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April 2021 Discussion

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There are other late-season storms on record. On May 18, 2002, northern Worcester County saw a small amount of heavy, wet snow. The only official National Weather Service report of that storm was from Ashburnham, where a weather spotter recorded 2.5 inches. There was an unofficial report of 4 inches in Templeton, and heavy snow collapsed tents at the Henshaw Farm - where 20 Confederate and 40 Union Civil War re-enactors fought the battle of the day with snowballs.

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yup. As much as 4” in Templeton MA from that 2002 event.  But I think it was 5/18?  

you know what ...I think yeah - it was within two days of one month from the solstice ... not sure which direction.

 

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Not that anyone is in a present frame of mind to take this in at this point but ... the GEF telecon is warm - not the Euro look.  ...

End winter and escape to summer enthusiast have at least that going for them -

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10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

There are other late-season storms on record. On May 18, 2002, northern Worcester County saw a small amount of heavy, wet snow. The only official National Weather Service report of that storm was from Ashburnham, where a weather spotter recorded 2.5 inches. There was an unofficial report of 4 inches in Templeton, and heavy snow collapsed tents at the Henshaw Farm - where 20 Confederate and 40 Union Civil War re-enactors fought the battle of the day with snowballs.

13 days later BIG severe weather outbreak..and a few others followed in june

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Lol...  ho man... I was just reviewing the 500 mb run up to that d10 Euro ... that thing's trying to put a single season snow total down in one event.  ...at the end of April no less...

The hilarity would know no bounds if that was like a 1::784 year deal  ( so basically it's never happen since white man stole the continent )  that dropped 70 inches...bringing the seasonal snow total to the snowiest year ever in history ...specifically to this particular winter's complete shit show ?

man... 

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29 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

There are other late-season storms on record. On May 18, 2002, northern Worcester County saw a small amount of heavy, wet snow. The only official National Weather Service report of that storm was from Ashburnham, where a weather spotter recorded 2.5 inches. There was an unofficial report of 4 inches in Templeton, and heavy snow collapsed tents at the Henshaw Farm - where 20 Confederate and 40 Union Civil War re-enactors fought the battle of the day with snowballs.

ORH had 0.7" from that storm,  but it is not in the official database....but it was actually in their old archived PNS of that storm and it matches my obs (i recall nearly an inch in that)

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25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol...  ho man... I was just reviewing the 500 mb run up to that d10 Euro ... that thing's trying to put a single season snow total down in one event.  ...at the end of April no less...

The hilarity would know no bounds if that was like a 1::784 year deal  ( so basically it's never happen since white man stole the continent )  that dropped 70 inches...bringing the seasonal snow total to the snowiest year ever in history ...specifically to this particular winter's complete shit show ?

man... 

Lol that run was close to dropping that tpv in , edit woops I was looking at the earlier event didn’t even notice day 10 jeez

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Too far south 

Watch the recurving Typhoon for another trough end of the month

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Getting those putrid 1980s out of there was important. Particularly for southeast New England where that decade was the worst. 

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

There are other late-season storms on record. On May 18, 2002, northern Worcester County saw a small amount of heavy, wet snow. The only official National Weather Service report of that storm was from Ashburnham, where a weather spotter recorded 2.5 inches. There was an unofficial report of 4 inches in Templeton, and heavy snow collapsed tents at the Henshaw Farm - where 20 Confederate and 40 Union Civil War re-enactors fought the battle of the day with snowballs.

That dropped some decent snow in Western MA too, a few inches in Shutesbury and Pelham. We even had some snow down to the valley floor in Amherst where I was living at the time and some brief heavy snow late morning before it ended. Neat event. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Getting those putrid 1980s out of there was important. Particularly for southeast New England where that decade was the worst. 

I realize few like to engage in this subject matter - as it typically goes largely ignored ... but, this actually adds empirical evidence to my spring winter lagged 'continental folding' pattern hypothesis. 

