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April 20-21 late season snow potential


Hoosier
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1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

That’s definitely exaggeration. Sure, it’s more exciting when Chicago or Detroit or Pittsburgh gets the jackpot than when it’s in BFE places like Lima, OH, but 5+ inches anywhere non-mountainous in late April isn’t a non-event.

Hello, BFE resident here. You guys can have it. No skin off my back I promise you. :lol:

A 3-5" event this late in April is definitely noteworthy, even around here. And if we push 5"+? It'll be remembered for a bit. The SE trend has been amazing this year locally: one double digit big dog, several good 3-6"-ers, and now this. My bigger worry unfortunately is the cold blast that follows. Think we are setting up for a very significant freeze especially Wednesday night as skies clear and the northwesterlies die down some. Next 36 hours are going to be spent trying to protect as much plant life as possible since many things are very far along for this time of year.

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32 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Thank God it will be coming in mostly after dark. We need all the help we can get this time of year.

lol I don’t think the help we need is in the cold and miserable category, Mother Nature has proved the last several years now she can extend winter into early May.

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1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

That’s definitely exaggeration. Sure, it’s more exciting when Chicago or Detroit or Pittsburgh gets the jackpot than when it’s in BFE places like Lima, OH, but 5+ inches anywhere non-mountainous in late April isn’t a non-event.

I think we see maybe a couple spotty 5” reports, but this screams a 2-3” of slop in the “jackpot”kind of deal. 

But with that being said, mid-late April storms have shocked me before... see my earlier photo of the 4/14/19 8 incher. 

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The lingering model differences are not helpful and make for a somewhat tricky call, but in either case, it's a downgrade from my earlier expectations.

Scenario 1:

Precip onset time occurs around 7-8 am and quickly picks up in intensity with snow falling at a decent clip, which is able to lay down a base on colder surfaces prior to the increasing sun angle throughout the day.  This scenario potentially results in a couple inches or so.

Scenario 2:  

Precip onset time occurs slightly later in the morning and stays light the whole time, struggling to accumulate.  This would result in a light coating at most on colder surfaces.

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15 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I think we see maybe a couple spotty 5” reports, but this screams a 2-3” of slop in the “jackpot”kind of deal. 

But with that being said, mid-late April storms have shocked me before... see my earlier photo of the 4/14/19 8 incher. 

I don’t know the climatology for NW Ohio particularly well, but I would venture to guess that even 2-3” of slop in those areas in the 20s of April is incredibly rare.

The 4/14/19 storm is indeed impressive, but every week you add in spring makes multi-inch snowfalls anywhere in this region exponentially more impressive.

The difference between getting accumulating snow on 4/14 vs. 4/21 is simply not the same as the difference between getting accumulating snow on 2/14 vs. 2/21 or even 3/14 vs. 3/21.

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11 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I don’t know the climatology for NW Ohio particularly well, but I would venture to guess that even 2-3” of slop in those areas in the 20s of April is incredibly rare.

The 4/14/19 storm is indeed impressive, but every week you add in spring makes multi-inch snowfalls anywhere in this region exponentially more impressive.

The difference between getting accumulating snow on 4/14 vs. 4/21 is simply not the same as the difference between getting accumulating snow on 2/14 vs. 2/21 or even 3/14 vs. 3/21.

Using Toledo as an example, they have had only 3 calendar day snows of 1" or greater on or after 4/20: 

4/21/1922

5/9/1923

4/24/2005

Indianapolis has not had any measurable snow at all this late in the season since 1989.

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Using Toledo as an example, they have had only 3 calendar day snows of 1" or greater on or after 4/20: 

4/21/1922

5/9/1923

4/24/2005

Indianapolis has not had any measurable snow at all this late in the season since 1989.

I didn’t experience the 4/24/05 storm firsthand because I didn’t live in the affected area, but it might be the winner in my opinion when it comes to storms that occurred this late or later (besides MAYBE the May 27-29, 1947 WI/MN/IA snowstorm, but I can’t imagine there’s anyone on this forum that can attest firsthand to what happened during that storm).

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe the Ukie will never shift north.

This is 10:1 because that is all that is available

sn10_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.cacd196588ee7f309b4bb2d740e05647.png

Or fill in around south central illinois. Reminds me of the classic DC snow hole 

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21 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Euro ticked SE on 12z run.

Something I noticed on there over the last several runs is warming of the 925 mb temps.  Even after accounting for the southeast shifts, the 925 mb temps on the nw flank are warmer than before.  I think it's still cold enough to keep snow as the main ptype, but it puts even more importance on getting good rates.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Something I noticed on there over the last several runs is warming of the 925 mb temps.  Even after accounting for the southeast shifts, the 925 mb temps on the nw flank are warmer than before.  I think it's still cold enough to keep snow as the main ptype, but it puts even more importance on getting good rates.

 

1 minute ago, ILSNOW said:

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Firms up the prevailing wisdom of a non-event outside of the BFE area of Ohio.

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Something I noticed on there over the last several runs is warming of the 925 mb temps.  Even after accounting for the southeast shifts, the 925 mb temps on the nw flank are warmer than before.  I think it's still cold enough to keep snow as the main ptype, but it puts even more importance on getting good rates.

This trend translates into the sfc temps as well.  Here's a loop of the last several runs valid 18z Tuesday. The southeastward shifts are evident but notice the warming trend on the nw side as well.  This results in a more mixy outcome on the Euro.  

trend-ecmwf_full-2021041912-f030_sfct.us_mw.gif.e0b82c18c441f6e596e81a504f066fc8.gif

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We definitely got NAMmed by this event, and also the ECMWF being more bullish for several runs didn't help. I was never too excited about the heart of the metro and points west and northwest. But I was overly optimistic for the southeast 1/3 or so of the CWA while the NAM still had global guidance support from the Euro.

I suppose some surprises are possible if rates end up heavier along the lines of some of the meso models. Failing that though, Wednesday now appears to have a higher chance of interesting weather.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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48 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

We definitely got NAMmed by this event, and also the ECMWF being more bullish for several runs didn't help. I was never too excited about the heart of the metro and points west and northwest. But I was overly optimistic for the southeast 1/3 or so of the CWA while the NAM still had global guidance support from the Euro.

I suppose some surprises are possible if rates end up heavier along the lines of some of the meso models. Failing that though, Wednesday now appears to have a higher chance of interesting weather.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

May still be getting NAMmed as the 18z run is sticking with a decent hit I-80 southward in LOT.

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Latest Euro valid at 1PM Wednesday for Aurora:

2045742647_ScreenShot2021-04-19at4_06_44PM.png.19840ec24f69548860515070b2796229.png

0-3km lapse rates are 9.6C/km and the equilibrium level is more than cold enough for lightning (threshold is ~-30C). The freezing level is near 2000', but any heavy precip would be just enough to bring snow in the core of any potential convective cells. 

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22 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Latest Euro valid at 1PM Wednesday for Aurora:

2045742647_ScreenShot2021-04-19at4_06_44PM.png.19840ec24f69548860515070b2796229.png

0-3km lapse rates are 9.6C/km and the equilibrium level is more than cold enough for lightning (threshold is ~-30C). The freezing level is near 2000', but any heavy precip would be just enough to bring snow in the core of any potential convective cells. 

Looks impressive.  Could also result in hyper localized temp differences/fluctuations.

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