September 2021

[lee59]

Down to 61 degrees, feeling like early fall, finally.

[Snowlover11]

beautiful weather! going out on the boat today.

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of September  are averaging 67degs.(60/75), or +2.

Month to date is  71.7[1+4].         September should end near  70.8[+1.6].

Reached 76* here yesterday.

Today: 73-76, variable wind, some clouds late.

9/27-10/03....N, BN.  10/04-11+....AN

61*(76%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.     65* at 9am.       67* at 10am.       70* at Noon         73* at 3pm.       76* at 4pm.       Reached 77* at 4:30pm.

 

[wdrag]

For now, very little to favor widespread qpf late Sept 30-Oct3 with 00z/25 ensembles a little further se.  Still think it's not impossible for a closer in low (separate from Sam).

In the meantime, if we cant muster the quarter inch late Monday-Wed morning, then we will probably miss out on a 10" Sept for CP.  UK is drier on this than most other modeling.

Tonight: Still interesting to watch this neg tilt 500MB short wave response NYC eastward late today/tonight. 

[the_other_guy]

54F

Starting to notice the first colors on the trees in Westchester this morning 

Crisp fall morning

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and pleasantly warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. A few locations could reach or exceed 80°.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°

Newark: 79°

Philadelphia: 77°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 72.7°; 15-Year: 73.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 74.3°; 15-Year: 75.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.5°; 15-Year: 76.6°

Tomorrow will be another sun-filled day.

[ForestHillWx]

Tickled the upper 40s this morning. At 52 now. 

[bluewave]

Record breaking omega block this week with 580 dm heights near Hudson Bay.

 

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Record breaking omega block this week with 580 dm heights near Hudson Bay.

 

 

Thankfully a trough looks to keep Sam away from the coast ( as of right now)

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like your area will probably finish with a top 3 warmest September minimum temperature. Model blends have a low near 50° at HPN for the last day of September. But lows closer to normal for the last week of September definitely feel more fall-like compared to recent experience.

1991-2020 new average low for HPN on 9-30 is 51°
 

White Plains, NY
   Sunny    Sunny    Sunny    Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Ptcldy   Ptcldy
     /73    56/71    54/73    58/72    52/67    50/66    50/66
      /00    10/10    00/00    20/30    30/20    10/10    10/10

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	52	6
2	2018	51	0
3	2008	48	0
-	2002	48	0
-	1999	48	2
-	1968	48	0

52 this morning

[lee59]

53 here this morning.

[SACRUS]

Down to 50 and now up to 68 and bright sunshine. This will make three very nice weekends in a row.   GFS would have a 4 peat and ECM not so much next weekend.  ECM is cut off ULL city from mid week  9/30 on the GFS keeps the ULL into northeast.  SO will be a matter of progression to see much rain/clouds cool we can get in the 10/2 - 10/5 period.  Sam looks just a bit outside the coast.  beyond that heights look to rise towards the second week of Oct.  12 hours of daylight today as we descend into the dregs of the longer days.

 

Just a great next fews days at least in tap 70s / 50s and lots of sun.

[wdrag]

I probably should throw in the towel on anything significant Sept 30-Oct 3;  but 12z/25 GEFS still wants to separate the streams with a closed low 'trying' to form near the mid Atlantic coast, whereas the EPS has vigorous closed low up near Maine and no opportunity for significant qpf after Wednesday morning. Strange, that the EPS brings SAM closer than then the GEFS in this pattern.  

I guess I look at it like this: climatologically it rains every 3 days or so (trace included).  I think we're pretty much assured of measurable Tuesday. After that, next measurable??

I'll check back if 12z/25 GEFS looks to be more accurate than the 12z/25 EPS, or Tuesday, whichever comes first. 

[lee59]

It seems in my area this season, we get very heavy rain over a 24 hour period and then very little or nothing for the next 2-3 weeks.

[Rtd208]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

I probably should throw in the towel on anything significant Sept 30-Oct 3;  but 12z/25 GEFS still wants to separate the streams with a closed low 'trying' to form near the mid Atlantic coast, whereas the EPS has vigorous closed low up near Maine and no opportunity for significant qpf after Wednesday morning. Strange, that the EPS brings SAM closer than then the GEFS in this pattern.  

I guess I look at it like this: climatologically it rains every 3 days or so (trace included).  I think we're pretty much assured of measurable Tuesday. After that, next measurable??

I'll check back if 12z/25 GEFS looks to be more accurate than the 12z/25 EPS, or Tuesday, whichever comes first. 

I can honestly see it being pretty quiet weather wise over the next couple of weeks outside of a couple of minor events and anything tropical that could impact us. We'll see.

[bluewave]

It looks like NYC may finally drop below 55° next week. HPN could also see the first 40s of the fall. This would be very late for these temperature benchmarks at both stations. 
 

