June 2021

[the_other_guy]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The most extreme June heat is going west of us this month. Just like the record cold missed us back in February. Very unusual for no 100° heat to make it to our area with the all-time record warmth to our west. While it looks like we will warm back to the low 90s this coming weekend, it’s a toned down version of what has been happening out West. So no temperatures in the forecast to challenge the 97° at Newark during the first week of June. It’s pretty unusual for the June monthly high to happen during the first week.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&csector=conus&var=avgt&p=month&year=2021&month=6&sdate=2021%2F05%2F20&edate=2021%2F06%2F17&cmap=BrBG&cmap_r=on&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

Also, the extreme drought rockies-westward that we didnt experience this winter.

Snowfall was way off, where our snowfall and rainfall hasnt been. Sets up a crisis situation out west

 

 

 

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The most extreme June heat is going west of us this month. Just like the record cold missed us back in February. Very unusual for no 100° heat to make it to our area with the all-time record warmth to our west. While it looks like we will warm back to the low 90s this coming weekend, it’s a toned down version of what has been happening out West. So no temperatures in the forecast to challenge the 97° at Newark during the first week of June. It’s pretty unusual for the June monthly high to happen during the first week.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&csector=conus&var=avgt&p=month&year=2021&month=6&sdate=2021%2F05%2F20&edate=2021%2F06%2F17&cmap=BrBG&cmap_r=on&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

to bad records don't go back to 1936 in dallas...it probably was just as extreme...

[Brian5671]

Euro bone dry through the next 7-10 days (except well N and W)

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Also, the extreme drought rockies-westward that we didnt experience this winter.

Snowfall was way off, where our snowfall and rainfall hasnt been. Sets up a crisis situation out west

 

 

 

Yeah, the warming and drying trend out West is pretty extreme. 

 

[lee59]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the warming and drying trend out West is pretty extreme. 

 

That drier and hotter conditions will make any fires burn worse. What has to happen is people stop setting them. In the past it was thunderstorms now with so many people out there the fires are just rampant with the added fuel of people.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, lee59 said:

That drier and hotter conditions will make any fires burn worse. What has to happen is people stop setting them. In the past it was thunderstorms now with so many people out there the fires are just rampant with the added fuel of people.

There are always going to be sparks that can start wildfires. But with the historic dry conditions, they are growing to record proportions. That’s really the main problem. 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

There are always going to be sparks that can start wildfires. But with the historic dry conditions, they are growing to record proportions. That’s really the main problem. 

I agree with you that climate change of drier and hotter in that region is making those fires bigger and worse. However, I believe, the bigger problem is the people setting them. Sparks don't just happen, I would say most sparks are from people. Campfires, cigarette butts, electric pole wires, etc. I'm with you bluewave on the fires worse because of climate change but I still believe most of those fires would never exist if it wasn't for people.

[uncle W]

lets not forget the dust bowl in the 1930's...that was a drought...many wild fires went un noticed because no one lived there...

[donsutherland1]

A warming trend will develop starting tomorrow as some of the heat baking the Southwest begins to move into the region. The temperature could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region during the weekend.

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

Blythe, CA: 119° (old record: 116°, 2015)
Bullhead City, AZ: 120° (old record: 117°, 2008)
Casper: 94°
Death Valley, CA: 128° (old record: 122°, 1917) ***tied June record***
Denver: 100° (old record: 98°, 2012) ***3rd consecutive 100° day***
Flagstaff: 92° (tied record set in 1940)
Las Vegas: 114° (old record: 113°, 1940)
Needles: 120° (tied record set in 1917)
Palm Springs: 123° (old record: 116°, 1961) ***new June record; tied all-time record***
Phoenix: 118° (old record: 114°, 1896 and 2015)
Sacramento: 107° (old record: 103°, 1963)
Tucson: 112° (old record: 109°, 1917, 1985, 1989, 2008, and 2015)

At Phoenix, the temperature hit 118°. That is the earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The previous record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature also reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

At Tucson, the temperature reached 110° or above for the sixth consecutive day. That tied June 24-29, 1994 for the longest streak on record. Records go back to September 1894. Today was also the sixth consecutive record high temperature at Tucson.

