Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Based on what guidance? Mixing issues at PYM with 70 knot winds no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 A 12 inch blizzard was what you called for earlier today hahaha no i didn't at all. That's what I'm excited for but the odds of it happening are low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 06z NAM was OTS I personally don't think it would have been as bad as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Based on what guidance? I've developed a model that can predict the weather based off of rays mood. Says straight out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 THe differences look rather small I think. This is definitely stronger with the northern stream energy. Would this help pull the heavier precip more NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM is going to be ugly for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 man...HPC just chucking weenies all over their offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willv28 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I've already been lectured about that exact point. I honestly don't see the problem refreshing the 12z nam run in between my kids opening presents! That's what makes iPads useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think the NAM is too little too late, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM is going to be ugly for us Stll positive looks like it would be wide right unless its a late hooker......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM is going to be ugly for us Getting that feeling here too but then again I also don't put too much reliance in it beyond 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Would this help pull the heavier precip more NW? I honestly don't know I think this looks like the northern stream may swallow up the southern stream too early which I don't think would be too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At least Wiz thinks it looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Are we really extrapolating the NAM? And trusting it at 60 or plus hours? Let's not become the main thread here. It'll come around in due time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hideous portrayal on the nam. Three distinct parcels of energy separated by many miles. Not a good sign when the wettest model we have looks like poop thru 48 downstairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Getting that feeling here too but then again I also don't put too much reliance in it beyond 48 hours. Yeah it's the NAM but it definitely shows what can go wrong. The trough axis is just too far east so it closes off too east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Are we really extrapolating the NAM? And trusting it at 60 or plus hours? Let's not become the main thread here. It'll come around in due time. Well the NAM is an unmitigated disaster. Easy to see that with the 48 hour panel. Don't need much creativity to extrapolate that trainwreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 3-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Are we really extrapolating the NAM? And trusting it at 60 or plus hours? Let's not become the main thread here. It'll come around in due time. With this pass miss the Ec and gfs took turns telling us it was a hit. At this range the nam had a different setup but indicated a good hit when everything else sucked. It ended up being very close to the nam which was the most aggressive. Let's not say it's the nam plus 48, it's done at least as well as the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hideous portrayal on the nam. Three distinct parcels of energy separated by many miles. Not a good sign when the wettest model we have looks like poop thru 48 downstairs You're just as bad as Ray at times. AHHHHHHH!!!!!! We're all doomed, one model is a whiff. Seriously? Until the GFS, Euro, and it's associated ensm. go bye-bye, we're all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well the NAM is an unmitigated disaster. Easy to see that with the 48 hour panel. Don't need much creativity to extrapolate that trainwreck. We're laughing at work about it. That's horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 3-8" And partly cloudy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like it's starting to dig a bit more with the northern stream with continues to be more potent on this run, a bit faster and a bit further SE with the southern s/w too at 54 HR. Ridge axis also looks to have tilted back a bit out west. That's one of the trends I'm going to be rooting for in the upcoming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 3-8" Ray showing some cautious optimism FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM outside of range... the weenie suicides in the main thread are shameful, isn't that what normally earns the 5 post bans? Why is it that every 6 hours the NAM shows something crazy and people go completely nuts before waiting for the more accurate mid-range models to give their .02? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Congrats Bermuda........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You're just as bad as Ray at times. AHHHHHHH!!!!!! We're all doomed, one model is a whiff. Seriously? Until the GFS, Euro, and it's associated ensm. go bye-bye, we're all good. Take a temper tantrum, but the fact of the matter is that the only time I have been terribly off over the course of the past year was with regard to that last system; I played a hunch and was far too aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We're laughing at work about it. That's horrible. yeah... normally i'd just toss it because it's the NAM... but it's so hideous and so terrible I have a sort of bad feeling about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yup. Seeing a near triple phaser isn't common either. lol Whatever we see it's going to be interesting. I saw you mention that yesterday... I thought we couldn't have one this winter because of the lack of the jet or something? (I think Will mentioned that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 LOL Not a great start to your thread Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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