. 

A lot of ridges and closed lows will make the track forecasts a lot more challenging than normal.

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  • Jtm12180 changed the title to Major Hurricane Sam

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