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Winter 2021-2022


40/70 Benchmark
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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ve actually already done this for larger storms for every season going back to 1950 iirc. It’s on my PC but it prob hasn’t been updated for the last couple seasons. I’ll have to post it when I’m back on my PC.

I remember running frequencies of 6+ and 12+ storms at the major climo sites. 

That's super amazing work. Understanding the frequencies and occurrence of events each season is huge IMO. I think we get way too fixated on "the pattern looks great" and set expectations way too high. Sure there is a reason why we have those thoughts...because such patterns have produced before but at the end of the day it's a massive bias because we remember the times the patterns produced (and have documented results) but what we really don't have are the times the production wasn't there. This type of philosophy can be applied year round as well. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ha I thought about going up to 40” on that Feb 1969 estimate for Farmington but I would’ve lowballed it anyway. That was a historic storm for much of NNE into E MA. 

Long Falls Dam"  56"  (Maine's top for a single storm)
Pinkham Notch:  77"
MWN:  98"
Even LEW reached 36", and to the northeast it's BGR's greatest snowfall at 30.9", though with far less impact than the 29.5" blizzard of 12/30-31/1962.
 

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53 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

What is the main difference between the two? They both appear to have the same functionality.

The xmacis site has more options/parameters I think and for the first order sites they are threaded (I.E they will combine the old site with the new site).

The climod site though will have all old defunct coops though and I’m not sure if the xmacis site has those. It might only be active sites. On climod2 I can look up some random coop that was only active from 1890 to 1920 or something and I’m not sure if I can do it on xmacis...at least I haven’t figured out to yet. 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can do this just by doing an Oct-Apr daily data lookup on climod2 or the https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org site and looking at the snowfall column. It’s not super fast since you have to keep changing the year to look at other winters but it’s pretty easy. 

Yea, I printed all of the seasonal totals for my 15 forecast locales yesterday on the Cornell site...use "the wet season" April-October.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, take the under on that lol, but this will not be last season. You should make a run at 100", anyway...

I wouldn't expect that, As well as 61-62 with 164".... lol, But 100" seasons happen here,  And after last year, It would seem like 144".

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, take the under on that lol, but this will not be last season. You should make a run at 100", anyway...

Do you do much research or exploring other teleconnections or do you mostly focus on ENSO/Arctic/QBO/MJO? 

Just curious b/c with your ability I think you would be able to make some great findings. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Do you do much research or exploring other teleconnections or do you mostly focus on ENSO/Arctic/QBO/MJO? 

Just curious b/c with your ability I think you would be able to make some great findings. 

I will delve into the Indian ocean at some point...was going to so it for this year, but didn't up doing it with Africa and everything.

Maybe next year...

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will delve into the Indian ocean at some point...was going to so it for this year, but didn't up doing it with Africa and everything.

Maybe next year...

Indian Ocean definitely has my interest as well and something I want to study more. In fact, I want to do much more with that area of the globe...not just for seasonal forecast but for long-range (talking 7-21 days) winter forecasting as well. I think that if we have a strong understanding of how models are performing across eastern Asia and the Pacific and how the PAC may begin to deviate there...that can give us immense clues about what we can anticipate here. This kinda gets into things like the AAM and mountain torques. 

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22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Indian Ocean definitely has my interest as well and something I want to study more. In fact, I want to do much more with that area of the globe...not just for seasonal forecast but for long-range (talking 7-21 days) winter forecasting as well. I think that if we have a strong understanding of how models are performing across eastern Asia and the Pacific and how the PAC may begin to deviate there...that can give us immense clues about what we can anticipate here. This kinda gets into things like the AAM and mountain torques. 

Yea, I don't even now what AAM and mountain torques are. Lots to learn still. 

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1970-71 was a dud from February on in NYC but great north and west...I remember seeing on the news about roofs collapsing in Port Jervis NY from heavy wet snow...the city got cold rain...1970-71 is one of those years that had snow on Christmas day and New Years day...1975-76 did it too...Boston got some heavy snow before Christmas 1975...

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7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The xmacis site has more options/parameters I think and for the first order sites they are threaded (I.E they will combine the old site with the new site).

