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Severe Event March 25th 2021


Bob's Burgers
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Holy crap... just woke up and checked this :o

Looks like my parents missed it (they're a mile east of the FFC radar) but my in-laws are in downtown Fayetteville... and wife's sister lives in Atlanta...

And crap, I just remembered my wife's grandfather lives in Newnan now :yikes:

Update:everybody's fine...

 

 

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This was from before the final storms further to the south went off, but this suggests to me that the high risk area ended up being too far west (we already knew that), too far north, and not far enough to the east. Can’t say that I blame the SPC at all either. This shows how off the models were at handling this set-up as they quite a ways off to the west and north with this. 

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4 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

This was from before the final storms further to the south went off, but this suggests to me that the high risk area ended up being too far west (we already knew that), too far north, and not far enough to the east. Can’t say that I blame the SPC at all either. This shows how off the models were at handling this set-up as they quite a ways off to the west and north with this. 

As is common with convection, their mesoscale effects kind of screwed up the whole surface pattern compared to what the models showed as the elevated prefrontal activity from yesterday morning turned into the main show while MS and TN were (relatively) spared.

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3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

That definitely looks like solid EF3 damage in spots. Maybe even mid to high range EF3 in spots. 

Most of the damage shown was to larger, seemingly well constructed homes. When you consider that fact it looks like solid EF3.

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Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

That was really the one thing no one thought was gonna happen yesterday. All the discussion was over whether insufficient capping would allow for a destructively interfering convective mess.

We still have much to learn, and much tweaking to do to the models.

Does the Euro have a model similar to the HRRR? I’m guessing not, because it would outpace it similar to the way the regular Euro outpaces the inferior American models.

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Just now, dan11295 said:

Most of the damage shown was to larger, seemingly well constructed homes. When you consider that fact it looks like solid EF3.

So definitely could be higher then. I'm no damage expert obviously. Just going off what I seen in the past. Miracle there hasn't been mass fatalities reported given the timing and how severe the damage is. Advanced warning time saved many lives. 

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1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Does the Euro have a model similar to the HRRR? I’m guessing not, because it would outpace it similar to the way the regular Euro outpaces the inferior American models.

No, Euro is not a hi-res CAM.

It also had its own issues with drastically over-amping yesterday/today's system within 24 hours. See discussion here:

 

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Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

No, Euro is not a hi-res CAM.

It also had its own issues with drastically over-amping yesterday/today's system within 24 hours. See discussion here:

 

I know the Euro isn’t a hi-res CAM. Just didn’t know if maybe there was a hi-res CAM produced in Europe. They’re better than us at making cars, airplanes, and I would assume weather models too.

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1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

I know the Euro isn’t a hi-res CAM. Just didn’t know if maybe there was a hi-res CAM produced in Europe. They’re better than us at making cars, airplanes, and I would assume weather models too.

If you go on weather.us, you can see some different CAMs out of Europe, not sure if any are associated with the ECMWF though. Looks like there's an ICON CAM. None of these are run outside of Europe though

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7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

If you go on weather.us, you can see some different CAMs out of Europe, not sure if any are associated with the ECMWF though. Looks like there's an ICON CAM. None of these are run outside of Europe though

So long story short, there is no model made in Europe designed to forecast severe weather outbreaks in the US.

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27 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

If you go on weather.us, you can see some different CAMs out of Europe, not sure if any are associated with the ECMWF though. Looks like there's an ICON CAM. None of these are run outside of Europe though

The ECMWF only has one modeling system, which does not include anything operating at CAM resolution. The fact that they only develop and maintain one modeling system probably gives them an advantage over the plethora of U.S. models that have to be maintained and run. At some point in the future, global models will be run routinely at CAM resolution, and it wouldn't be surprising if the ECMWF ends up leading the way there. 

While the ECMWF is the best model overall, it was one of the models that was overdone with the deepening of the surface low during the day yesterday (as referenced above). In reality, there was only gradual deepening, and winds that quickly veered across much of central/northern MS during the day never really backed around like some guidance showed. That basically shut off the potential in most of the MS portion of the High Risk, and reduced the threat in northern AL and TN since storms had little time to mature on the effective boundary before moving into those regions. 

Yesterday was a fascinating event to watch, though unfortunately one with tragic consequences. Most storms didn't do much of anything, and the ones that did produce seemed to take forever to mature. The mature supercells that did finally develop were pretty nasty and long-lived, though. Also had some long-lived left-movers further north. I think one left-mover developed in AL and ended up in OH before dissipating, producing some hail and wind damage around Nashville along the way. 

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14 minutes ago, thunderbird12 said:

The ECMWF only has one modeling system, which does not include anything operating at CAM resolution. The fact that they only develop and maintain one modeling system probably gives them an advantage over the plethora of U.S. models that have to be maintained and run. At some point in the future, global models will be run routinely at CAM resolution, and it wouldn't be surprising if the ECMWF ends up leading the way there. 

While the ECMWF is the best model overall, it was one of the models that was overdone with the deepening of the surface low during the day yesterday (as referenced above). In reality, there was only gradual deepening, and winds that quickly veered across much of central/northern MS during the day never really backed around like some guidance showed. That basically shut off the potential in most of the MS portion of the High Risk, and reduced the threat in northern AL and TN since storms had little time to mature on the effective boundary before moving into those regions. 

Yesterday was a fascinating event to watch, though unfortunately one with tragic consequences. Most storms didn't do much of anything, and the ones that did produce seemed to take forever to mature. The mature supercells that did finally develop were pretty nasty and long-lived, though. Also had some long-lived left-movers further north. I think one left-mover developed in AL and ended up in OH before dissipating, producing some hail and wind damage around Nashville along the way. 

I’m not describing yesterday as a bust at all. The residents of Newnan, GA and  Ohatchee, AL certainly wouldn’t. Though there weren’t a lot of storms, most of the ones that did form were massive and produced very long track tornadoes. I’m merely stating that the HRRR badly misplaced the locations that were most at risk. At the same time, I fully understand that we as humans have a lot to learn about how these mechanisms work and it’s humbling to see how far off we often are from what was forecast and what the models predicted.

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55 minutes ago, Witness Protection Program said:

Man, that house with the yellow-green car at :37 and 2:15.  Even the half-basement wasn't safe.

What a sinking feeling it would be to have your home crumble into a pile of toothpicks while the guy across the street lost a few shingles and some lawn chairs.  That’s what makes these storms so frightening.  It’s a lottery.

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I have learned two things from this outbreak.  One is Tony Lyza's comments about the EML being so strong it prevented cells from fully maturing over MS until they got to the AL line and eastward.  The other is that the supposed King (the Euro)  had the surface pressure for this down to 988 and 982 mb which was way too deep for what transpired.

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9 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Was wondering the same thing. I don't get it

Harkens back to Cold War days and the perception or possibly the fact that certain judges from the communist block would tend to score western athletes lower than average in world championship and Olympic events where judging matters.

In this context, I would assume the poster was indicating others may rate the tornado ef2 even though some may think it should be higher.

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