The Tucson NWS office reported that the temperature reached 100° at Tucson at 8:14 am MST. That is the second earliest such reading, behind June 20, 2017 when the temperature reached 100° at 8:02 am.  

The extreme heat will continue into the weekend. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix during this time. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 18-19 period are posted below.

Record high maximum temperatures:

June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015
June 19: 118°, 2016 and 2017

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 18: 88°, 2008
June 19: 86°, 1958 and 1959

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +9.28 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.921 today.

On June 15 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.344 (RMM). The June 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.286 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal).

 

[Stormlover74]

Down to 66 already. Last cool comfortable night until September?

[uncle W]

33 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Down to 66 already. Last cool comfortable night until September?

NYC hardly ever gets below 60 in July and August...growing up in the 1960's the city routinely saw temps in the 50's in July and August...there were some exceptions...in todays world NYC rarely gets below the low 60's in July and August but there are exceptions...

[doncat]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Down to 66 already. Last cool comfortable night until September?

Mid next week looks nice.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, uncle W said:

NYC hardly ever gets below 60 in July and August...growing up in the 1960's the city routinely saw temps in the 50's in July and August...there were some exceptions...in todays world NYC rarely gets below the low 60's in July and August but there are exceptions...

the first year I ever saw the Perseids was the best year ever for them.....August 1986, weren't we down in the lower 50s with crystal clear skies?

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A warming trend will develop starting tomorrow as some of the heat baking the Southwest begins to move into the region. The temperature could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region during the weekend.

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

Blythe, CA: 119° (old record: 116°, 2015)
Bullhead City, AZ: 120° (old record: 117°, 2008)
Casper: 94°
Death Valley, CA: 128° (old record: 122°, 1917) ***tied June record***
Denver: 100° (old record: 98°, 2012) ***3rd consecutive 100° day***
Flagstaff: 92° (tied record set in 1940)
Las Vegas: 114° (old record: 113°, 1940)
Needles: 120° (tied record set in 1917)
Palm Springs: 123° (old record: 116°, 1961) ***new June record; tied all-time record***
Phoenix: 118° (old record: 114°, 1896 and 2015)
Sacramento: 107° (old record: 103°, 1963)
Tucson: 112° (old record: 109°, 1917, 1985, 1989, 2008, and 2015)

At Phoenix, the temperature hit 118°. That is the earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The previous record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature also reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

At Tucson, the temperature reached 110° or above for the sixth consecutive day. That tied June 24-29, 1994 for the longest streak on record. Records go back to September 1894. Today was also the sixth consecutive record high temperature at Tucson.

The Tucson NWS office reported that the temperature reached 100° at Tucson at 8:14 am MST. That is the second earliest such reading, behind June 20, 2017 when the temperature reached 100° at 8:02 am.  

The extreme heat will continue into the weekend. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix during this time. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 18-19 period are posted below.

Record high maximum temperatures:

June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015
June 19: 118°, 2016 and 2017

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 18: 88°, 2008
June 19: 86°, 1958 and 1959

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +9.28 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.921 today.

On June 15 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.344 (RMM). The June 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.286 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal).

 

wow 128 and 123 for Death Valley and Palm Springs?!  Do you think this is the peak of the heat or could it possibly get even hotter in those places?

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, uncle W said:

lets not forget the dust bowl in the 1930's...that was a drought...many wild fires went un noticed because no one lived there...

and bad farming practices, and we also have some really bad farming practices going on right now.

Regenerative farming needs to be adopted everywhere

 

 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

The most extreme June heat is going west of us this month. Just like the record cold missed us back in February. Very unusual for no 100° heat to make it to our area with the all-time record warmth to our west. While it looks like we will warm back to the low 90s this coming weekend, it’s a toned down version of what has been happening out West. So no temperatures in the forecast to challenge the 97° at Newark during the first week of June. It’s pretty unusual for the June monthly high to happen during the first week.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&csector=conus&var=avgt&p=month&year=2021&month=6&sdate=2021%2F05%2F20&edate=2021%2F06%2F17&cmap=BrBG&cmap_r=on&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

I'm starting to think we wont see 100 in our area this summer.

