Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    joxey
    Newest Member
    joxey
    Joined

August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?


Damage In Tolland
 Share

Recommended Posts

When/if anyone re-engages with this thread.. .

That's an impressive non-hydrostatic heat signal in the operational GFS extending across some four or even five days ...from ~ Tue thru next Sun

The Euro has it too, but ...it also ripples a blocking/ridge node through the flow, over southern Canada .., with more amplitude and this feature piles up a surface high that interrupts it.  But the D8 to 10 looks hot afterward.

This has been really been in the guidance for some time but obviously ..Henri's held attention spans captive.  

We are late in the season for big heat. Obviously we've seen 90 to 100 in early September, so history demo's it is not impossible.  But it is getting notable to have +17 to +20 850 MB air over the southern Lakes, lower OV and M/A regions, should the oper. GFS near historic 500 mb non-hydro heights over top.   We are past the solar max, so we need less clouds ...favorable wind directions and so on to not interfere. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

When/if anyone re-engages with this thread.. .

That's an impressive non-hydrostatic heat signal in the operational GFS extending across some four or even five days ...from ~ Tue thru next Sun

The Euro has it too, but ...it also ripples a blocking/ridge node through the flow, over southern Canada .., with more amplitude and this feature piles up a surface high that interrupts it.  But the D8 to 10 looks hot afterward.

This has been really been in the guidance for some time but obviously ..Henri's held attention spans captive.  

We are late in the season for big heat. Obviously we've seen 90 to 100 in early September, so history demo's it is not impossible.  But it is getting notable to have +17 to +20 850 MB air over the southern Lakes, lower OV and M/A regions, should the oper. GFS near historic 500 mb non-hydro heights over top.   We are past the solar max, so we need less clouds ...favorable wind directions and so on to not interfere. 

We need to dry out too. The waning insolation combined with the lush vegetation and evapotranspiration will probably limit the mixing potential. I think we would need one of those stronger downsloping west flow deals to pull off near record heat right now unless 850s are exotically through the roof. This past week verified as mostly 70s/80s with u60s/m70s dews as well. I’m in the primarily 85-92 over 70 camp which is still pretty miserable. I’m ready for the first across the bow shot.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We need to dry out too. The waning insolation combined with the lush vegetation and evapotranspiration will probably limit the mixing potential. I think we would need one of those stronger downsloping west flow deals to pull off near record heat right now unless 850s are exotically through the roof. This past week verified as mostly 70s/80s with u60s/m70s dews as well. I’m in the primarily 85-92 over 70 camp which is still pretty miserable. I’m ready for the first across the bow shot.

Yeah. Yup. I mean there’s a lot of different parameters to include and that is limiting more so now. -the basic scaffolding

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MEX for ASH on Wed has 95/69  ...

It's day 3.  Considering MOS damps daily anomalies with climate ...adding a tick or two onto the T side of that relationship implies a steamy sultry pairing ( heh ).    No but that would rival any of those mid 90s heat days we had back in June.   Thursday's not much relief 93/70 ..again, could be 95. 

Two big heat days back to back post Augie 20 isn't bad. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

When/if anyone re-engages with this thread.. .

That's an impressive non-hydrostatic heat signal in the operational GFS extending across some four or even five days ...from ~ Tue thru next Sun

The Euro has it too, but ...it also ripples a blocking/ridge node through the flow, over southern Canada .., with more amplitude and this feature piles up a surface high that interrupts it.  But the D8 to 10 looks hot afterward.

This has been really been in the guidance for some time but obviously ..Henri's held attention spans captive.  

We are late in the season for big heat. Obviously we've seen 90 to 100 in early September, so history demo's it is not impossible.  But it is getting notable to have +17 to +20 850 MB air over the southern Lakes, lower OV and M/A regions, should the oper. GFS near historic 500 mb non-hydro heights over top.   We are past the solar max, so we need less clouds ...favorable wind directions and so on to not interfere. 

It's way back (1895) but Maine sites hit low-mid (some upper) 90s on Sept 22-23 that year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You do realize that as Global Warming continues and human's at last succeed in this extinction event they appear to so eagerly want to see happen ... this kind of warm miasma becomes more and more the norm ...

One of the many gem suggestions that comes out of the CC modeling -

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You do realize that as Global Warming continues and human's at last succeed in this extinction event they appear to so eagerly want to see happen ... this kind of warm miasma becomes more and more the norm ...

One of the many gem suggestions that comes out of the CC modeling -

You think cc will be a human extinction event?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

MEX for ASH on Wed has 95/69  ...

It's day 3.  Considering MOS damps daily anomalies with climate ...adding a tick or two onto the T side of that relationship implies a steamy sultry pairing ( heh ).    No but that would rival any of those mid 90s heat days we had back in June.   Thursday's not much relief 93/70 ..again, could be 95. 

Two big heat days back to back post Augie 20 isn't bad. 

If it weren't for these interruptions from the tropical systems, this could have been an impressive stretch for duration. BTV and Montreal both hit 90s yesterday away from all the clouds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Saguaro said:

Don't forget the heat event in September 2002 which had some upper 90s days, at least in western ME.

LEW hit 96 in 9/02, Bridgton and Farmington 95, and IZG might've been hottest of all.  However that was on 9/9, nearly 2 weeks closer to met summer than the 1895 heat. 
(Farmington hasn't reached 95 since that 2002 day; best has been the 94 in June 2020.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...