It basically is that Pac velocity surplus entering western N/A as the continental gradient from 70 N to 35 N begins to seasonally break down, that's triggering a hemispheric scale quasi Kelvin-Hemholtz wave effect that arcs/tends to B.C.... then tucks at super synoptic scales E of mid latitude points and drills SE Canadian thicknesses down ...   But it's transient. By later on in May and June - it actually helps explain why these NW NE heat waves have been happening... The folding ridge arc settles S as the Pac gradient lessens ...The conveyor aligns  over those regions and draws early SW eml air over that region ...while we see a weird tendency to counter balance that flow with a quasi polarward displaced E trade coming into the MA ... DCA is concomitantly colder that BTV pretty frequently in recent years too just by anecdotal memory but don't hold me to that..

Anyway, our location/SE Canada, in geographic space in relationship to the hemisphere/plantery spatial dimension, favors us cold because we are in the cross hairs...  might also help explain why since 2000 ...NOAA's state of the climate monthly publications indicate that ~ 2/3rds of the months in the data represent a relative cool anomaly in or at least near the eastern N/A circumvallate.

Perhaps in short ... as the advisers of climate change have noted in modeling all along, CC and warming atmosphere has offsetting cold holes that tend to counter intuitively go against the integral - we may just be one of those regions. 

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1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Second consecutive solidly BN snowfall season here. 29” for 20-21. Up from 19.5” over 19-20’s total. 

57 here which is about the new average 

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23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

HRRR did well with this storm

 

Scoots said yesterday when the HRRR locks in 10-12 runs in a row it tends to be lethal. When it jumps around it fails 

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4 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

There was also the Memorial Day weekend storm in VT a few years back. That was wild

Dendy and Gene had a fun evening in that one... was it thunder snow for them?  

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After the mountains stole my 12+ inches of snow that I forecasted in the Boston-Providence corridor (I got .1 inches of snow), I thought this was it and we wouldn’t have another threat until November-December. However, I looked at the most recent Euro run and it appears it has a historic late April blizzard at hour 240. Looking at the upper level pattern and taking into account the fact that the Euro is the best long range model we have, this cannot be ignored and is a very realistic solution. There is a piece of the polar vortex diving south and phasing with the southern branch. The flow is also extremely amplified, and there is blocking in place to keep a lobe of the polar vortex in place over eastern Canada, which is our cold air source. While it is late April, this is not a normal spring pattern due to how far south the polar vortex is diving down. Typically in early spring, the polar vortex is sitting over the North Pole, undisturbed. However, on the euro it is displaced and several pieces are breaking off. This is as good of a pattern as it gets for monster blizzards in eastern mass, other than the whole late April thing (unfortunately, this cannot be ignored. It is a legitimate issue and will be a limiting factor to an extent). However, on the euro while it isn’t Arctic, the air mass is colder than it was for our current storm, and the trough digs more, and strengthens more than our current storm. Due to the extremely unusual clash of an early March like air mass combined with mid spring ocean temps and a highly amplified and blocked pattern, there is big potential in this pattern. I would favor more CNE/NNE/elevated areas rather than eastern mass for now due to the calendar date, but even as far south as Metfan is in the threat area and should keep an eye on this. If it comes together, watch out, the storm would be more dynamic, colder, and bring in more QPF than this one so it has tons of upside. 

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5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hard to totally ignore the deep troughing sig over the eastern half of the CONUS. While it is unlikely, another snow event is certainly plausible in that pattern.

I strongly agree. It is late April so the probably of a snow event is unlikely, the pattern is as supportive as it can get for late April, and if things do come together when you combine an unseasonably cold airmass with warm spring ocean temps that would allow for rapid cyclogenesis. The warm ocean air is a double edged sword though, as it wouldn’t take much even with a monster slow moving ocean low to bring enough warm air in to screw over eastern mass and change us to rain. Due to this, areas that got hit the hardest by this storm would be favored again for the next one. I’m not going to call for totals yet but the euro would be one hell off storm.

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2 deep troughs in the next ten days. 5h in the 520 range. Interior CNE NNE snow is possible.  Mon to Wed looks beautiful 

download (8).png

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