Major Hurricane Larry

[NorthHillsWx]

For all those talking about lack of good looking eyes every season: Are you not entertained???

[Windspeed]

Dropsonde recorded 957 mb at 9 kts. 102 kt SFMR in the northern eyewall. Likely a bit stronger in the NE eyewall based on relative motion. So the satellite intensity estimates are performing well as is the NHC's best track intensity guidance.

[Prospero]

28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

For all those talking about lack of good looking eyes every season: Are you not entertained???

I'm highly entertained. Especially being out over the open ocean.

Still, to me, not like the eyes we watched approaching the Yucatan last year. But still impressive even with Larry's occasional eye flaws.

[Maestrobjwa]

30 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

For all those talking about lack of good looking eyes every season: Are you not entertained???

Guess it only counts if it threatens the CONUS?...

[NorthHillsWx]

45 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Dropsonde recorded 957 mb at 9 kts. 102 kt SFMR in the northern eyewall. Likely a bit stronger in the NE eyewall based on relative motion. So the satellite intensity estimates are performing well as is the NHC's best track intensity guidance.

Just looked and you’re right. Also- that’s an amazingly wide eyewall! Holy crap. Glad we’re getting recon in this storm 

[Prospero]

Some serious powerful energy going on in there.

[Prismshine Productions]

Wow... All I can say...

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

[Torch Tiger]

I love hurricanes like these, Beautiful

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Maestrobjwa]

57 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Sweet mercy what did they do to that song? Lol (although...I hate to admit it...it does kinda work with the overall vibe)

[Windspeed]

Larry is pumping up the Atlantic's ACE. Based on its forecast alone, it should allow the Atlantic to overtake the EPAC and WPAC barring any potential development in those basins this week.

[WxWatcher007]

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Sweet mercy what did they do to that song? Lol (although...I hate to admit it...it does kinda work with the overall vibe)

I hadn’t even listened to the song lol

[Windspeed]

Larry's forward motion appears to be slowing. I suppose we're going to find out just how much shallow TCHP can support a 'cane this large. Another EWRC is underway. But Larry is not in any hurry to the NW on its current heading at the moment. Granted there is still plenty of deeper OHC to the northwest. Really at this point it's just a visual experiment on if Larry can maintain enough thermodynamic driven convection to fuel the even larger eyewall that is forming. There is a rather large region of 29°C SSTs northwest on its current heading. Should be enough to keep it a major hurricane through Thursday.

[Tezeta]

to be completely honest this is one of the stupidest storms I have ever witnessed

[Normandy]

Im imagining that what we see now is kind of the upper limit for intensity with Larry.  A cane this large needs serious juice to push CAT 4 or greater levels and I am not sure the waters It will traverse can support that. Would be interested to hear pro met thoughts on this.  Never the less beautiful storm

[Wannabehippie]

Larry's eye has opened up. It looks like some dry air has gotten entrained in.

 

[Tezeta]

1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said:

Larry's eye has opened up. It looks like some dry air has gotten entrained in.

 

Mirrored aviator lenses

[SnowLover22]

9 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Larry's forward motion appears to be slowing. I suppose we're going to find out just how much shallow TCHP can support a 'cane this large. Another EWRC is underway. But Larry is not in any hurry to the NW on its current heading at the moment. Granted there is still plenty of deeper OHC to the northwest. Really at this point it's just a visual experiment on if Larry can maintain enough thermodynamic driven convection to fuel the even larger eyewall that is forming. There is a rather large region of 29°C SSTs northwest on its current heading. Should be enough to keep it a major hurricane through Thursday.

Correct me if I am wrong but generally the larger the eye, the more stable the eye is and less susceptible it is to eye-wall replacement cycles. Fun fact btw, the largest eye ever recorded was around 230 miles across.

[Windspeed]

Correct me if I am wrong but generally the larger the eye, the more stable the eye is and less susceptible it is to eye-wall replacement cycles. Fun fact btw, the largest eye ever recorded was around 230 miles across.

