uncle W Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 hour ago, doncat said: An isolated shower right over my station...gave a quick 0.50"...was surprised. I only saw a few drops...my side of the island missed a lot of storms this year compared to near by places... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Once we get rid of Henri and the cutoff / hung up front next week looks like a late season heatwave criteria Tue - Thu/Fri. Park not included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 81degs.(73/90), or +7. 75*(95%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue, some scattered clouds, P = 1014mb. 80*(82%RH) at Noon, P = 1015mb. EURO has 12× more rain than the GFS for TS Henri around here. NYC is in the 100% Prob. for TS winds on the EURO too........but at 9am.: Storm looks crummy as the 500mb. L is to the s.e. and the 850mb L is to the n. Not at all vertically stacked like a PB Bunny lol. OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 71 here, RH 98%, DP 70% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Very humid WAR pattern to continue into late August. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly cloudy. A few places could see a shower or thundershower especially late in the day. Temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 84° Newark: 87° Philadelphia: 86° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 82.7° Newark: 30-Year: 84.2°; 15-Year: 84.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.4°; 15-Year: 85.1° Henri will impact the region tomorrow. Landfall on Long Island remains the most likely outcome before it heads into southern New England. It should be tugged northwestward for a time by an upper low to the west and a formative Greenland block. How far west it comes remains uncertain. The uncertainty is reflected by the lack of run-to-run continuity between the overnight guidance and earlier runs. The 0z and 6z GFS are far apart. Parts of Long Island and New England could experience hurricane-force wind gusts. In addition, August 22 daily rainfall records are likely in numbers locations. For reference, daily rainfall records for select locations are below: Bridgeport: 1.42”, 1994 Farmingdale: 0.89”, 2019 Hartford: 1.95”, 1937 Islip: 2.21”, 1977 New Haven: 2.25”, 2010 New York City-JFK: 2.00”, 1994 New York City-LGA: 2.34”, 1994 New York City-NYC: 1.85”, 1994 Newark: 1.70”, 1994 Poughkeepsie: 3.70”, 2010 Westhampton: 1.41”, 1952 White Plains: 3.04”, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 77/69 here and cloudy again as storms on the ocean throw back clouds. Warm and Humid again today and with any pokes of sun for longer durations temps could spike from generally the low 80s to the upper 80s. Henri on Sunday before clearing out Monday (8/23). Ridge over the east and clearer skies allow temps to heat up and late season heatwave Tue (8/24) - Fri (8/27). 850 temps >18c by Wed and Thu (8/26). Next weekend should see a front come through and bring a short 2 days of cooler weather (but near normal) before more warmth returns by the 30th. Looks to continue warm to close the month with some models hinting that some of the stronger heat out west slides east in the 8/31 and onward timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 A steamy high dewpoint morning with a real "Florida" feel to it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Another Saturday at the New York Botanical Garden. Despite mostly cloudy skies and a sprinkle, the temperature climbed into the lower 80s. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, it felt quite uncomfortable. Nevertheless, much is still in bloom. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Another Saturday at the New York Botanical Garden. Despite mostly cloudy skies and a sprinkle, the temperature climbed into the lower 80s. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, it felt quite uncomfortable. Nevertheless, much is still in bloom. Before, during and after the storm, their beauty prevails. As always …. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Hurricane Henri will likely move across eastern Long Island or just pass offshore before making landfall along the southern New England coast. That will likely bring pounding surf and periods of heavy rain to the region. Parts of Long Island and southern New England could experience hurricane-force wind gusts. Already, feeder bands are bringing heavy downpours, thunder and lightning to parts of the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was +11.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.095 today. On August 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.638 (RMM). The August 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.938 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.1° (1.1° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 8/21 LGA: 84 EWR: 83 ISP: 83 PHL: 83 NYC: 82 TTN: 82 TEB: 82 JFK: 82 New Brnswck: 92 BLM: 80 ACY: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 83degs.