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Tropical Storm Fred


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2 hours ago, yotaman said:

Every storm is a potential Katrina to JB.

I can’t stand Katrina comparisons and wish pro Mets would stop trying to drum up attention for their posts. This isn’t even named and to see a Katrina comparison, even if it’s based on pattern not storm composition, is irresponsible and not helpful 

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21 hours ago, Prospero said:

Been waking up and watching. We need the rain in Gulfport, FL. This time of year we take all we can get, because it starts to really dry up up soon.

 

 

I was just in your neck of the woods, last month.  Went to St. Pete Beach and drove through Gulfport.  Beautiful area.  Stay safe.

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12 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I was just in your neck of the woods, last month.  Went to St. Pete Beach and drove through Gulfport.  Beautiful area.  Stay safe.

Thanks!

Several models have something near or over us around the 15th. We'll be watching of course, and the 15th is a Sunday so better for any preparations if needed.

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2 hours ago, yotaman said:

Every storm is a potential Katrina to JB.

People forget Katrina was about as perfect of a setup as you could get. Camped out over the loop current, low shear and great outflow. It kicking so far west over the Gulf in the warmest part of the year is what helped it explode. Hurricane force winds extending out 100 miles is insane, that would be the equivalent of the eyewall making landfall here in Charleston & having hurricane winds in Columbia

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Outflow looks awesome at the moment, the upper level anticyclone is really helping fan out. New deep convection keeps firing over the estimated center and this sustained convection will see pressure falls shortly. I’m convinced we have a cyclone, in visible you can clearly see what looks like a vigorous SW and SE component to low level cloud motion, and this screams to me that the fully closed circulation is there underneath the convective envelope. Further, we now have radar data and it appears to show a cyclone at this time. As for intensity, the hurricane hunters did not find TS winds, however since that time, some pockets of 40-45kt height based estimates exist, so it’s definitely on the threshold of a TS. Given the favorable upper level pattern and position in the far eastern Caribbean Sea in peak season, the short term prospects for intensification look promising. If it’s able to develop a core and mix out dry air (mid level dry air should not prevent strengthening with little shear to mix it into the circulation, assuming circulation is well established) I see no reason why this won’t be a mid-high grade tropical storm AT LEAST when it starts to interact with the Hispaniola. Not going to forecast intensity beyond there, there are too many variables, but if the circulation survives and remains vigorous regardless of wind speed, the environment becomes very favorable east of Florida. 

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I will say, Southeast Florida has been extremely lucky. Frances could've rolled right into Miami as a Cat 4, instead it sputtered, weakened and sloshed ashore much further north. Had Katrina had an extra 24 hrs over the Bahamas, it would have been a major hurricane over Fort Lauderdale. Matthew just grazed Southeast Florida as a late season Cat 4, and Irma took that south dive into Cuba and the Keys. To say nothing of Dorian, which stopped just offshore West Palm Beach as a 180 mph storm.

 

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6 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

12z HWRF takes it right into me as a major hurricane. I'm starting to get quite excited! 5 pm advisory will obviously shift track towards SE FL. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2021-08-10 at 1.57.03 PM.png

This weekend you’ll be posting about how you are getting ready for the wicked outer bands and then how disappointed you are with the weak outer bands as the system misses you by a large margin. 

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Just now, TPAwx said:

This weekend you’ll be posting about how you are getting ready for the wicked outer bands and then how disappointed you are with the weak outer bands as the system misses you by a large margin. 

Storm is actually coming on Shabbos so I won't be posting at all when it comes in. Good thing I just got a weather radio, so I can receive the NHC and NWS updates during Shabbos without touching any technology. 

After work today I am definitely stocking up on water, bread, and non-perishables, by tomorrow stores will be cleared out the way this is looking. 

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4 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Best of the year even early in its life.

Trying to upload a clip but keep this getting:

Sorry, an unknown server error occurred when uploading this file.
(Error code: -200)
 
So here is a link:
 

Looks like the kind of storm that could quickly form a tight core and consolidate after come back over water

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Please be careful buying into specific model runs at this juncture especially as it pertains to Florida impacts. I’d focus more on large scale factors at this point considering the uncertainty of land interaction and state of the system afterwards. I will say, this one has a high ceiling especially if the models showing the decreasing shear and favorable shear vectors are correct 

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Please be careful buying into specific model runs at this juncture especially as it pertains to Florida impacts. I’d focus more on large scale factors at this point considering the uncertainty of land interaction and state of the system afterwards. I will say, this one has a high ceiling especially if the models showing the decreasing shear and favorable shear vectors are correct 

This. Buyer beware. 

I think the ceiling is certainly higher than 24 hours ago, but land interaction is still a big wildcard IMO. It looks like unlike earlier model runs, the upper level environment in the Gulf is going to be more favorable for organization and/or intensification. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This. Buyer beware. 

I think the ceiling is certainly higher than 24 hours ago, but land interaction is still a big wildcard IMO. It looks like unlike earlier model runs, the upper level environment in the Gulf is going to be more favorable for organization and/or intensification. 

By tomorrow we will know for sure what's gonna happen, cause by afternoon/evening it will have either went north of Hispaniola or right into Hispaniola. Even by tonight things will become clearer. If center crosses central/eastern Puerto Rico, then it will miss Hispaniola. If it crosses westernmost Puerto Rico, or even goes west of Puerto Rico, then it's hitting Hispaniola, and weaker solution shown by NHC 11 am advisory would unfold. 

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3 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Did they fly into the storm today? Thought it was mentioned.

Yes, and the recon data was ingested into the 12z HWRF. They were saying that this 12z HWRF would be the clearest picture we had yet of what would happen, and they said that before the run unfolded. They must be very surprised at the results. 

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2 hours ago, Prospero said:

Thanks!

Several models have something near or over us around the 15th. We'll be watching of course, and the 15th is a Sunday so better for any preparations if needed.

I'd go ahead and retract your Sunsetter awning now to be safe

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Hrmm... There MAY be a surface circulation forming north of the older sharper axis boundary to the south, which had weak mid level cyclonic rotation. Banding is definitely getting strong there and orienting in a W to E flow, even if subtle. Something to watch.8318845c20695ba51abb793ed6b562e8.gif

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4 minutes ago, Muhammad2922 said:

Growing of a significant hurricane risk for upper gulf coast anywhere from Al / Fl panhandle . Most global models show significant pressure falls. 

d2bea728734c3dc86a0cc745b44c80b7.png Australian model

 

Weather.us - Google Chrome (gyazo.com)  Skorean model ( 10km resolution very good)  

Cmc was posted before.  Building anticyclone / high rh humidity and extremely warm gulf favor a sig hurricane to form.  2 ull will enhance outflow channels in models as welll. 

A lot depends on land interaction with Hispaniola, will be an interesting 24 hours

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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Tropical Storm Fred

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