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September Banter 2021


George BM
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13 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

See, I don’t really know, but I do have a hunch. Just from my observation, we get a lot of warnings that seem marginal when looking at radar signatures. Granted, my analysis is not professional. Same with severe thunderstorm warnings. I can’t tell you how many times we will get a warning come out here and the storm is basically nothing than a typical thunderstorm. But when I see warnings on the maps out in the plains, and then look at the radar, it’s like wow! The radar signatures there seem ominous. Just an observation with no facts to back it up. Just curious.

Its a good observation. Our 'severe' storms are lame compared to the plains lol. Its also worth noting that we've had two tropical systems come through, prompting quite a few warnings. 

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

Its a good observation. Our 'severe' storms are lame compared to the plains lol. Its also worth noting that we've had two tropical systems come through, prompting quite a few warnings. 

Our "severe" barely meet severe as defined.  However when they do show up, it's often when we least expect it and warnings may not be in time.

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JEBMAN RED ALERT, for potentially heavy rains over the Mid Atlantic / Washington Metropolitan Region.

You guys just keep right on piling it up! This, is what is gonna happen this winter, only then it will be SNOW.

...Update to include the Washington Metro area/portions of
northern Virginia into the Flash Flood Watch. The previous
discussion follows...

An upper-level trough will continue to dig over the Great Lakes
tonight while a cold front (currently over western Maryland)
moves into the area from the northwest.

A southerly flow has caused an unstable atmosphere with the
latest mesoanalysis showing around 1500-2500 MLCAPE near/east of
the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains. Convergence near the Blue
Ridge and Catoctin Mountains is increasing in response to the
approaching cold front from the northwest and an outflow
boundary that was seen on KLWX radar moving southeast to
northwest earlier this evening. At the same time, deep layer
shear and low-level shear are increasing in response to the
digging trough and falling heights. Therefore, it is likely that
showers and heavier thunderstorms will develop near the Blue
Ridge and Catoctin Mountains of northern VA and north-central
Maryland this evening, before slowly propagating southeast. A
few severe storms are possible due to the instability and shear,
with damaging winds being the primary threat. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of the eastern WV
panhandle, central MD, portions of northern VA, and the
Washington Metro area.

Also, with increasing moisture and a shear vector nearly
parallel to the approaching cold front, this suggests that
heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may train over any particular
area before the cold pool eventually takes over. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued for central and northeastern MD as well as
northern Virginia and the Washington Metro area where
confidence is highest for the potential of training convection
and Flash Flood Guidance is lower.

The stronger convection will shift toward southern MD overnight,
but more showers will likely persist as the upper-level trough
approaches and large scale lift ensues  due to the right
entrance of the upper-level jet strengthening overhead and the
cold front still nearby.

 

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16 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Beach would be awesome right now!

Swells from Larry, very warm temps!

I remember swells from Bonnie back in '98 very well.  It was quite strong just off Assateague beaches and there were red flags for rip currents which are best avoided unless you know what you can get into.

Mindy will probably cause swells too for the first few days of our trip, but we will be fine. Cannot wait to go

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Hey, my "friend" thought it would be funny if he logged in under the name SnowenInThere or something like an alt account and spam the site, this is not me. So just a heads up to the mods and such, I doubt he will but it would not be beyond him. In other words it is about as likely as Ji getting excited about a snow event but just in case wanted to make this message.  

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35 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Hey, my "friend" thought it would be funny if he logged in under the name SnowenInThere or something like an alt account and spam the site, this is not me. So just a heads up to the mods and such, I doubt he will but it would not be beyond him. In other words it is about as likely as Ji getting excited about a snow event but just in case wanted to make this message.  

no such name has joined. but thanks for the heads up.

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A nice upgrade coming to the CMC for the upcoming fall and winter. Implementation expected early next week (9/14). Here's a bit of a summary of the findings based on reanalysis of the parallel vs the current ops. 

Quote

GDPS 7.0.0 is a major upgrade which improve significantly forecast accuracy during evaluations against the previous version GDPS 6.1.0. Most of the improvements are related to a major upgrade of the atmospheric model GEM where physical parametrizations have been revisited in an effort towards the 'unification of the model physics' at the CMC. Indeed, the GDPS and RDPS are now very similar models in terms of the model physics settings, with only minor differences in parameters sensitive to resolution. In addition, the GDPS 7.0.0 features a resolution increase in both vertical and horizontal directions. The sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) analyses have also been significantly improved. During the two evaluation periods, improvements were seen in all upper-air and surface variables, throughout the forecast lead times but more notably for the first 120 hours with a reduction of 5 to 10 percent of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Precipitation is also improved in both seasons of the final cycles across North America. Objective evaluation of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts showed improvements in TC tracks, frequency and threat scores in GDPS-7.0.0 when compared to GDPS-6.1.0. These improvements are attributed to the major changes in the physical parametrizations of the atmospheric model, in particular the improved parametrization of convective momentum transfer in the deep convection scheme. Finally, objective scores obtained for the parallel run during spring 2019 clearly confirm the conclusion of the performance evaluation of the R and D phase for both upper air and surface evaluations, although the improvement is not as important. Indeed, spring being a transition season, evaluation results are a blend between the differences observed for the winter and summer seasons.

 

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