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wdrag

April 2021

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18 hours ago, bluewave said:

1967 was legendary for late season cold.

How does this compare with what happened in April 2014?  I remember we had some very late season snow and cold then too.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 52degs.(44/60), or about +2.0

(I had 28/39 yesterday)

33*(43%RH) here at 6am.      32* at 6:30am.      35* by 9am.   40* by Noon.     42* by 1pm.       45* at 2pm.       50* by 3:30pm.        54* around 5:30pm.     46* by 7pm.

T rises quickly this AM and stays in and around normal till after the 10th.       Dry till that same time too.

btw:    1967 had virtually every summer season  weekend as a rainout, or a threat to rain, and kept crowds away.      It was compared to the 1903? rainouts business disaster in CI.    

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it stayed in the 30s!  How often does that happen in April?

 

This is only the 3rd April since 1990 with a NYC high temperature below 40°. The other 2 years were 2003 and 1995.  It was also the first -14 daily temperature departure in NYC since November 18th.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Lowest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
2021 39 28
2020 46 0
2019 45 0
2018 43 0
2017 48 0
2016 43 0
2015 43 0
2014 47 0
2013 43 0
2012 52 0
2011 44 0
2010 52 0
2009 48 0
2008 50 0
2007 41 0
2006 47 0
2005 50 0
2004 43 0
2003 37 0
2002 45 0
2001 43 0
2000 43 0
1999 46 0
1998 48 0
1997 42 0
1996 40 0
1995 39 0
1994 53 0
1993 41 0
1992 45 0
1991 46 0
1990 46 0
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No thread on my part but three more opportunities for snow lurk in our subforum. later tonight ne PA/nw NJ, probably no big deal tho 1/2" possible higher terrain ne PA.  Then the 9th-11th (next Fri-Sun),  Potential for a pretty big long duration periodic rain event (1"+) with wind (40kt) for a part of  the sub forum coast with high terrain wet snow possible. Ensembles don't favor snow, certainly nothing like the 00z/3 EC snow depth forecast (just nw NYC). There's even something during mid month?  Keeping an eye on it.  Figure future modeling will shrink the snow,  not sure the sizable storm will disappear in what appears to me to be a favorable blocking pattern for a slow mover somewhere along the Mid Atlantic Coast. 

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25 minutes ago, wdrag said:

No thread on my part but three more opportunities for snow lurk in our subforum. later tonight ne PA/nw NJ, probably no big deal tho 1/2" possible higher terrain ne PA.  Then the 9th-11th (next Fri-Sun),  Potential for a pretty big long duration periodic rain event (1"+) with wind (40kt) for a part of  the sub forum coast with high terrain wet snow possible. Ensembles don't favor snow, certainly nothing like the 00z/3 EC snow depth forecast (just nw NYC). There's even something during mid month?  Keeping an eye on it.  Figure future modeling will shrink the snow,  not sure the sizable storm will disappear in what appears to me to be a favorable blocking pattern for a slow mover somewhere along the Mid Atlantic Coast. 

 

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Walt, great post. It looks like we could see a slow moving cutoff with the blocking to the north. I have noticed that the new OP GFS v16 beyond 120 hrs has tried to cut storms to our west with blocking last winter. It seems to adjust south as we get closer to 96-120 hrs.  Even the GEFS has a slow moving system going underneath to the Mid Atlantic coast. 

B3010792-098E-4F30-BB71-C7F5CD6387C6.thumb.png.dd4e83aff1542751823b0699b9c26139.png

98FF917D-20E7-41FB-B198-3CC50C982E23.thumb.png.ca8c36e229dab96e3bf1e7829ec5ae70.png

927B9221-E8A6-4C61-86EE-BF36653A6E69.thumb.png.b2143bd1b17f2c0e8616903bf2a764c5.png


 

 

It could wind up being a substantial rain and wind maker for the area with some frozen further NW as Walt mentioned. We'll see.

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Morning thoughts...

Across the region, temperatures again started at or below freezing. At Allentown, the low temperature of 20° tied the daily record set in 1954. Saranac Lake reported a near record low of just 2°.

The cold start will give way to a warmer afternoon. Today will be mostly sunny and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 54°

Newark: 55°

Philadelphia: 55°

The warming trend will continue through the weekend.