(75/92), or +10. GFS says 2" more today, the EURO says 5". GFS had virtually none for yesterday. Rain ratios of 110:1 at nearby stations. NYC. 4.45" Bridgeport. 0.04"-----so I will not recommend extinction for the GFS. HW still its theme, however. 74*(99%RH) here at 6am, overcast, wet streets. P = 1011mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Morning thoughts… Last night was a historic night in Central Park. For the first time on record, 1.35” or more rain fell for two consecutive hours, including a new hourly record figure of 1.94”. 2021 also recorded its record 3rd day of the year with an hourly amount of 1.35” or more. Total rainfall came to 4.45”, which broke the daily record of 4.19” from 1888 and was the 5th highest daily figure on record for August. Henri will pass east of Long Island before making landfall in Rhode Island. It will be mostly cloudy, windy, with rain. Heavy downpours are likely. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 80° Philadelphia: 81° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.8°; 15-Year: 82.5° Newark: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 84.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 84.9° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy, breezy, and warmer. Showers and thundershowers are still possible. For reference, daily rainfall records for select locations are below: Bridgeport: 1.42”, 1994 Farmingdale: 0.89”, 2019 Hartford: 1.95”, 1937 Islip: 2.21”, 1977 New Haven: 2.25”, 2010 New York City-JFK: 2.00”, 1994 New York City-LGA: 2.34”, 1994 New York City-NYC: 1.85”, 1994 Newark: 1.70”, 1994 Poughkeepsie: 3.70”, 2010 Westhampton: 1.41”, 1952 White Plains: 3.04”, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 74/73 and 3.19 in the bucket. Henri to the east ULL to the south and humid and wet next 28 hours. Western Atlantic ridge build in cleanly by Tuesday (8/24) through Fri (8/27) 4 day heatwave more many (park a bit too wet so lots of 89s there). 850 temps >16c and peaking to near 18c by Wed / Thu (8/26). Somewhat of a cool down but still warm next weekend Sat (8/28) with ridge resurging by 8/29 - 8/31 and more heat (90s) possible. Minor / short lived day or two cooldowns but overwall warm into the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Some sun into the Jersey shore http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 As you know, NYC (Central Park) broke the daily rainfall record for Aug 21 with the heavy downpours late in the day (4.45"). The previous record of 4.19" from 1888 was also of tropical origins. H3 of 1888 made landfalls in south Florida and Louisiana, then tracked northeast with the center shown near NYC by 00z Aug 22nd, later near BOS. It may have retained TS intensity until about that time. The max and min listed for Aug 21 1888 were 72 and 63, suggesting perhaps east to northeast winds all day with those downpours probably lasting most of the day (a further 0.13" was recorded after midnight for the 22nd in 1888). The Aug 22 record for NYC is only 1.85" (1994), part of a total 3.02" rainfall on the 21st-22nd that year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 The last time Henri went over MTP, it was followed a few days later by Gloria: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 New City, Rockland County checking in and in the last hour or so we have picked up a little over an inch of rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 Folks: Here's some daily rainfall as of 515PM for today only.... nothing from yesterday. Many 3-4.5". I am thinking the 3-7" iso 10" nw NJ ne PA/se NYS may be too conservative. I think we have a dire situation for those with basement flood problems, & that there will be road and bridge washouts, somewhere between I-80 and I84. Doesn't mean it will happen but I do not like what is going on, to escape problems. Follow NWS warnings including river stage forecasts. The Ensembles were woefully underdone and that's why I think some of the large stream forecasts appear too me to be too conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 2 hours ago, Roger Smith said: As you know, NYC (Central Park) broke the daily rainfall record for Aug 21 with the heavy downpours late in the day (4.45"). The previous record of 4.19" from 1888 was also of tropical origins. H3 of 1888 made landfalls in south Florida and Louisiana, then tracked northeast with the center shown near NYC by 00z Aug 22nd, later near BOS. It may have retained TS intensity until about that time. The max and min listed for Aug 21 1888 were 72 and 63, suggesting perhaps east to northeast winds all day with those downpours probably lasting most of the day (a further 0.13" was recorded after midnight for the 22nd in 1888). The Aug 22 record for NYC is only 1.85" (1994), part of a total 3.02" rainfall on the 21st-22nd that year. I didn't have 1888 on my list of wettest tropical storms or remains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 NYC has had measurable rainfall nearly every weekend this summer since the Memorial Day weekend. But this was the wettest weekend by far. So it will be interesting to see if the Labor Day weekend continues this pattern. NYC weekends May 29-30….1.35 Jun 5-6……….dry Jun 12-13…….01 Jun 19-20……14 Jun 26-27……04 Jul 3-4………..34 Jul 10-11..