Maybe upper 90s like the last few years.

Do you have any early forecasts for the first half of July?

 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(65/85), or about +1.0.

Month to date is  72.5[+2.4].          Should be about  73.3[+2.3] by the 26th.

64*(60%RH) here at  6am., m. clear.           73* by Noon.

[uncle W]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

the first year I ever saw the Perseids was the best year ever for them.....August 1986, weren't we down in the lower 50s with crystal clear skies?

 

the end of August 1986 had a cool down that saw temps drop to 50 in NYC (tied for the coolest Aug Temp) and 40's elsewhere...1965, 1976 and 1982 also had temps drop to 50 in the city...all developing el nino years...

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and bad farming practices, and we also have some really bad farming practices going on right now.

Regenerative farming needs to be adopted everywhere

 

 

Yeah, the Dust Bowl was an early example of humans altering the Great Plains climate through land degradation. We had a big hand in the magnitude of the record heat. Now we are cooling the region through our farming practices.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w

Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world.

 

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather

The Great Plains of the central United States—the Corn Belt—is one of the most fertile regions on Earth, producing more than 10 billion bushels of corn each year. It’s also home to some mysterious weather: Whereas the rest of the world has warmed, the region’s summer temperatures have dropped as much as a full degree Celsius, and rainfall has increased up to 35%, the largest spike anywhere in the world. The culprit, according to a new study, isn’t greenhouse gas emissions or sea surface temperature—it’s the corn itself.

This is the first time anyone has examined regional climate change in the central United States by directly comparing the influence of greenhouse gas emissions to agriculture, says Nathan Mueller, an earth systems scientist at the University of California (UC), Irvine, who was not involved with this study. It’s important to understand how agricultural activity can have “surprisingly strong” impacts on climate change, he says.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly cloudy and noticeably warmer. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 88°

Philadelphia: 84°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 80.6°; 15-Year: 80.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 82.8°; 15-Year: 82.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 84.3°

A very warm weekend lies ahead.

Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. Tucson will likely record its record-breaking 7th consecutive day with temperatures reaching 110° or above.

Daily Records for June 18:

Phoenix: 115°, 1989 and 2015 (Forecast: 115° to 119°) 

Tucson: 113°, 1989 (Forecast: 110° to 114°)

*-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

[lee59]

Another nice morning, low temperature here 55.

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow 128 and 123 for Death Valley and Palm Springs?!  Do you think this is the peak of the heat or could it possibly get even hotter in those places?

 

It could be the peak, though Death Valley might be exceptionally hot today and again tomorrow.

[SACRUS]

Great stretch of weather will turn warmer today.  Sat - Tue warm to hot with potential 90s, especially Sat (6/19) - Mon (6/21).  Clouds and some storms may get in the way of 90s on Saturday but Sun and Mon look to get there in a widespread fashion. 

Tropical remnants looks to be near the area by Tuesday (6/22)  ahead of a cold front.  Wed (6/23) - Fri (6/25) next week look similar to Thu, cooler and dry and very nice before the humid/ southerly flow backs in as the Western Atlantic ridge pushes west. 

 

6/25 - the end of June warm/humid with front near stationary west of the area.  Need to watch this feature as should the ridge not build far enough west, that front could get hung up along the coast otherwise a bit of Miami into the area to end June

 

Way beyond there as we head towards July, guidance shows more higher heights into the east, kind of an overall warm pattern.

[rclab]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the Dust Bowl was an early example of humans altering the Great Plains climate through land degradation. We had a big hand in the magnitude of the record heat. Now we are cooling the region through our farming practices.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w

Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world.

 

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather

The Great Plains of the central United States—the Corn Belt—is one of the most fertile regions on Earth, producing more than 10 billion bushels of corn each year. It’s also home to some mysterious weather: Whereas the rest of the world has warmed, the region’s summer temperatures have dropped as much as a full degree Celsius, and rainfall has increased up to 35%, the largest spike anywhere in the world. The culprit, according to a new study, isn’t greenhouse gas emissions or sea surface temperature—it’s the corn itself.