Out West, there is a chance that the temperature could make a run at 100° at Phoenix for the first time this year tomorrow. Should the temperature reach the century mark, that would be the 3rd earliest such temperature on record for Phoenix. 

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it stayed in the 30s!  How often does that happen in April?

 

It is increasingly uncommon. The last time it happened was April 9, 2003. Since 1950, there have been only 9 such dates:

April 8, 1956

April 4, 1975

April 7, 1982

April 9, 1982

April 5, 1995

April 7, 2003

April 8, 2003

April 9, 2003

April 2, 2021

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Looks like another low dewpoint and low relative humidity special today. Dewpoints are forecast to drop to near 0 with temperatures getting back above 50°. We make a run on 60° tomorrow and get back into the 60s on Monday. So it’s tough to maintain the record cold of the last few days very long.

 

KEWR   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    4/03/2021  0600 UTC                      
 DT /APR   3      /APR   4                /APR   5             /     
 HR   12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 
 X/N              55          38          58          40       65    
 TMP  36 44 52 55 51 46 42 40 44 49 55 56 53 48 44 42 46 56 62 58 50 
 DPT   9  3  3  5 11 17 21 25 29 31 31 29 29 30 29 28 29 28 27 30 32 

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47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like another low dewpoint and low relative humidity special today. Dewpoints are forecast to drop to near 0 with temperatures getting back above 50°. We make a run on 60° tomorrow and get back into the 60s on Monday. So it’s tough to maintain the record cold of the last few days very long.

 

KEWR   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    4/03/2021  0600 UTC                      
 DT /APR   3      /APR   4                /APR   5             /     
 HR   12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 
 X/N              55          38          58          40       65    
 TMP  36 44 52 55 51 46 42 40 44 49 55 56 53 48 44 42 46 56 62 58 50 
 DPT   9  3  3  5 11 17 21 25 29 31 31 29 29 30 29 28 29 28 27 30 32 

I really hope these dew points start rising, I have serious dry skin and then these cool days and I having scorched air heat makes it crazy dry. 
 

Unfortunately the last 5-8 years April has become my least desirable month. I remember when April came around we seemed to always get at least one heat wave. My favorite being 1991 I was in 9th grade and I remember how hot it was coming out of school. 
 

Seems to me the last couple years starting in April and it seems to always persist to about the last week of June then suddenly it’s like a switch flips to all out summer.

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

God spring sucks in the northeast. I gotta move at some point. By April it should be warm 

It really does. So often it'll be a sea of warmth with a little cold and/or gloomy pocket in the northeast to New England. You dont even have to go that far for a much nicer springs. Just to Philly its noticeably better and a DC spring will make you think you traveled way more than just a couple hundred miles. Also this super dry air is an asthma nightmare, esp combined with pollen. When can we get dew points consistently 40+, and be totally done with single digits like today.

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33 minutes ago, dave0176 said:

I really hope these dew points start rising, I have serious dry skin and then these cool days and I having scorched air heat makes it crazy dry. 
 

Unfortunately the last 5-8 years April has become my least desirable month. I remember when April came around we seemed to always get at least one heat wave. My favorite being 1991 I was in 9th grade and I remember how hot it was coming out of school. 
 

Seems to me the last couple years starting in April and it seems to always persist to about the last week of June then suddenly it’s like a switch flips to all out summer.

Yeah, the low humidity season usually peaks in March and April here. Things should gradually moisten back up going into next week. Then it looks like our next chance of significant rain again in about a week. We saw this in March when we went from very dry to wet again. The main take away is that dry patterns don’t have much staying power in our new wetter climate.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=157&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&year=2020&var=min_rh&dir=below&thres=20&dpi=100&_fmt=png


604FBB32-5051-4BB8-8DFB-A6BC80ECFFA9.png.a69e1f5709ba889470e299296e351b71.png

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2 hours ago, psv88 said:

God spring sucks in the northeast. I gotta move at some point. By April it should be warm 

It's my least favorite season.

The erratic weather that's still too cool for summery activities, mud season, fog season, wind season, allergy season, dry/fire season, bug season, too cold for beach/lake, the end of winter. 

Mid March through mid May or early June some years is yuck even with seemingly nice days due to all the other factors mentioned.

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45 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's my least favorite season.

