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Central PA - Summer 2021


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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My temp has been fluctuating between 80 and 82 for hours. 82 when it's bright, near 80 when the cloud cover thickens. Dewpoint is holding steady at 71.

And the A/C comment did not apply to you.  I am sure yours is full sail ahead regardless!  LOL.  Mine is set on 75 right now.   Outside temp 78 now. 

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The latest 1800z Mesoanalysis basically shows almost any CIN eroded. SBCAPE up to 2000 J/kg for much of Lancaster/York/Adams and MLCAPE up to 1000 approaching ~1500 J/kg. Bulk shear has very nicely increased as expected. Low level lapse rates have been increasing as well, LCLs are low (support tornadoes). So while CAPE is certainly not incredible by any means, it should get the job down with the ample shear. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, maybe an iso tornado later

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

See my previous note for S/W PA. 

Ah yes, the only place it’s sunny right now. We don’t have the other parameters lined up though. Further upstream over Ohio it looks like some isolated storms have fired.

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5 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Ah yes, the only place it’s sunny right now. We don’t have the other parameters lined up though. Further upstream over Ohio it looks like some isolated storms have fired.

Every piece of short term guidance gets S/W (really West Central as well) PA into the game 4-8PM.  Something to watch.   Even the Rap is game.  Rap gives LSV some love as well in that evening time frame. 

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Certainly NOT saying this will happen, just a thought that occurred to me...how many times has an area been under an enhanced risk with any sort of watch never issued? 

At this point I think local warnings are more likely than an areal watch. 

More than a few, if I had to guess. I’d check SPC archives if I had any idea of the date, but I think it happened in W PA once maybe last year or the year before.

Edit: I forgot, ENH risk has only existed for a handful of years. So it probably hasn’t occurred many times.

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Every piece of short term guidance gets S/W (really West Central as well) PA into the game 4-8PM.  Something to watch.   Even the Rap is game.  Rap gives LSV some love as well in that evening time frame. 

This game isn’t over, it’s only 2pm and we’re still hours from the best climo for severe storms in PA.

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1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Funnel cloud spotted in storm entering somerset county 

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Somerset County in south central Pennsylvania...

* Until 245 PM EDT.

* At 212 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Seven Springs, moving southeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters reported funnel cloud.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.
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29 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Sun has come out upstream, if that changes the game any for instability.

If by upstream you mean post frontal...then no...it isnt going to do anything.  Sun needs to be out NOW for the LSV to get T boomers crankin.  Its currently light rain in Etown.  Squashes the instability.  Yes we can still get good rains though. 

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8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

If by upstream you mean post frontal...then no...it isnt going to do anything.  Sun needs to be out NOW for the LSV to get T boomers crankin.  Its currently light rain in Etown.  Squashes the instability.  Yes we can still get good rains though. 

I disagree actually today - parameter are there regardless of sun. 

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1 minute ago, canderson said:

I disagree actually today - parameter are there regardless of sun. 

Mt Holly mentioned this in their disco this morning - they said that clearing today had little to no bearing on severe potential. (I'm sure that sun wouldn't have hurt) They said that pretty much every box was checked for a severe event today. 

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Mt Holly mentioned this in their disco this morning - they said that clearing today had little to no bearing on severe potential. (I'm sure that sun wouldn't have hurt) They said that pretty much every box was checked for a severe event today. 

then I guess time will tell.  Sun is and always has been the biggest spark for creating instability and causing needed lift.  Yes, there is more to it than that, but they are not as big of sparks IMO.  Lower max temps, and no sun are 2 big empty boxes unchecked IMO.  

I'll stick w/ my call.....all good. If I'm wrong, I'm happy for you storm chasers.  Enjoy.

I want the rain (and we are getting it as I type), so its a win for me anyway.  

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

then I guess time will tell.  Sun is and always has been the biggest spark for creating instability and causing needed lift.  Yes, there is more to it than that, but they are not as big of sparks IMO.  Lower max temps, and no sun are 2 big empty boxes unchecked IMO.  

I'll stick w/ my call.....all good. If I'm wrong, I'm happy for you storm chasers.  Enjoy.

I want the rain (and we are getting it as I type), so its a win for me anyway.  

For the record, I would have agreed 100% with you had I not read that. (and the thoughts of others) I don't recall a significant severe day without ample sun.

Like you said...we'll find out soon enough. Hoping like heck you're right. 

And I am NOT a storm chaser. I am a bonafide storm hater. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

For the record, I would have agreed 100% with you had I not read that. (and the thoughts of others) I don't recall a significant severe day without ample sun.

Like you said...we'll find out soon enough. Hoping like heck you're right. 

And I am NOT a storm chaser. I am a bonafide winter storm hater?

 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

For the record, I would have agreed 100% with you had I not read that. (and the thoughts of others) I don't recall a significant severe day without ample sun.

Like you said...we'll find out soon enough. Hoping like heck you're right. 

And I am NOT a storm chaser. I am a bonafide storm hater. 

dp up to 79 here.  Bit thick for sure.  Id be more worried about flash flooding then bow echos.

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