IronTy Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: GFS does a really cool shot next Monday from what I can see! Week out. Snowtober v2.0! Lock it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 From what I can see, the GFS is all over the place. And, as is normal, temps are rarely as cold as modeled at range. People need to remember that come winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: From what I can see, the GFS is all over the place. And, as is normal, temps are rarely as cold as modeled at range. People need to remember that come winter. Absolutely! We know, especially in transition seasons, that the GFS and EURO tend to mild up as we approach the time they think it was going to be very cool! Some cooler temps support is showing up on the Euro.. not close to as cool as the GFS, but at least below normal a bit longer before some warmer temps again. I am thinking the Mountains finally pull off some good frost and maybe a bit of the piedmont if we get lucky! Then we may need to wait again for another shot, but we are way in speculation time period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 WB EURO weeklies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 WB Euro Weekly Control: suppressed 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 lol Looking at that ridiculousness, I am reminded to not give in to any temptation to renew WB at this juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: lol Looking at that ridiculousness, I am reminded to not give in to any temptation to renew WB at this juncture. Totally useless. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Right where we want it outside of 1000 hours. 3 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Come on, it means as much as any other guidance this far out, which is not much!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 22 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB Euro Weekly Control: suppressed Already suppressed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 25 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB Euro Weekly Control: suppressed Not GFS but still applies 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 +PNA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: +PNA Hopefully that pattern continues beyond that. I’m looking forward to the sequel of the 1987 Veterans Day Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: +PNA Can’t happen. Ask Chuck 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Euro weeklies have a bit of a western Canada ridge to blunt the Pacific Puke™. Hope we see that all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Can’t happen. Ask Chuck I could have mentioned the higher h5 heights in the AO/NAO domains on that panel, but I didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 On 10/17/2021 at 1:41 PM, WxUSAF said: Airmass coming in for next weekend and early the following week looks like the first legit BN pattern in awhile. 50s for highs and frost/freeze potential for outer burbs. Yeah, not so much anymore. Looks like the boundary will stay nearby and while it will be a pleasant fall weekend, doesn’t look much BN anymore. Going to be a Hail Mary to get a freeze at any of the airports in October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 19, 2021 Author Share Posted October 19, 2021 55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, not so much anymore. Looks like the boundary will stay nearby and while it will be a pleasant fall weekend, doesn’t look much BN anymore. Going to be a Hail Mary to get a freeze at any of the airports in October. I still haven't had a freeze in Deep Creek. Lowest temp this fall has been 38 there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 27 minutes ago, nj2va said: I still haven't had a freeze in Deep Creek. Lowest temp this fall has been 38 there. Not even a frost at mine. Been checking the cameras past 2 mornings, nothing. Last year it was September 15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 A change is on the horizon for mid November according to HM and Ben 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Love to get our best winter pattern in mid November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Love to get our best winter pattern in mid November! Might even have to turn the heat on for a few nights. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Love to get our best winter pattern in mid November! Yeah, we had that in 2018. I wonder if it will get cold with all the -NAO potential this Winter. It's been popping with -PNA. I wonder what the next few Winter's will be like..If every -NAO/-PNA run together, eventually something has to happen or become more macro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 384hr GFS looks really good https://ibb.co/XY17hLZ I bet it will trend more -PNA/SE ridge, but if this holds, we did get 5.5" on Nov 15, 2018 here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 22, 2021 Author Share Posted October 22, 2021 GFS OP signaling first mountain flakes to coincide with that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Now someone explain to me...how the "It's only October" response works when folks start writing off this winter...when the la nina statistics look like this: (this is from the last 10 la ninas) I mean...isn't this like a slam dunk seasonal forecast given that only one aberration is 95/96?...I mean ya barely have to track because you know what it's gonna look like pretty much, lol Now the other ENSO states seem to be less predictable around here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Tasselmyer lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 54 minutes ago, CAPE said: Tasselmyer lol What's the rub on him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 I feel like I’m missing some context on that graphic because that’s confusing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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