The erratic weather that's still too cool for summery activities, mud season, fog season, wind season, allergy season, dry/fire season, bug season, too cold for beach/lake, the end of winter. 

Mid March through mid May or early June some years is yuck even with seemingly nice days due to all the other factors mentioned.

Yea agreed. April is definitely the worst month. Spring being wind season is the worst as well. 

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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It is increasingly uncommon. The last time it happened was April 9, 2003. Since 1950, there have been only 9 such dates:

April 8, 1956

April 4, 1975

April 7, 1982

April 9, 1982

April 5, 1995

April 7, 2003

April 8, 2003

April 9, 2003

April 2, 2021

Wow, 9 times (or 6 April's) over a span of 70 years is impressive.

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April's coldest max days...

Coldest daily max...

30 5th 1881

30 7th 1982

31 6th 1881

32 4th 1879

32 5th 1879

32 18th 1875

33 17th 1875

33 6th 1938

34 6th 1943

34 5th 1944

34 3rd 1896

34 1st 1874

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Under an almost cloudless sky, the temperature rose into the lower 50s following the second consecutive morning with freezing temperatures. Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden:

NYBG04032021-5.jpg

NYBG04032021-1.jpg

NYBG04032021-3.jpg

NYBG04032021-4.jpg

NYBG04032021-2.jpg

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Tough to keep the 60s away for long this time of year.

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/03/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SUN 04| MON 05| TUE 06| WED 07| THU 08| FRI 09| SAT 10|SUN CLIMO
 N/X  38  59| 41  66| 43  62| 46  63| 47  64| 47  59| 46  63| 48 40 59

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20 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's my least favorite season.

The erratic weather that's still too cool for summery activities, mud season, fog season, wind season, allergy season, dry/fire season, bug season, too cold for beach/lake, the end of winter. 

Mid March through mid May or early June some years is yuck even with seemingly nice days due to all the other factors mentioned.

Good evening SS14. The season we just left is the one I’ll soon be a permanent part of. April being my birth month, I will always have a special fondness for. My favorite American poet, Paul Simon, said and sang it best; “ April come she will. When streams are ripe and swelled with rain” the summer and fall will follow until, as Paul says, “A love once new has now grown old” being alone and near the end give the words a greater meaning to me.  As always ....

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The region started with readings at or below freezing for a second consecutive day. However, the strengthening April sun boosted temperatures into the 50s in much of the region during the afternoon.

Elsewhere, daily record low temperatures were set or tied. Daily records included:

Allentown: 20° (tied record set in 1954)
Charleston, SC: 31° (old record: 33°, 1962)
Charlotte: 26° (old record: 28°, 1972)
Columbia, SC: 28° (tied record set 1992)
Jacksonville: 36° (old record: 39°, 1962)
Savannah: 32° (old record: 33°, 1966)
Sherbrooke, QC: 9° (old record: 28°, 2008)
Wilmington, NC: 30° (old record: 31°, 1992)

Meanwhile, in the Southwest, Phoenix reached a record-tying high temperature of 97° today.

That warming trend will tomorrow into early next week. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s in parts of the  Middle Atlantic region tomorrow and then in much of the region on Monday.

Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case despite the current strong cold shot.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -0.46 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.533 today.

On April 1 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.398 (RMM). The March 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.297 (RMM).

 

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19 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is only the 3rd April since 1990 with a NYC high temperature below 40°. The other 2 years were 2003 and 1995.  It was also the first -14 daily temperature departure in NYC since November 18th.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Lowest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
2021 39 28
2020 46 0
2019 45 0
2018 43 0
2017 48 0
2016 43 0
2015 43 0
2014 47 0
2013 43 0
2012 52 0
2011 44 0
2010 52 0
2009 48 0
2008 50 0
2007 41 0
2006 47 0
2005 50 0
2004 43 0
2003 37 0
2002 45 0
2001 43 0
2000 43 0
1999 46 0
1998 48 0
1997 42 0
1996 40 0
1995 39 0
1994 53 0
1993 41 0
1992 45 0
1991 46 0
1990 46 0

Surprised we didn't say below 40 for a high that day in April 2018 when we had 6" of snow!

I remember April 1995 very well for some reason, that was a sunny and very cold day and it was weird to see it so cold in April without any snow lol.

Made up for it the following April and almost had back to back Aprils of below 40.

