Bob's Burgers

Severe Event March 25th 2021

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1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

I know the Euro isn’t a hi-res CAM. Just didn’t know if maybe there was a hi-res CAM produced in Europe. They’re better than us at making cars, airplanes, and I would assume weather models too.

If you go on weather.us, you can see some different CAMs out of Europe, not sure if any are associated with the ECMWF though. Looks like there's an ICON CAM. None of these are run outside of Europe though

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7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

If you go on weather.us, you can see some different CAMs out of Europe, not sure if any are associated with the ECMWF though. Looks like there's an ICON CAM. None of these are run outside of Europe though

So long story short, there is no model made in Europe designed to forecast severe weather outbreaks in the US.

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27 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

If you go on weather.us, you can see some different CAMs out of Europe, not sure if any are associated with the ECMWF though. Looks like there's an ICON CAM. None of these are run outside of Europe though

The ECMWF only has one modeling system, which does not include anything operating at CAM resolution. The fact that they only develop and maintain one modeling system probably gives them an advantage over the plethora of U.S. models that have to be maintained and run. At some point in the future, global models will be run routinely at CAM resolution, and it wouldn't be surprising if the ECMWF ends up leading the way there. 

While the ECMWF is the best model overall, it was one of the models that was overdone with the deepening of the surface low during the day yesterday (as referenced above). In reality, there was only gradual deepening, and winds that quickly veered across much of central/northern MS during the day never really backed around like some guidance showed. That basically shut off the potential in most of the MS portion of the High Risk, and reduced the threat in northern AL and TN since storms had little time to mature on the effective boundary before moving into those regions. 

Yesterday was a fascinating event to watch, though unfortunately one with tragic consequences. Most storms didn't do much of anything, and the ones that did produce seemed to take forever to mature. The mature supercells that did finally develop were pretty nasty and long-lived, though. Also had some long-lived left-movers further north. I think one left-mover developed in AL and ended up in OH before dissipating, producing some hail and wind damage around Nashville along the way. 

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14 minutes ago, thunderbird12 said:

The ECMWF only has one modeling system, which does not include anything operating at CAM resolution. The fact that they only develop and maintain one modeling system probably gives them an advantage over the plethora of U.S. models that have to be maintained and run. At some point in the future, global models will be run routinely at CAM resolution, and it wouldn't be surprising if the ECMWF ends up leading the way there. 

While the ECMWF is the best model overall, it was one of the models that was overdone with the deepening of the surface low during the day yesterday (as referenced above). In reality, there was only gradual deepening, and winds that quickly veered across much of central/northern MS during the day never really backed around like some guidance showed. That basically shut off the potential in most of the MS portion of the High Risk, and reduced the threat in northern AL and TN since storms had little time to mature on the effective boundary before moving into those regions. 

Yesterday was a fascinating event to watch, though unfortunately one with tragic consequences. Most storms didn't do much of anything, and the ones that did produce seemed to take forever to mature. The mature supercells that did finally develop were pretty nasty and long-lived, though. Also had some long-lived left-movers further north. I think one left-mover developed in AL and ended up in OH before dissipating, producing some hail and wind damage around Nashville along the way. 

I’m not describing yesterday as a bust at all. The residents of Newnan, GA and  Ohatchee, AL certainly wouldn’t. Though there weren’t a lot of storms, most of the ones that did form were massive and produced very long track tornadoes. I’m merely stating that the HRRR badly misplaced the locations that were most at risk. At the same time, I fully understand that we as humans have a lot to learn about how these mechanisms work and it’s humbling to see how far off we often are from what was forecast and what the models predicted.

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55 minutes ago, Witness Protection Program said:

Man, that house with the yellow-green car at :37 and 2:15.  Even the half-basement wasn't safe.

What a sinking feeling it would be to have your home crumble into a pile of toothpicks while the guy across the street lost a few shingles and some lawn chairs.  That’s what makes these storms so frightening.  It’s a lottery.

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1 hour ago, Witness Protection Program said:

I'd give it a 3.  But we all know the E. German judge will give it a 2.

Is there an inside joke that I'm missing? 

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I have learned two things from this outbreak.  One is Tony Lyza's comments about the EML being so strong it prevented cells from fully maturing over MS until they got to the AL line and eastward.  The other is that the supposed King (the Euro)  had the surface pressure for this down to 988 and 982 mb which was way too deep for what transpired.

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9 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Was wondering the same thing. I don't get it

Harkens back to Cold War days and the perception or possibly the fact that certain judges from the communist block would tend to score western athletes lower than average in world championship and Olympic events where judging matters.

In this context, I would assume the poster was indicating others may rate the tornado ef2 even though some may think it should be higher.

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24 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

I have learned two things from this outbreak.  One is Tony Lyza's comments about the EML being so strong it prevented cells from fully maturing over MS until they got to the AL line and eastward.  The other is that the supposed King (the Euro)  had the surface pressure for this down to 988 and 982 mb which was way too deep for what transpired.

To be frank, it seemed like most of the models missed on this feature, not just the Euro. 

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2 hours ago, Indystorm said:

I have learned two things from this outbreak.  One is Tony Lyza's comments about the EML being so strong it prevented cells from fully maturing over MS until they got to the AL line and eastward.  The other is that the supposed King (the Euro)  had the surface pressure for this down to 988 and 982 mb which was way too deep for what transpired.

