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Central PA - Summer 2021


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51 minutes ago, paweather said:

This is a huge event.

I’m going on a limb and disagreeing.  It’ll be nasty and some creeks and roads will flood but I don’t think it‘ll be much worse than a severe 1 hour long storm that drops 2.5” rain. 

A lot of rain will fall. But 6” isn’t devastating. 

Edit: I don’t mean to downplay this event. I just don’t think it’ll be catastrophic-places will definitely flood.  

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Strong wording for CTP

e post-tropical transition of Ida (interaction with the mid- latitude westerlies and quasi-stationary front draped near the MD/PA line) will bring extreme rainfall and considerable flooding impacts to south central PA today into early Thursday. Strong signals in the latest hires ensemble guidance leads to high confidence extreme 24-hr rainfall totals of 4 to 6+ inches with local amounts up to 8 inches possible. The 01/00Z HREF probability of 24hr QPF to exceed 100yr ARI is 70-100% which increases confidence in extreme rainfall even more. To put this into a more localized climatological perspective, we are forecasting a top-5 maximum daily rainfall total at Harrisburg. 
 

 

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8 hours ago, canderson said:

I’m going on a limb and disagreeing.  It’ll be nasty and some creeks and roads will flood but I don’t think it‘ll be much worse than a severe 1 hour long storm that drops 2.5” rain. 

A lot of rain will fall. But 6” isn’t devastating. 

Edit: I don’t mean to downplay this event. I just don’t think it’ll be catastrophic-places will definitely flood.  

Completely agree.  I think this thing is moving along quickly enough and will be just spread out enough to avoid major issues for most.  Now, there will certainly be some localized spots that are hit hard and some moderate flooding at-large, but I don't see this as a Lee or Agnes situation, too progressive.  Also, I expect a relative lull through much of the morning and early afternoon out this way, with the real goods coming this evening.  Still optimistic that the highest totals remain just to my north.  My 7:30am tally was just under an inch.  An exciting day on tap one way or the other.  Good luck to all for whatever your desired outcome is!

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24 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Completely agree.  I think this thing is moving along quickly enough and will be just spread out enough to avoid major issues for most.  Now, there will certainly be some localized spots that are hit hard and some moderate flooding at-large, but I don't see this as a Lee or Agnes situation, too progressive.  Also, I expect a relative lull through much of the morning and early afternoon out this way, with the real goods coming this evening.  Still optimistic that the highest totals remain just to my north.  My 7:30am tally was just under an inch.  An exciting day on tap one way or the other.  Good luck to all for whatever your desired outcome is!

This is what I was trying to say yesterday.

Currently, up to .94" but no rain is falling currently. 

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Just now, TheDreamTraveler said:

The heaviest rain isn't forecast to fall until later this evening after 4 pm or so I believe. Though the cutoff might be more extreme down where you are I think

Cutoff has been brutal across SE parts of Lanco - some areas south and east of the city have yet to see a drop. 

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1.10" in the gauge so far.  Incredible torrent back around 7:30 which delivered around 0.75" in about 20 minutes.  Interestingly, right now the radar is lit up with orange and yellow north of here up in true central areas.  Will that shift south during the day?  We'll see.  Oh, btw, so far there have been zero recorded lightning strikes for the entire event.

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