2003 had the all day snowstorm in April of course, one of my favorite snow seasons of all time.

 

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18 hours ago, wdrag said:

No thread on my part but three more opportunities for snow lurk in our subforum. later tonight ne PA/nw NJ, probably no big deal tho 1/2" possible higher terrain ne PA.  Then the 9th-11th (next Fri-Sun),  Potential for a pretty big long duration periodic rain event (1"+) with wind (40kt) for a part of  the sub forum coast with high terrain wet snow possible. Ensembles don't favor snow, certainly nothing like the 00z/3 EC snow depth forecast (just nw NYC). There's even something during mid month?  Keeping an eye on it.  Figure future modeling will shrink the snow,  not sure the sizable storm will disappear in what appears to me to be a favorable blocking pattern for a slow mover somewhere along the Mid Atlantic Coast. 

snowing right now near and north of Allentown!

 

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18 hours ago, bluewave said:

Walt, great post. It looks like we could see a slow moving cutoff with the blocking to the north. I have noticed that the new OP GFS v16 beyond 120 hrs has tried to cut storms to our west with blocking last winter. It seems to adjust south as we get closer to 96-120 hrs.  Even the GEFS has a slow moving system going underneath to the Mid Atlantic coast. 

B3010792-098E-4F30-BB71-C7F5CD6387C6.thumb.png.dd4e83aff1542751823b0699b9c26139.png

98FF917D-20E7-41FB-B198-3CC50C982E23.thumb.png.ca8c36e229dab96e3bf1e7829ec5ae70.png

927B9221-E8A6-4C61-86EE-BF36653A6E69.thumb.png.b2143bd1b17f2c0e8616903bf2a764c5.png


 

 

what kind of temps are we talking about with these storms?

Mid April was mentioned....could we be talking about something like April 15, 2007, aka the Tax Day noreaster?

 

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17 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It is increasingly uncommon. The last time it happened was April 9, 2003. Since 1950, there have been only 9 such dates:

April 8, 1956

April 4, 1975

April 7, 1982

April 9, 1982

April 5, 1995

April 7, 2003

April 8, 2003

April 9, 2003

April 2, 2021

Three days in 2003 really stands out, almost as much as what happened in 1982.

People often mention the extreme cold in April 1982 but forget that April 2003 was also pretty extreme.  Is 3 straight days the record for April, Don?  Looks like we could've also done it in 1982 but barely missed with the day in between?

 

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15 hours ago, dave0176 said:

I really hope these dew points start rising, I have serious dry skin and then these cool days and I having scorched air heat makes it crazy dry. 
 

Unfortunately the last 5-8 years April has become my least desirable month. I remember when April came around we seemed to always get at least one heat wave. My favorite being 1991 I was in 9th grade and I remember how hot it was coming out of school. 
 

Seems to me the last couple years starting in April and it seems to always persist to about the last week of June then suddenly it’s like a switch flips to all out summer.

2002 was awesome too

 

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14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the low humidity season usually peaks in March and April here. Things should gradually moisten back up going into next week. Then it looks like our next chance of significant rain again in about a week. We saw this in March when we went from very dry to wet again. The main take away is that dry patterns don’t have much staying power in our new wetter climate.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=157&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&year=2020&var=min_rh&dir=below&thres=20&dpi=100&_fmt=png


604FBB32-5051-4BB8-8DFB-A6BC80ECFFA9.png.a69e1f5709ba889470e299296e351b71.png

arent dry patterns more common in the summer?  I thought they would be with a nice blocking SE ridge holding fronts back to our north and west.  By dry I mean least rainfall, not lowest humidity lol

 

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12 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s very challenging to get wall to wall warmth here during March, April, and May. The NYC average temperature in March is 42.5°...April 53.0°...May...62.4°. So the springs that everyone remembers as warm usually went 45°..55°...65°. So 3 consecutive +2 to +3 spring months. We had the 45°+ March and 80° record warmth. But the record cold to start April reversed the March pattern. The only 3 years I can find were 2012, 2010, and 1985. 
 

NYC....45....55....65....springs since 1981

2012 50.9 54.8 65.1

 

2010 48.2 57.9 65.3


 

1985 45.8 55.5 65.2

 

why is it that these months were much warmer in the 90s and early 00s?

April 2002 is my benchmark for spring warmth.

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