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September 2021


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18 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

From NWS NYC Twitter:

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms near Lake Erie may reach the area tonight. If the current track and timing holds, it would be after 2Z — which is 10 PM EDT



and with the strong lapse rates and decent surface heating there's a chance for this to evolve into some kind of MCC-like feature?

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19 hours ago, lee59 said:

Even though Arctic seas ice has been on the decline, so far this season it is higher than previous seasons and higher than the 2010s average. The question is will it continue or is it just an aberration.

Yes, but it's lower than the average for each decade prior to the 2010s. Sea ice has declined decade over decade since at least the 1980s.

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WE ARE WEDDED TO >>>>>  GLOBAL WARMING >>>>>> TILL 'HEAT DEATH' DO US PART...........................    Divorce Proceedings by the 29th?    lol


Do not forget this little dalliance from just last November:

2020-11-04 62 40 51.0 -0.6 14 0 0.00 0.0 0
2020-11-05 67 52 59.5 8.2 5 0 0.00 0.0 0
2020-11-06 70 56 63.0 12.0 2 0 0.00 0.0 0
2020-11-07 74 56 65.0 14.4 0 0 0.00 0.0 0
2020-11-08 75 56 65.5 15.2 0 1 0.00 0.0 0
2020-11-09 75 54 64.5 14.5 0 0 0.00 0.0 0
2020-11-10 74 60 67.0 17.3 0 2 0.00 0.0 0
2020-11-11 72 64 68.0 18.6 0 3 0.78 0.0 0
2020-11-12 68 46 57.0 7.9 8 0 0.24 0.0 0
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At 7:30 pm, an area of showers and thunderstorms stretched from south of Rochester to north of Williamsport. That area was heading east-southeastward. As a result, parts of the region could see a shower or thunderstorm tonight. The potential exists for any storms to be quite strong. Sunshine will return tomorrow and it will be a bit cooler than tomorrow.

The latest ensemble guidance has backed off the development of a sustained PNA- near or just after mid-September. A sustained PNA- typically sees a higher frequency of large rainfall (1" or more daily precipitation) in and around the New York City area during September.

A warm September outcome remains on track. Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days (for example, the 9/1-7 anomaly was -2.5° in New York City and the 9/1-10 anomaly was -1.6° in New York City), September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. The second half of the month could feature above to perhaps much above normal temperatures. As a result, 2021 is increasingly likely to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was +27.75 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.849 today.

On September 11 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.417 (RMM). The September 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.303 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (1.8° above normal).


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2 hours ago, A Moonlit Sky said:

Yes, but it's lower than the average for each decade prior to the 2010s. Sea ice has declined decade over decade since at least the 1980s.

Yes it is not looking good in the Arctic. It is nice to see a glimmer of hope every once in a while. I don't expect it to continue, we shall see.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny. It will remain warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region.  Central New Jersey southward will likely see readings in the middle and upper 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 79°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 86°


New York City: 30-Year: 77.0°; 15-Year: 77.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 78.5°; 15-Year: 79.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 79.7°; 15-Year: 80.2°

Generally warmer than normal weather will continue through the week.

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The next 8 days are averaging 77degs.(70/84), or +8.

Month to date is  71.3[-0.9].         Could be  73.3[+2.4] by the 22nd.

Should be in upper 70's today with variable wind directions and some clouds.

Reached 87 here yesterday.

70*(92%RH) here at 6am, dirty blue skies.        74*  at Noon.       77* at 4pm.          Reached 79* at 4:30pm.


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With Newark adding another 70° low yesterday, it’s getting closer to the all-time record.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 
Missing Count
1 1973 62 0
2 2011 59 0
3 2005 58 0
4 2021 57 109
- 2020 57 0
- 2010 57 0
5 1993 55 0
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The puppy days of late summer as we ride above normal overall into the longer range.  After today's cooldown Wed (9/15) looks to reach 90 , especially in the warmer spots in what will end a 2 + weeks period without 90s.  Beyond there  - warm and we watch cut off lows from the ridge producing onshore and keeping it warm but next shot at 90s would likely come Sat or Sun (pending on clouds and easterly flow). Nicholas remnants look aimed at GL/OV but at some point those storms and precip comes east.  ULL in the Atlantic nearby the coast as well.  So we have to see how much of the period 9/18 - 9/22 is clouds and onshore and potentially showery, rainy.

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