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Late June Heavy Rain/Severe Threats


Hoosier
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I picked up a bit of rain as the light rain shield expanded north.  The warm advection wing of the MCS parked for a while down by Ottumwa.  Radar suggests several inches fell to the southeast of town.  They are really getting clobbered in the St. Joseph, MO area.  Radar shows a band of near a foot of rain has fallen to the nw of town and storms are still training.  Nobody wants that sh*t.

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Interesting tidbit from SPC at the bottom of today's 13Z outlook:

Quote
   Though the "slight"/15% wind/hail and marginal tornado probabilities
   extend over a large area, actual severe threat will be far from
   uniform within it, as mesobeta- and smaller-scale features will tend
   to regulate upscale-growth/ clustering potential and concentrate
   severe threat accordingly.

I'm glad they started putting this type of thing in there. A common mistake people make (and I used to make) when looking at those probability maps is to take them to mean that everywhere within that percentage zone has equal chances of seeing that type of severe weather threat, therefore in terms of chase targeting "one spot is as good as another."

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The patchwork nature of the bigger totals over Iowa/northern Illinois and Wisconsin from this sequence will make for some stark divides between green/brown grass and winners/losers among farmers. Certainly not what we were expecting/hoping for just a few days ago for areas north/west of the gravy train which now looks to be from eastern Kansas through central MO/IL/IN and then northeast across NW OH/SE lower MI and into Ontario.

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9 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

The patchwork nature of the bigger totals over Iowa/northern Illinois and Wisconsin from this sequence will make for some stark divides between green/brown grass and winners/losers among farmers. Certainly not what we were expecting/hoping for just a few days ago for areas north/west of the gravy train which now looks to be from eastern Kansas through central MO/IL/IN and then northeast across NW OH/SE lower MI and into Ontario.

Should add a few more patches today to the areas that have seen less (but not around Madison until tomorrow probably).  HRRR is picking up on that area of clearing across N IL back into IA where a surface trough is also co-located. Storm motions will be 5-10KT so any spotty storms that form could dump some local 2-3” amounts. 
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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1147 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

   Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon into
   tonight from portions of the southern/central High Plains to the
   Midwest. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and a couple of tornadoes
   are possible.

   ...Eastern Kansas to Midwest including IL/IN/OH/Lower MI...
   Multiple corridors of storm development and intensification are
   expected across the region by mid/late afternoon, influenced by
   multiple MCVs as well as an outflow-reinforced effective front.
   Damaging thunderstorm winds and a couple of tornadoes should the
   primary risks, with severe hail also a possibility particularly
   across the Kansas/Missouri portion of the Slight Risk. This is where
   buoyancy will be more robust with deep-layer/low-level shear are
   expected to be maximized along the modifying boundary across eastern
   Kansas into western Missouri. Some initial supercells capable of all
   hazards, including a tornado risk, will be possible prior to storm
   mergers occurring with gradual upscale growth during the evening
   with an increasing damaging wind potential.

   Other severe storms may develop by mid/late afternoon along the
   residual boundary across south-central Illinois into Indiana.
   Although instability is a bit uncertain given persistent
   convection/cloud cover at midday, a late-afternoon clearing trend in
   conjunction with MCV-related enhanced wind profiles could support
   some supercells/sustained multicells within a corridor across
   northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio into Lower Michigan. Presuming
   sufficient destabilization, a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds
   could occur.
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