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Torch Tiger

April 2021 Discussion

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Napril? Friday and Monday curl up by the fire or your newly installed window AC ?

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Hope those who have installed have a mini split

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22 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ensembles show a nice warm pac jet west to east flow. Nothing like last spring .May install Sunday to get that chore done 

Lol

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Not expecting anything here. Probably DXR to Belchtown , then fizzle 

You'll get rain and some rumbles at least.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Next week goes from 60 Monday to 75+ middle and end of week. Tomorrow’s it. It’s over 

Cutoff late week.

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Next week goes from 60 Monday to 75+ middle and end of week. Tomorrow’s it. It’s over 

Open windows for one day then another cutoff disaster. Low dews with your 75 meh

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Cutoff late week.

That could easily be south of SNE. He’s talking about more cold shots. They done .Tippy’s been discussing this for a week. After tomorrow cold is gone 

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9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Snowing at Sugarloaf this morning 

Wx2fish showed a pic of it ripping at Pittsburg. LTG up there too.

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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That could easily be south of SNE. He’s talking about more cold shots. They done .Tippy’s been discussing this for a week. After tomorrow cold is gone 

We are talking about installing air conditioning with 60s 70s 50s with lows in the lower 40s 30s. Guess I live on a different planet

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20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That could easily be south of SNE. He’s talking about more cold shots. They done .Tippy’s been discussing this for a week. After tomorrow cold is gone 

If that is south, then NE winds for us. 

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Early to mid week next week does look nice. It's more later Thursday into the weekend, but obviously that is getting out there. Normal caveats apply.

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wx2fish showed a pic of it ripping at Pittsburg. LTG up there too.

 

image.jpg

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59 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lots of Alto Cumulus Clouds around. Bangers incoming 

Just posted that in the severe weather thread..  Thought the same when I saw them

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Wx2fish showed a pic of it ripping at Pittsburg. LTG up there too.

A few inches at 1,500ft... 1.5" down in the village.  The picnic table snow cam got like 5" in 3 hours.

Good burst of heavy snow this morning.  Now we wait for this afternoon/evening's round.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not expecting anything here. Probably DXR to Belchtown , then fizzle 

Playing Connecticut national on Friday. What's the forest fire outlook?

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

62 out here. Gorgeaous morning. Oaks already starting to get to the point of buds---->tiny leaves.

60 but wind is starting to crank so off the ocean is starting to limit warming 

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19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

60 but wind is starting to crank so off the ocean is starting to limit warming 

Yep wind is blowing.

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I don't believe at this time the Euro will be more right about Monday's synopsis over eastern New England, than the weaker appeals of the consensus and other guidance types.

Its subtle, but crucially it's adding amplitude from seemingly nowhere regarding the southern stream impulse it is handling/ relaying through the TV from D4+  ... The model does this all the time at that particular temporal seam.  And that sets the stage for an erroneous, subsequent over phasing with a flat wave stabbing in from southern Canada. 

I agree with the general notion of stream/mechanical interactions there, but the Euro typically does this... it slows down flows ( or imposes extra curvature that results in slowing...) along that D4 to 5 interface. In fact, it then does that out there further in time too... But it ends up with more amplitude than other guidance and it's own EPS mean by too much on Monday, which lends to its wrapping in deeper cold tap.  We'll see, but I'm guess less there -

The bigger blow of cold is Thursday ... circa Saturday. I'm guessing it is the last major cold anomaly until further notice.  I see a pattern change - one perhaps augmented by mid august sun dosing the hemisphere at this point, and only getting stronger.  Which ever is more important in that relationship aside, there is a pretty coherent flashing over the hemisphere in all guidance and means - even though the Euro is suspiciously over amped for Monday, thereafter even it ends up with a tepid to warm hemisphere, too. 

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