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Severe Event March 25th 2021

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1 minute ago, vman722 said:

That seemed to be what held back the NE MS cells earlier but sure isn't the case with these AL monsters. These are beyond impressive. Effective shear for both cells per mesoanalysis up to 70-73kt. 

The prime environment was definitely a little farther SE than expected. Possibly caught a few folks off-guard today, and thus fatalities. Hoping people are heeding the warnings now and we keep that number to 3.

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Long lead-time tornado warning issued....


Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
505 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  North central Chilton County in central Alabama...
  Southern Shelby County in central Alabama...

* Until 600 PM CDT.
* At 505 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
  was located over Harrisburg, or near Brent, moving east at 50 mph.


  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris 
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile 
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, 
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete 
           destruction is possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  Calera, Montevallo, Columbiana, Jemison, Wilsonville, Wilton,
  University Of Montevallo, Lay Lake, American Village, Shelby,
  Minooka Park, Beeswax Creek Park, Alabama 4H Center, Waxahatchee
  Creek, Highway 145 and CR 46, Kelley Branch, Spring Creek, Gaston
  Steam Plant and Shelby Shores.


To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.


LAT...LON 3328 8641 3327 8640 3327 8643 3324 8644
      3324 8646 3320 8646 3320 8649 3318 8650
      3312 8646 3309 8651 3307 8651 3306 8652
      3300 8652 3291 8688 3305 8688 3306 8693
      3308 8693 3309 8695 3310 8694
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 248DEG 45KT 3290 8720 


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2 hours ago, Moderately Unstable said:


Based on the current obs and the earlier modeling I tend to agree with that assessment. As they continue to race NE the downstream environment is highly unstable . They should ingest increasing amounts of SRH so if they stay fairly discrete which seems a reasonable assumption for several reasons, they both do have potential. They're about where you'd expect to see initiation for a cell that was going to take advantage of the environment today and the downstream progs for sig helicity tracks on some of the recent CAMs would, if propagating backward, initiate those cells about in that area. I'll leave it there.

Well, that verified. 

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