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Major Hurricane Ida


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But probable
Just like everyone saying it's heading to New Orleans.
Models can only do so much. Especially during the fact that you have a TC strengthening. 
I can tell you that the current center fix with a strengthening center is already too far east and curving to make landfall in New Orleans.
It's going to be east. 
So, in reading this.... It looks like there is no risk to NOLA other than wind damage. There is NO risk of storm surge inside the new levee system (according to forecasts)....

I find that disconcerting in a way. It seems like the Titanic when it was deemed "unsinkable."

Exact text:

STORM SURGE - No storm surge inundation forecast - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm surge flooding - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding. Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip currents are possible. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding are needed. - ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor forecasts. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.


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3 minutes ago, mempho said:

So, in reading this.... It looks like there is no risk to NOLA other than wind damage. There is NO risk of storm surge inside the new levee system (according to forecasts)....

I find that disconcerting in a way. It seems like the Titanic when it was deemed "unsinkable."

Exact text:



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Katrina was 16 years and billions of dollars in flood protection ago.  The levees won’t be topped.  The main concern for within the protected areas are wind and rain as the pumps can only pump a certain amount of rainfall per hour

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Katrina was 16 years and billions of dollars in flood protection ago.  The levees won’t be topped.  The main concern for within the protected areas are wind and rain as the pumps can only pump a certain amount of rainfall per hour
I understand that... I was just stating that it felt disconcerting for them to actually say that in the warning text.

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Katrina was 16 years and billions of dollars in flood protection ago.  The levees won’t be topped.  The main concern for within the protected areas are wind and rain as the pumps can only pump a certain amount of rainfall per hour
Also- question here from someone who knows nothing about the new system. Does this new system protect against even the most intense hurricanes imaginable?

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2 minutes ago, mempho said:

I understand that... I was just stating that it felt disconcerting for them to actually say that in the warning text.

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Quote

There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.

They did not exactly say no threat-they hedged their bets with the "little to no" threat. 

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Appears to be heading steadily towards the mouth of the Mississippi or within 25 miles west of that for landfall, and it reminds me of the 1900 Galveston hurricane which probably peaked around landfall at cat-4. 

I will take their word for the reduced surge threat where the levees are in place but what about water flooding up from the Gulf through low-lying areas west of the River? Has that been fortified at all? It has probably been quite a long time since this type of inundation occurred so close to greater New Orleans, cases that come to mind were further west. 

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Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 0:54Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Name: Ida
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 23 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 0:34:52Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.73N 87.73W
B. Center Fix Location: 258 statute miles (416 km) to the S (187°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,827m (9,275ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 967mb (28.56 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 130° at 10kts (From the SE at 12mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 87kts (100.1mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the NW (309°) of center fix at 0:32:28Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 40° at 74kts (From the NE at 85.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the WNW (294°) of center fix at 0:28:54Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 85kts (97.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix at 0:40:20Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 135° at 91kts (From the SE at 104.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix at 0:40:34Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,071m (10,075ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NE (54°) from the flight level center at 0:40:34Z
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7 minutes ago, mempho said:

Also- question here from someone who knows nothing about the new system. Does this new system protect against even the most intense hurricanes imaginable?

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I don’t know the exact design standards but I am certain they were designed for Cat 5+  The old levee system was flawed and everyone in the USACE knew it.

anyway this is banter so we should focus on the storm for now.

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3 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

I don’t know the exact design standards but I am certain they were designed for Cat 5+  The old levee system was flawed and everyone in the USACE knew it.

anyway this is banter so we should focus on the storm for now.

It was designed for a 1 in 100 year storm and 15 ft of surge. 

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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Major Hurricane Ida

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