……28 Jul 17-18…….65 Jul 24-25……49 Jul 31-Aug 1…04 Aug 7-8………21 Aug 14-15….dry Aug 21-22….6.35…so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 22 minutes ago, uncle W said: I didn't have 1888 on my list of wettest tropical storms or remains... I hadn't looked at it until this happened, it now becomes one of the heaviest 24h rainfalls not to be a daily record (there are a few higher examples). This may not be complete (top five that I found in the data base) but the following daily rainfalls are not daily records (the actual ones are also shown): LIST OF DAILY RAINFALLS >3.90" NOT DAILY RECORDS Rank __ Amt __ Date _______________ Record for date 01 ____ 5.60" __ Nov 8 1972 ________ 7.40" Nov 8 1977 02 ____ 4.26" __ Oct 8 2005 ________ 4.30" Oct 8 1903 03 ____ 4.19" __ Aug 21 1888 _______ 4.45" Aug 21 2021 04 ____ 4.05" _ Sep 21 1938 _______ 5.54" Sep 21 1966 05 ____ 3.90" _ Aug 9 1976 ________ 4.10" Aug 9 1942 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Roger Smith said: I hadn't looked at it until this happened, it now becomes one of the heaviest 24h rainfalls not to be a daily record (there are a few higher examples). This may not be complete (top five that I found in the data base) but the following daily rainfalls are not daily records (the actual ones are also shown): LIST OF DAILY RAINFALLS >3.90" NOT DAILY RECORDS Rank __ Amt __ Date _______________ Record for date 01 ____ 5.60" __ Nov 8 1972 ________ 7.40" Nov 8 1977 02 ____ 4.26" __ Oct 8 2005 ________ 4.30" Oct 8 1903 03 ____ 4.19" __ Aug 21 1888 _______ 4.45" Aug 21 2021 04 ____ 4.05" _ Sep 21 1938 _______ 5.54" Sep 21 1966 05 ____ 3.90" _ Aug 9 1976 ________ 4.10" Aug 9 1942 rainfall in NYC from a tropical storm/hurricane...date.................amount........Sept 1882.......10.63"Sept 1944.........7.76" great Atlantic hurricaneAug 2011..........6.87" Irene Aug 2021..........6.66+ HenriAug 1955..........6.32" ConnieAug 1971..........5.96" DoriaSept 1938.........5.74"Sept 1934.........5.48"Sept 1999.........5.44" FloydAug 1879..........4.59"Aug 1976..........4.28" BelleOct 1877...........4.07"Aug 1893..........3.94"Sept 1904.........3.85"Aug 1991..........3.72" BobSept 1985.........3.58" GloriaJuly 1960...........3.56"Sept 1954.........3.30" CarolSept 1960.........2.42" Donna 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Well over 3.5”; heavy rain continues. Just lost power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 I might have to add 1888 to the list... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/60729590 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1888-08-22/ed-1/seq-1/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 New York City's Central Park received its largest 2-day August rainfall on record. Through 8 pm, 7.04" had fallen. That broke the previous 2-day August record of 6.87", which was set on August 27-28, 2011. In addition, Central Park set a new hourly mark of 1.94" rain yesterday. Daily rainfall records included: Hartford: 3.15" (old record: 1.95", 1937) New York City-JFK: 2.26" (old record: 2.00", 1994) New York City-NYC: 2.59" (old record: 1.85", 1994) Newark: 2.39" (old record: 1.70", 1994) Tomorrow will see clouds break for sunshine. It will turn noticeably warmer. There could still be a shower or thunderstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was +3.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.833 today. On August 20 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.447 (RMM). The August 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.637 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.3° (1.3° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 this was one of the biggest rain storms in NYC record weather history... Wettest storms 11.83" 09/21-23/1882 11.80" 10/08-10/1903 ..9.19" 11/07-08/1977 ..8.45" 04/15-16/2007 ..7.76" 09/13-14/1944 ..7.04" 08/21-22/2021 ..7.01" 10/12-13/2005 ..6.87" 08/27-28/2011 ..6.32" 08/12-13/1955 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 This is the 4th wettest summer on record in NYC through yesterday. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jun through AugClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2011 25.23 0 2 1975 22.40 0 3 1989 22.36 0 4 2021 22.29 9 5 2009 21.38 0 6 2006 20.79 0 7 2007 20.62 0 8 1928 20.50 0 9 1903 20.43 0 10 1927 20.01 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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