The climod site though will have all old defunct coops though and I’m not sure if the xmacis site has those. It might only be active sites. On climod2 I can look up some random coop that was only active from 1890 to 1920 or something and I’m not sure if I can do it on xmacis...at least I haven’t figured out to yet. 

Xmacis has old coop data

Screenshot_20211106-232214_Chrome.jpg

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10 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Indian Ocean definitely has my interest as well and something I want to study more. In fact, I want to do much more with that area of the globe...not just for seasonal forecast but for long-range (talking 7-21 days) winter forecasting as well. I think that if we have a strong understanding of how models are performing across eastern Asia and the Pacific and how the PAC may begin to deviate there...that can give us immense clues about what we can anticipate here. This kinda gets into things like the AAM and mountain torques. 

I think the IO is one of the most underplayed influences in long range forecasting. Meteorologically still more to be discovered but it is a known driver of the NPAC jet which obviously has downstream impacts. 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

A great indicator for Australia though

I agree but a -IOD can enhance Walker Circulation = more robust convection over Maritime Continent = potentially more robust NPac Jet which can influence what infiltrates the Lower 48. This is one area that I think more research is needed to get a better grasp to specific impacts but from a general understanding this is what transpires.

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10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't even now what AAM and mountain torques are. Lots to learn still. 

HM is the go to for this but put very simply it is the amount of westerly momentum (or lack thereof) occurring around the globe. GSDL plots only show what has already happened so you can't really forecast based on that but it gives a snapshot of current conditions (total GLAAM, FT, MT, tendencies, etc). Gensini has a nice webpage that shows AAM forecast but it currently is not up to date. Also has a strong low bias since it is GFS based. To be perfectly honest it's a nice tool to have but if you don't have access to AAM model guidance (which most don't unless you have a high tier WxBell account or if Gensini's site updates), deterministic and ensemble models along with teleconnections are pretty much all you need in my opinion. Here is a post I made yesterday pertaining to AAM & MJO where you can use AAM to support a forecast but without the AAM forecast models themselves it is hard to solely rely on:

 

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53 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I know -IOD events (which we have now) help to enhance La Niña development. They very rarely occur during an El Niño, which favors +IOD 

 

18 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I think the IO is one of the most underplayed influences in long range forecasting. Meteorologically still more to be discovered but it is a known driver of the NPAC jet which obviously has downstream impacts. 

 

12 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I agree but a -IOD can enhance Walker Circulation = more robust convection over Maritime Continent = potentially more robust NPac Jet which can influence what infiltrates the Lower 48. This is one area that I think more research is needed to get a better grasp to specific impacts but from a general understanding this is what transpires.

 

5 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

HM is the go to for this but put very simply it is the amount of westerly momentum (or lack thereof) occurring around the globe. GSDL plots only show what has already happened so you can't really forecast based on that but it gives a snapshot of current conditions (total GLAAM, FT, MT, tendencies, etc). Gensini has a nice webpage that shows AAM forecast but it currently is not up to date. Also has a strong low bias since it is GFS based. To be perfectly honest it's a nice tool to have but if you don't have access to AAM model guidance (which most don't unless you have a high tier WxBell account or if Gensini's site updates), deterministic and ensemble models along with teleconnections are pretty much all you need in my opinion. Here is a post I made yesterday pertaining to AAM & MJO where you can use AAM to support a forecast but without the AAM forecast models themselves it is hard to solely rely on:

 

Winter influence is what I was referenced.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

However, four of the five international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the monthly IOD value for November will be within the neutral range, with the remaining model sitting just at the threshold value (i.e. −0.4 °C). A return to neutral weekly IOD values is anticipated in the coming weeks. This is consistent with the typical life cycle of an IOD event, which sees events dissipate in late spring or early summer with the arrival of the Australian monsoon. When the monsoon trough shifts south over the tropical Indian Ocean, it changes wind patterns and prevents an IOD event from forming. This is why IOD events are unable to form (and therefore influence Australian climate) during December to April.

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From what I've read, the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific Warm Pool are two areas under increased scrutiny in recent years, and continues to be. Mostly because of projected warming in that part of the world. Most of the research done previously did not look into possible global ramifications only local ones. The following recent paper, for example, attributes the +NAO of winter 19-20 to the very strong IOD of that fall. 

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.1005

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