I definitely think the weaker low was a big factor for MS. It strengthened very slow and not nearly as deep as it progged days ago. This led to weaker winds at sfc and not really backed with limited pressure falls. The early wave of storms to really messed with the wind field in MS. Subsidence behind it likely lead to the clearing and deeper mixing. This contributed to the veered sfc flow in addition to weaker sfc low. Just like last week, wind field was better across AL with S to SE winds. I think even if the EML wasn't as strong, MS storms may still have struggled to produce significant tornadoes with less directional shear in the low levels. 

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Convective setups almost always verify southeast of modeled.   Some by a little and some by a lot.  Any sort of linear mode or convective blob quickly inoculates most of the potential for the NW part of the high risk area.

East coast snowstorms are the opposite,  They almost always end up NW of modeled.  Some by a little and some by a lot.

 

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25 minutes ago, Amped said:

Convective setups almost always verify southeast of modeled.   Some by a little and some by a lot.  Any sort of linear mode or convective blob quickly inoculates most of the potential for the NW part of the high risk area.

East coast snowstorms are the opposite,  They almost always end up NW of modeled.  Some by a little and some by a lot.

 

Thanks for the PTSD, I’m still bitter about the 2/15-16 debacle. Especially considering it was followed by a storm that somehow had a major last-minute SE shift and we haven’t seen snow in Pittsburgh since.

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Have there been any damage reports out of east-central AL from the same supercell that produced the Newnan tornado? We had some pretty bad signatures from that area last night too but haven't heard of any reports.

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2 hours ago, TexMexWx said:

Have there been any damage reports out of east-central AL from the same supercell that produced the Newnan tornado? We had some pretty bad signatures from that area last night too but haven't heard of any reports.

Looks like preliminary high end EF3 for Newnan 

received_1410975182571398.jpeg

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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

Looks like preliminary high end EF3 for Newnan 

received_1410975182571398.jpeg

Yeah, I was referring more to the Goldville - Roanoke, AL area where I recall we had another big velocity + debris sig and PDS tornado warning.

Newnan tornado does actually remind me quite a bit of the Jefferson City, MO tornado in 2019 just by several similarities in the situations. Unfortunately seems like there was a fatality in Newnan, from a person killed by a falling tree on their home, if I remember/heard correctly.

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48 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Looks like preliminary high end EF3 for Newnan 

received_1410975182571398.jpeg

I'd be surprised if it's a high end EF3 on first blush that they don't find one or two instances of lower bound EF4 damage.  Those preliminary damage surveys sometimes upgrade later especially with stronger tornadoes.

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56 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

Yeah, I was referring more to the Goldville - Roanoke, AL area where I recall we had another big velocity + debris sig and PDS tornado warning.

Newnan tornado does actually remind me quite a bit of the Jefferson City, MO tornado in 2019 just by several similarities in the situations. Unfortunately seems like there was a fatality in Newnan, from a person killed by a falling tree on their home, if I remember/heard correctly.

Yeah I think there was one death with that tornado. That outbreak definitely overperformed with several intense tornadoes esp at dusk or after dark. 

10 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

I'd be surprised if it's a high end EF3 on first blush that they don't find one or two instances of lower bound EF4 damage.  Those preliminary damage surveys sometimes upgrade later especially with stronger tornadoes.

I was thinking the same thing. I saw a few pictures where houses were leveled and partially swept off foundation. Those were nicer homes to so guessing it would be properly anchored. 

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1 minute ago, Indystorm said:

I presume Newnan is our first EF-4 of the year then?

Yep, first to be rated as such at least (we'll see what surveys find with the Greensboro - Brent/Centreville - Columbiana tornado)

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Just now, TexMexWx said:

Yep, first to be rated as such at least (we'll see what surveys find with the Greensboro - Brent/Centreville - Columbiana tornado)

I would be incredibly surprised if this one wasn't also an EF-4 (or 5).

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11 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

I would be incredibly surprised if this one wasn't also an EF-4 (or 5).

I have almost no doubt that it reached at least EF4 intensity, but obviously, availability of damage indicators to rate it as such is something TBD. The only area I've seen so far that has that "look" of violent tornado damage is closer to Greensboro, but even then it looks more like contextual damage rather than primary, more clear-cut DIs. BMX posted in a tweet earlier that they won't survey much of that tornado's path (which I'm sure includes a lot of places we haven't seen yet) until the weekend, and so far only got to EF1 damage near the end of the tornado's life, west of Wilsonville iirc.

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6 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

The only area I've seen so far that has that "look" of violent tornado damage is closer to Greensboro, but even then it looks more like contextual damage rather than primary, more clear-cut DIs.

Here is the scene I'm referring to: 

https://mobile.twitter.com/GolemanChase/status/1375247349962973185

^ Granted, all the debris plastered across that field had to come from somewhere obviously, but I haven't seen pics of leveled houses well-built enough to earn an EF4+ rating (yet), which is my main point.

Jeff Piotrowski also surveyed some pretty high-end stuff earlier today as well, saw things like wooden planks and maybe even a feather just embedded deep into the ground by the tornado. Very heavy tree damage along a good chunk of the path, as well.

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8 hours ago, Witness Protection Program said:

Man, that house with the yellow-green car at :37 and 2:15.  Even the half-basement wasn't safe.

That house was built in 2003, if you're curious about timeframe for construction standards.  The houses on that road, and adjacent culdesacs in damage videos, are all from about that timeframe and a straight line to the school. The houses on that side of the road are cut into a hill with lots of trees left for backyards.  I'm pretty familiar with that area.

 

It's been a bummer of a day seeing chewed-up familiar places in the damage videos being posted.

 

 

 

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Man, that house with the yellow-green car at :37 and 2:15.  Even the half-basement wasn't safe.
This has my eye, too. I'd like to see some before pictures to understand what happened.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

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