Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,967
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WeatherQuadCore
    Newest Member
    WeatherQuadCore
    Joined

2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
 Share

Recommended Posts

18 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Friday is kinda sneaky but I see you.:ph34r:

All the ingredients to the potential for widespread moderate to
heavy rain and isolated severe thunderstorms on Friday as a cold
front slides southeast across central Indiana Friday and Friday
evening courtesy of an approaching sharp upper trough and surface
high pressure over the Rockies and High Plains.

Modest to moderate low level 35 knot jet pointing in from western
Kentucky will bring in precipitable water amounts to the 99th
percentile for this time of year. This will combine with strong deep
layer shear of over 50 knots and low level shear near 50 knots to
support the potential of isolated damaging winds despite only weak
instability. 115 plus knot upper level jet streak lifting northeast
around the base of the trough over northwestern Indiana or
northeastern Illinois late Friday supports moderate to heavy rain.
Thus, 90 plus percent PoPs look good for Friday with rain moving
east into Ohio overnight Friday night and Saturday morning. Look for
rainfall of half an inch to over an inch over most or all locations
Friday and Friday night.
  • Like 1
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Already seeing a few checkmarks starting to be ticked off in terms of a fall severe wx potential early next week across recent guidance. Not sure how far north/east it will extend, but it seems there could be a chance for an anomalously large warm sector to exist ahead of whatever ejects eastward from a developing longwave trough in the west. Obviously a lot that could go wrong as with any 8+ day prog, but seeing that moisture available along with a very strong Pacific jet streak making landfall has my eyebrows perked up a bit.

  • Like 6
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Or if you are going to post something at least post why and multiple progression maps, just a random zomg map says nothing.

I will say this, Not everyone is on the same level. I am still learning and come to these boards to learn and even debate different view points.  Please take into consideration when new comers come and post

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I will say this, Not everyone is on the same level. I am still learning and come to these boards to learn and even debate different view points.  Please take into consideration when new comers come and post

Learning people do much better listening instead of just randomly shouting which is what your one map did. I have no idea if there is instability or anything associated with that. All these things matter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Learning people do much better listening instead of just randomly shouting which is what your one map did. I have no idea if there is instability or anything associated with that. All these things matter.

 

Or, maybe, since you're a meteorologist, you could make the assumption that since he responded to a post about a PDS tor sounding there's probably some instability there and he just shared a map of a parameter he found to be most impressive. Posting said map isn't "shouting", its posting weather related information on a weather forum. 

The weather regionally is pretty boring right now and @StormfanaticInd is single handedly keeping some of these threads going, you red tags e bullying everything he posts instead of educating him and the rest of us noobs on what you disagree with doesn't make you cool, it makes you a douche bag. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

 

Or, maybe, since you're a meteorologist, you could make the assumption that since he responded to a post about a PDS tor sounding there's probably some instability there and he just shared a map of a parameter he found to be most impressive. Posting said map isn't "shouting", its posting weather related information on a weather forum. 

The weather regionally is pretty boring right now and @StormfanaticInd is single handedly keeping some of these threads going, you red tags e bullying everything he posts instead of educating him and the rest of us noobs on what you disagree with doesn't make you cool, it makes you a douche bag. 

Right, I am the problem. You haven't posted but a couple times in several months, I don't think you understand the dynamic of this subforum. It really isn't hard to let stuff naturally progress in threads instead of just randomly posting stuff with no commentary. I could post a crazy map every 6 hours but that would be meaningless especially since the models change constantly. Which is why I suggested he listen more, I know everyone doesn't have the same background here but you have many long time posters who do just fine without the background a met may have. This wouldn't even be a thing if he didn't just keep doing it after suggesting to post less nonsense that is 8+ days out. Stuff that far out has minimal verification skills to it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Right, I am the problem. You haven't posted but a couple times in several months, I don't think you understand the dynamic of this subforum. It really isn't hard to let stuff naturally progress in threads instead of just randomly posting stuff with no commentary. I could post a crazy map every 6 hours but that would be meaningless especially since the models change constantly. Which is why I suggested he listen more, I know everyone doesn't have the same background here but you have many long time posters who do just fine without the background a met may have. This wouldn't even be a thing if he didn't just keep doing it after suggesting to post less nonsense that is 8+ days out. Stuff that far out has minimal verification skills to it.

You have an issue with him doing that but not the original post he responded to?

 

ETA: I don't post very much because I would rather "listen more". But I have been a member of this forum for over a decade under one username or another and read basically every post on every thread for the sub forums I am interested in. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Gee, thanks. Then I'll stop posting and let this place become a ghost town.

Stebo isn’t exactly known for being tactful. It’s been quiet around here and even if it’s only a single map, it’s at least something to keep this thread alive. It’s not as though we’re in Storm Mode where posts have to live up to a higher level of quality and scrutiny. What you posted was a curiosity at worst and a “oh, maybe we ought to keep an eye out on this time period” at best. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm pro letting people post stuff and educating them on what it means or encouraging a use of ensemble means vs. a single run of an model.   I agree that 192 hour model graphics aren't useful on their own but it can't hurt to teach people, no matter which poster it is.   I'd rather turn the weenies into knowledgeable weenies.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, madwx said:

I'm pro letting people post stuff and educating them on what it means or encouraging a use of ensemble means vs. a single run of an model.   I agree that 192 hour model graphics aren't useful on their own but it can't hurt to teach people, no matter which poster it is.   I'd rather turn the weenies into knowledgeable weenies.  

This is how I feel to be honest, I don't mind long range discussion at all if it is in a post using ensembles and actually discussing the stuff.

 

8 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

Stebo isn’t exactly known for being tactful. It’s been quiet around here and even if it’s only a single map, it’s at least something to keep this thread alive. It’s not as though we’re in Storm Mode where posts have to live up to a higher level of quality and scrutiny. What you posted was a curiosity at worst and a “oh, maybe we ought to keep an eye out on this time period” at best. 

Its a generality, and more so to the person who posted the map to be honest. It doesn't hurt to actually post a bit of discussion as to why you are posting a day 8-9 map. We have done this forever around here regardless of my tactfulness.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not even gonna lie, Stebo is fairly tactful in my book so long as he doesn't think you're a total COC. Imo he handled this situation pretty well; definitely better than others have recently. Maybe we should make a thread specifically for low-quality posts. Maybe it could be the long-buried banter thread

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/19/2021 at 10:59 AM, Stebo said:

This is how I feel to be honest, I don't mind long range discussion at all if it is in a post using ensembles and actually discussing the stuff.

 

Its a generality, and more so to the person who posted the map to be honest. It doesn't hurt to actually post a bit of discussion as to why you are posting a day 8-9 map. We have done this forever around here regardless of my tactfulness.

What a hypocrite D39F2291-36BA-46FF-BF1C-B5971CDA516D.thumb.jpeg.53baf0dab8f61914087851f4dd9b7e49.jpeg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...