This is the first time anyone has examined regional climate change in the central United States by directly comparing the influence of greenhouse gas emissions to agriculture, says Nathan Mueller, an earth systems scientist at the University of California (UC), Irvine, who was not involved with this study. It’s important to understand how agricultural activity can have “surprisingly strong” impacts on climate change, he says.

 

Good morning B W. Thank you for the corn belt article. I remember reading years ago how the corn belt might possibly move/expand into Canada. A realignment of the breadbasket. Will we see a rise, as Tip mentioned, in the improvement of desalinization technology/techniques? Could such efforts lead to the greening of present large desert zones, such as the Sahara. If an undertaking like this is even possible would it hurt more than help? Questions for the long term, answered results I’ll never see. At least thinking about it is an exercise. As always ….

[bluewave]

43 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning B W. Thank you for the corn belt article. I remember reading years ago how the corn belt might possibly move/expand into Canada. A realignment of the breadbasket. Will we see a rise, as Tip mentioned, in the improvement of desalinization technology/techniques? Could such efforts lead to the greening of present large desert zones, such as the Sahara. If an undertaking like this is even possible would it hurt more than help? Questions for the long term, answered results I’ll never see. At least thinking about it is an exercise. As always ….

Some of the long range climate models have the current megadrought out West expanding eastward to the Plains over this century. So if that  projection is correct, then it would put quite a stress on US agriculture. A gradual desertification of the Plains would probably mean more frequent 100° days for our area in the summer. 

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/1/e1400082

 

 

[SnoSki14]

It blows me away how already hot areas out west are only getting hotter and crushing previous records.

Our summers have been very warm and muggy but I don't feel we've had the same levels of max heat since 2010-11. 

However us being consistently warm still gave us top 10 summers. I guess we'll see what July/August bring. 

[donsutherland1]

A useful paper that helps explain persistent sometimes extreme patterns:

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep45242

[lee59]

Overcast and very breezy here, looks like rain but nothing near.

[donsutherland1]

This weekend will be variably cloudy and very warm. The temperature could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region. Some areas could see a shower or thunderstorm.

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

Blythe, CA: 119° (tied record set in 2015)
Bullhead City, AZ: 120° (old record: 118°, 1985)
Death Valley, CA: 124° (tied record set in 2017)
Flagstaff: 91°
Las Vegas: 113°
Needles, CA: 121° (old record: 119°, 2017)
Palm Springs, CA: 119° (old record: 117°, 2017)
Phoenix: 117° (old record: 115°, 1989 and 2015)
Sacramento: 109° (old record: 106°, 2017)
Tucson: 112°

Tucson reached 110° or above for the 7th consecutive day with a high temperature of 112°. That broke the old record of 6 consecutive days, which was set during June 24-29, 1994.

Phoenix recorded a record-tying 4th consecutive day on which the temperature reached or exceeded 115°. This is also the earliest such stretch on record. The prior record was June 19-22, 1968. The most recent 4-day stretch occurred during 2020 (the only year with 2 such cases) during August 16-19, 2020.

Death Valley recorded its 4th consecutive day with a high temperature of 124° or above. That was the earliest such streak on record. The prior record was June 26-29, 1994. The 4-day average high temperature was 125.3°. The previous earliest 4-day high temperature average of 125° or above occurred during June 22-25, 2017.

The extreme heat will continue into the weekend. The temperature could reach 115° tomorrow and possibly Sunday in Phoenix. Phoenix's daily records for the June 19 are posted below.

Record high maximum temperatures:

June 19: 118°, 2016 and 2017

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 19: 86°, 1958 and 1959

In large part on account of Phoenix's ongoing extreme heat event, there is an implied 55% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near or just above 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +2.04 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.474 today.

On June 16 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.459 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.344 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.9° (1.9° above normal).

 

[doncat]

86/57 temp split today.