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Winter 2021-22


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2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You have to understand that we have a tendency to get the rug pulled out from underneath us at the last minute, sometimes as late as 12 to 24 hours prior to the event. It gets worse when folks from other forums come down to rub salt in the wounds and spike the ball in our face just to get a rise out of us. 

Snow is sacred here, you wait months for a 15 days window that produces maybe 8 to 12 hours of snow and then it's gone by sunset the next day. 

Yeah I was here last February, that one stupid storm got pulled out from us within 8 hours (yay sleetfest). I am guilty of whining about snow when we get screwed over, and it only irritates me when when people are saying a winter is over before it starts. I guess it also irritates me because I know that it might be and don’t really want to admit that we might have a 2019-2020 redux. It also makes me upset because it comes down to such small things when there is a storm that makes it impossible to predict 3 day out let alone 3 months.

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

we good for early winter. B)

 

The most recent Euro weeklies backed off a bit on the west coast ridging, but no clear signal for a trough or Alaskan blue ball, so it's pretty ambiguous. Still interesting to see this far out, so far it does seem like we're emulating a bit of Oct/Nov 2017. 

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40 minutes ago, gopper said:

IF there is any validity to this, wouldn't the pattern actually be a couple/few weeks later as models tend to change patterns too soon?  That would bode well for December, IMO.

I'm not overly enthused about some anomalously 'favorable' pattern setting up over the next month. Guidance has been persistent in suggesting some seasonable weather and even a period of slightly below normal temps, mostly courtesy of a +PNA, so I will gladly take that if it is also mostly dry. We'll see how things look on guidance in a few weeks as we head into December. For many of us, getting a winter storm in November or even early December is pretty rare.

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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I'm not overly enthused about some anomalously 'favorable' pattern setting up over the next month. Guidance has been persistent in suggesting some seasonable weather and even a period of slightly below normal temps, mostly courtesy of a +PNA, so I will gladly take that if it is also mostly dry. We'll see how things look on guidance in a few weeks as we head into December. For many of us, getting a winter storm in November or even early December is pretty rare.

PV strengthens back after this initial weakening. Moderation in temps during mid November is possible. Later in the month more significant pattern change may develop. I think the odds of a colder December versus November may be more likely given the data currently. 

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48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A great winter-type pattern in November is wasted 99% of the time.  I'd rather the pattern evolves so by ~10-15 December we have something functional.  

I've only been here 5 years (and have yet to experience a significant above 1' snowfall. I think I might have hit 1' once in those 5 years), but I have definitely noticed this since moving - Nov/Dec snows almost seem detrimental lol.

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4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

A great winter-type pattern in November is wasted 99% of the time.  I'd rather the pattern evolves so by ~10-15 December we have something functional.  

Latest from the CFS for week 6 fwiw. Not a terrible look up top and in the EPAC at h5. Suggestive of -EPO/AO and at least a neutral NAO. Verbatim no cold air anywhere close by though lol.

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_6.png

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Latest from the CFS for week 6 fwiw. Not a terrible look up top and in the EPAC at h5. Suggestive of -EPO/AO and at least a neutral NAO. Verbatim no cold air anywhere close by though lol.

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_6.png

 

Here is the entire month of December based off the early morning run today.   Front loaded winter?   Seems to be two camps on that notion. 

FB_IMG_1635533738621.jpg.237ad51968b873eadd3bbeb74b28baf1.jpg.3b30ac8f8d1d202a9bf9f282066d3938.jpg

 

 

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Latest from the CFS for week 6 fwiw. Not a terrible look up top and in the EPAC at h5. Suggestive of -EPO/AO and at least a neutral NAO. Verbatim no cold air anywhere close by though lol.

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_6.png

There is really only two pockets of cold anywhere in the NH!  That’s becoming a common thing. When the red is 70% of the map and the blue is 10%…well I won’t finish so as not to ruin anyone’s Friday. 

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There is really only two pockets of cold anywhere in the NH!  That’s becoming a common thing. When the red is 70% of the map and the blue is 10%…well I won’t finish so as not to ruin anyone’s Friday. 

You're saying cold air is becoming a problem that might be more long-term. I mean ya don't have to hold back, lol (watch out when PSU starts using exclamation points, folks) Your warnings last year are part of the reason why I've gone more doom and gloom for future snow. Yet somehow...that's not a logical reaction? :rolleyes:

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Where did I say you should be optimistic about the chances of seeing even mean snowfall? I have told you several times that 'expecting' median is more realistic.

Maybe not so much you...but the rest if the board trolling me for being pessimistic about future snow prospects as if it's not logical. I don't get that...My opinions are largely goin' off of what I hear from y'all!! (particularly the more knowledgeable posters). That and my own eyes from what's happened post 2016.

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