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Central PA - Summer 2021


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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

As others have mentioned, cloud cover only seems to be thickening, hmmmmmmm, we shall see but the visible satellite in motion is not overly promising......

IMGv_0.thumb.jpg.7ed485b87a7fe4cd9a5bad142cdf6ad7.jpg

Yep unless the clouds break it could be tough for development of Cells. I am looking forward to some fall temps though!

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7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

As others have mentioned, cloud cover only seems to be thickening, hmmmmmmm, we shall see but the visible satellite in motion is not overly promising......

IMGv_0.thumb.jpg.7ed485b87a7fe4cd9a5bad142cdf6ad7.jpg

Interesting snapshot - there is a "weakness" in the deck over Lanco - you can see it over the central part of the county. Sun has actually been peaking out here at work for the past 45 minutes already. 

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Interesting snapshot - there is a "weakness" in the deck over Lanco - you can see it over the central part of the county. Sun has actually been peaking out here at work for the past 45 minutes already. 

Sure is but if you put it in motion it's actually thickening not thinning.  Tough to say how we'll look in a few hours.

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8 minutes ago, canderson said:

Don't need much sun today to pop supercells. Ingredients (and latent heat) are there. Even an hour would greatly aid in development. 

Agreed, many of the metrics are in place, and solidly so.  This has almost all the ingredients you look for.  With that said, you'd still like to see a little sun at some point to ripen things up.

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38 minutes ago, canderson said:

Don't need much sun today to pop supercells. Ingredients (and latent heat) are there. Even an hour would greatly aid in development. 

 

27 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Agreed, many of the metrics are in place, and solidly so.  This has almost all the ingredients you look for.  With that said, you'd still like to see a little sun at some point to ripen things up.

I would tend to agree. It’s way too early to declare the severe threat DOA. But living up to the hype? That remains to be seen.

That said, PBZ discussion says the MCS coming out of the Midwest has been modeled poorly thus far, and if the models don’t have that right, what else do they not have right?

My point & click is down to a 20% chance of rain today and a 40% chance tonight, but of course I’m not in the prime area for this round like you guys are.

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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Take a look at satellite and you can see it starting to thin out. 

Yes you really can, it's subtle but it's there.  Also a thicker band moving in from the west though.  You can also clearly see the multiple layers of clouds moving in all directions, evidence of the directional shear that's in place.

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15 minutes ago, canderson said:

You able to pull skew data (and translate to layman terms ha) for MDT? 

I can't pull up any current skew-t data (which sucks, MDT should send up a weather balloon lol). But the latest 12z 3k NAM has plenty of deep layer shear and a TOR sounding for the MDT region. In layman's terms... atmosphere go spinny, just need some sun...mdt.thumb.png.cbe205923444b3ab0abe7deed3f002f7.png

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