Phillycane Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Storm Surge Warming just came through for UES 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This might really nudge east but I wouldn’t base that on the Nam. Very subtle interactions will shift the track. a butterfly farting in China could affect this track for all we know. The margin of error here is pretty large given the limited lead time, all we can really say is somewhere between Jersey shore and Cape Cod with emphasis on somewhere between Jones Beach and Montauk I'd say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 15 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Too many week + long power outages here in recent years. I'm a little excited, but it's just not the same as it used to be. FYI, for those fortunate enough to live elsewhere, Long Island lags behind most third world countries when it comes to the power grid. 14 years in Massapequa, the rest of my life in Texas, a week plus no power each hurricane, rolling blackouts for a once every 30 year cold spell (it is rare, but people know we'll have those cold spells), Long Island is not as third world as we are. Wind farms in Iowa work in Winter, and as gas turbines make most of the electricity, and most Texans in cold weather use natural gas heat, creating shortages, well, 3 days below freezing and half of those 3 days w/o power, we're behind. Texas Ed M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Don't get me started. LILCO had power back in 2 days after Belle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, JonClaw said: Thanks EAS for the heart attack this evening... NYC now under a storm surge warning and TS warning. I got one of those too. My first one! Annoyed the hell out of me because it interrupted the Yankees game and I missed them scoring a few runs lol. Anyhow. looks like they might be considering evacuating Fire Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phillycane said: Storm Surge Warming just came through for UES Same here in Westchester (2nd time today). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I stand by my C LI. I think this is going to be a hard hit and right into the Sayville area. East side is winds, surge and heavy rain. West is a heck of a lot of rain. Then there is the stall. This is a potential disaster in the making. I try to be conservative. I try to not raise an alarm. This is not one of those times I can afford to be more measured. It is time to be prepared. Henri is beginning to get its act together and a quick bout of intensification over the gulf stream could spell disaster for LI/SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Anyhow. looks like they might be considering evacuating Fire Island? With a surge of 2 to 4 feet, I hope they do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: I stand by my C LI. I think this is going to be a hard hit and right into the Sayville area. East side is winds, surge and heavy rain. West is a heck of a lot of rain. Then there is the stall. This is a potential disaster in the making. I try to be conservative. I try to not raise an alarm. This is not one of those times I can afford to be more measured. It is time to be prepared. Henri is beginning to get its act together and a quick bout of intensification over the gulf stream could spell disaster for LI/SNE. Imo unless you're on the east side of this storm it's just a rainy day until you get to inland areas near streams and rivers and then it's a big big problem. So if this storm ends up east of LI the only areas that should worry are inland (outside our subforum) and maybe low lying areas on LI sound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, JonClaw said: With a surge of 2 to 4 feet, I hope they do! No one should be on Fire Island for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 What are the chances of a low end Cat 2? Is that in the realm of possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, sferic said: What are the chances of a low end Cat 2? Is that in the realm of possibility? Very unlikely but who knows. Models don't handle TC intensity very well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 GFS scrapes Montauk at 988mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, sferic said: What are the chances of a low end Cat 2? Is that in the realm of possibility? Not an expert, but between no models showing Cat 2 and 12 to 24 hours over sub 26C water, no. Probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Imo unless you're on the east side of this storm it's just a rainy day until you get to inland areas near streams and rivers and then it's a big big problem. So if this storm ends up east of LI the only areas that should worry are inland (outside our subforum) and maybe low lying areas on LI sound. Seriously, keep the east ticks going. There would still be tree/power line damage and some flooding with being on the west side since we’ve been so wet over the summer and it won’t take much wind to knock trees down but its beyond better than the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Seriously, keep the east ticks going. There would still be tree/power line damage and some flooding with being on the west side since we’ve been so wet over the summer and it won’t take much wind to knock trees down but its beyond better than the east side. I don't think there will be any winds over 50mph on the west side of this but I supposed we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: inland (outside our subforum) 2 minutes ago, sferic said: What are the chances of a low end Cat 2? Is that in the realm of possibility? The window for anything more than a mid-range Cat 1 is closing, if it hasn't already. Recon and sat loops show the LLC still decoupled from coldest cloud tops. By the time it gets some semblance of structural organization, it'll start running into SST and shear issues once again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: Stop pretending like you want flooding lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Rjay said: Stop pretending like you want flooding lol Just a little ponding on roadways, as a treat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 well that’s disappointing was hoping for some nice rain and wind, now at best gusty showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Stop pretending like you want flooding lol Stop pretending that you don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Why would NHC bring track considerably west at 11pm before globals come out? I would think they could have waited until 5am to make changes. Nam, Rgem, and now GFS have tracked over extreme eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Why would NHC bring track considerably west at 11pm before globals come out? I would think they could have waited until 5am to make changes. Nam, Rgem, and now GFS have tracked over extreme eastern LI. This could easily trend back west tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 My cone. If i had to narrow it I would move the western edge 25 miles east and wouldn't touch the eastern edge. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This could easily trend back west tomorrow I know it can but why make the changes tonight. Nam and rgem had trended east as did the gfs a little later, plus euro is a big run tonight as well. I just don't understand why they made that westward shift at 11pm instead of waiting for 5am update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This could easily trend back west tomorrow It could but as some have been saying I think we are coming to a consensus and narrowing the goal posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I think a Storm Surge Warning and even Tropical Storm Warning is overdoing it for Western L.I. westward based on model trends, even Central L.I. might very well escape the brunt. This seems like an Eastern L.I. and southeast New England special to me. Even the rain doesn't seem all that prolific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 For the immediate NYC metro and NE NJ I would be more concerned with a heavy rain/flood threat from a PRE or Henri itself. There will probably be a few unexpected surprises in store for portions on the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Canadian splits Montauk and Block Island 993mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 44 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I stand by my C LI. I think this is going to be a hard hit and right into the Sayville area. East side is winds, surge and heavy rain. West is a heck of a lot of rain. Then there is the stall. This is a potential disaster in the making. I try to be conservative. I try to not raise an alarm. This is not one of those times I can afford to be more measured. It is time to be prepared. Henri is beginning to get its act together and a quick bout of intensification over the gulf stream could spell disaster for LI/SNE. If this stalls somewhat north of the area, wouldn't it mean that's where the most rain will be? Let's say it stalls in the Catskills, would we be out of the heavy rainfall when it stalls there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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