Latest first day below 55° in NYC

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
2015	06-04 (2015)	54	10-02 (2015)	48	119
1910	06-08 (1910)	53	10-02 (1910)	54	115
1921	06-05 (1921)	54	10-01 (1921)	52	117
1908	05-16 (1908)	53	09-30 (1908)	52	136
2005	06-02 (2005)	54	09-29 (2005)	54	118
2003	06-17 (2003)	53	09-29 (2003)	53	103
2002	06-08 (2002)	53	09-29 (2002)	54	112
1968	06-21 (1968)	53	09-29 (1968)	53	99
1930	06-01 (1930)	50	09-29 (1930)	53	119
1970	05-30 (1970)	50	09-27 (1970)	54	119
2016	06-09 (2016)	54	09-25 (2016)	54	107

Latest first 40s at HPN

 

First/Last Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
2018	06-12 (2018)	49	10-12 (2018)	47	121
2017	06-09 (2017)	47	09-29 (2017)	47	111
2002	06-08 (2002)	48	09-29 (2002)	48	112
1970	05-30 (1970)	44	09-29 (1970)	42	121
1968	05-28 (1968)	46	09-29 (1968)	49	123
2005	05-25 (2005)	46	09-28 (2005)	46	125
2015	06-02 (2015)	48	09-27 (2015)	47	116
1980	06-14 (1980)	47	09-27 (1980)	44	104
2016	05-21 (2016)	48	09-25 (2016)	44	126

[CIK62]

What is going on here on the EURO?         The area that is hanging back from SAM  'hangs on' for at least 72 hours of 40mph gusts{from N} near here, starting at 168hrs.(not shown)     The GFS and CMC have this is in a minor way only.

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Monday will be fair and pleasantly warm days. Afterward, a cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region on Tuesday.

The MJO had recently been locked in Phase 3 at a high amplitude, frequently in excess of 1.500. Only 2006 and 2009 saw the MJO in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 2 or more days during September 10-20. Both years saw September end with a cold shot that continued into the first days of October. Both days saw Central Park's temperature fall to 49° on September 30. The guidance has now come into better agreement concerning a cool shot to end the month. Afterward, in the MJO cases, a fairly sharp rebound in temperatures followed. October wound up wetter than normal with 7.07" rainfall in 2006 and 5.58" of rainfall in 2009. Normal rainfall (1991-2020) is 4.38".

2021 remains on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

There is increasing consensus on the long-range guidance that October will be an unseasonably warm month. The first half could feature much above normal readings in the Northern Plains into Central Canada.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was -15.92 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.142 today.

On September 23 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.946 (RMM). The September 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.305 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.4° (1.2° above normal).

 

[SACRUS]

9/25

EWR: 79
New Brnswck: 78
BLM: 77
LGA: 77
ACY: 77
JFK: 76
TTN: 76
ISP: 76
TEB: 76
PHL: 76
NYC: 75

[donsutherland1]

Under partly sunny skies with temperatures in the 70s, it was another fine late September beach day.

 

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of September are averaging 67(60/75), or +2.

Month to date is  71.4[+1.2].        September should end near  70.7[+1.5].

Today:  72-77, w.,nw. wind-gusty, p. sunny.

Reached 77* here yesterday.

Oct. 3-10 looking continuously gusty here.

Bermuda wiped out next Sat. PM?

62*(76%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.      64* at 9am.        67* at Noon.       68* at 1pm.        70* at 2pm.      73* at 4pm.    Reached 74* at 5:30pm.

[wdrag]

13 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

I can honestly see it being pretty quiet weather wise over the next couple of weeks outside of a couple of minor events and anything tropical that could impact us. We'll see.

Probably correct. I still think modeling is separating streams. I think  by tomorrow morning we'll know if the dry quiet is correct.  Right now, I'm unconvinced.

[bluewave]

This coming week is another example of needing record blocking to get below normal temperatures in our area.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and pleasantly warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 73°

Newark: 77°

Philadelphia: 75°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 72.3°; 15-Year: 73.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 73.8°; 15-Year: 75.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.1°; 15-Year: 76.3°

Tomorrow will be a very warm day.

[SACRUS]

52 last night after a high of 80 yesterday.  On the way to mid/upper 70s.  Mon (9/27) and Tue (9/28) look like the warmest for potentially (the year) with highs 80/ low 80s in the warmer spots. Not to say it wont warm up which it looks likely by Oct 6, but dont think we exceed Mon/Tue maxes till spring. 

  Front come sthrough Tue later so clouds could spoil the warmest readings on Tuesday.   ECM /  GFS cutt ULL ville 9/29 and on but keep the brunt of the rain north of the area.  Cooler shot by Thu (9/30) - Sun (10/3) as ULL pulls down N/NNW flow.  Once we clear the ULL towards the first full week of Oct, ridging looks to rebuild into the east and warm things up.   GFS would have California style weather (overall) the next 10 days but I suspect we see clouds and rain chances with the ULL and stalled up pattern evolve.

[SACRUS]

Another marvelous day today

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This coming week is another example of needing record blocking to get below normal temperatures in our area.

 

Luckily Sam is going OTS 

[the_other_guy]

13 hours ago, lee59 said:

It seems in my area this season, we get very heavy rain over a 24 hour period and then very little or nothing for the next 2-3 weeks.

Its insanity.

Every rain storm does damage to my property.

Limbs down, small mudslides, leaves everywhere. I redid my patio in the spring and its already a mess.

 

 

 

[MJO812]

[rclab]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Good afternoon Anthony. It’s my hope that they’ll be used to plow snow instead of salt. As always ….