Normally they are stable and less susceptible to them, however, Larry has a big issue here with upwelling due to its slow rate of motion. The circulation is already enormous and strong outer banding is moving over better heat content in the northwest seas leading out ahead of Larry's core. That's leading to two things here. 1) Less thermodynamic support for eyewall convection by the time it reaches those waters and 2), subsidence, which is helping to erode the eyewall leading to it being unstable. If Larry would pick up forwarding motion that would help alleviate its problems. But that's not going to occur in the short-term. There is still very warm SSTs east of Bermuda on its track. But the NHC has dropped down the intensity guidance.

[Windspeed]

[Amped]

Larry's outflow should get captured by the right entrance region of a jet streak over the next 24-48hrs.  This might be able to intensify it again assuming the water is warm enough and the structure isn't too degraded.

[Amped]

Larry just needs a few more splotches before 11pm and NHC will likely upgrade it to a Jackson Pollock painting.

 

 

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Will anyone remember Larry except hardcore wx weenies? Doubtful.

 

[sojitodd]

31 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Will anyone remember Larry except hardcore wx weenies? Doubtful.

 

How much trouble might Larry cause the Avalon Peninsula/St. John?  They might remember it if all goes right(wrong for them).  Probably will only graze them though so ya, likely a storm only for the hardcore cane weenies.

[Windspeed]

Larry's structure has improved some this evening thanks to some convective bursting rotating around the eyewall. Larry's forward motion appears to finally be increasing as well. It's possible that Larry's core may have gained enough forward motion to counter the rate of significant upwelling. Not expecting anything impressive as far as reintensification tomorrow, but that is usually when surprises occur [in my case]. If nothing else, perhaps it might restrengthen enough to avoid losing major hurricane status the next few days. It is barely a Cat 3, and though 850 hPa winds are still between 100-110 kts, the SFMR data was perhaps only supportive of 90 kts. Could have been undersampling, but, at any rate, Larry appears to be holding its own if not rebounding a bit tonight. This remains an enormous hurricane in size and wind field, which should act as a deterrent to significant strengthening.

[Prospero]

55 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Will anyone remember Larry except hardcore wx weenies? Doubtful.

 

I will. My best fried is named Larry. He lives in the SF Bay Area and we talked on the phone yesterday about many things. Then he asked me if I knew the name of the hurricane going on. LOL

I knew long before he had even heard of it. "Of course I know, I follow storms."

Funny he is on a four layover flight from SF to visit his family in NYC right now. I hope he gets some rain or some kind of weather from Larry while he is there.

[Hazey]

Surf and swells for most on the northeast. Igor redux for St. John’s.


#NovaScotiaStrong

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Hazey said:

Surf and swells for most on the northeast. Igor redux for St. John’s.


#NovaScotiaStrong

Yep

[OSUmetstud]

I usually do most of my weather stuff on twitter nowadays but I'll provide some updates. 

The bifurcation between the gfs emcwf and gdps and their ensembles compared to the hmon hwrf and coamps is interesting. Hurricane models are near or just east of the avalon whereas the globals track over placentia bay/western avalon Peninsula. Makes a huge difference re: wind damage. 

This is not Igor. Igor was basically fully et/post tropical. It had been embedded with a 500mb trough in excess of 12 h...so much so that even though it made landfall in Cape Race it produce hurricane force winds all the way back northwest to Bonavista. Strong winds with Larry will be mostly found east and south of track. Also, rainfall doesn't appear to be a big deal with this one which was really Igor's most damaging element. The stationary front is well to to west over the Maritimes and not in east central Newfoundland like it was with Igor. 

If Larry does take the western avalon/placentia Bay track than the wind damage could be worse for stj and the avalon than it was for Igor. 

 

[Scorpion]

I’d love to experience a hurricane up there sometime. Beautiful northern forest and hurricane force winds. Would just set myself up on an exposed ridge on an observation tower. Probably be hard to stay warm though.