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0.2-3.5" rainfall and OBS thread Wed-Thu Sept 8-9, 2021 may cause renewed flooding along and northwest of I95


wdrag
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Wantage NJ-this part of nw NJ 1.06 so far. 

Complex evolution but NYC/w CT should finally get some rain today, bigger amounts probably eastern LI CT River.  06z NAM must be a little too wound up to the west.  late HRRR is decent.  Wont be able to comment much til its all over. Will add 2 day COCoRAHS late Fri.

The HRRR STP/max 2-5KM UPDRAFT picked out the svr/heaviest rain axis pretty nicely for e central PA/ALB areas.

 

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10 hours ago, Pequest said:

Just over 2 inches of rain now here in central Warren County.....and still coming down. :(

Ended up with 2.83 in the overnight bucket.

Received about 12 inches of rain here in the last 3 weeks thanks to Henri, Ida and last night's complex of storms. 

Thankfully the basement thus far has remained dry.

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Looking ahead: 12z/18 EPS has noticeably more qpf than the GEFS for the entire subforum by the 25th and the EPS also has quite a bit of tropical near Bermuda around the 26th-27th, which is scarce on the 12z/18 GEFS.  GEFS is not doing much with the subsequent 5H short wave troughs after the 23rd.    The EPS may be a little abundant if the PW ends up less than 2" ~ the 23rd-always have to look at downside.  Short wave does look like its neutral if not a bit negative coming across the mid Atlantic coast ~the 23rd.  Could mean nice southerly inflow, spot severe associated with the sfc low?

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