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2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


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Kind of a blind wait and see situation once again today, similar to Tues/Wed...

CAMS are of no help, as most wanted to turn the ND/SD MCS into a ranging derecho today, and didn’t really have the MCS further south across NE/IA. The HRRR did have the southern complex, but has been in insta-kill mode with it, and took it NE into MN. So all guidance is pretty much a toss.

As for what’s going on currently, the IA MCS is obviously of focus, and it will be interesting to see if it survives the next 3 hours or so. The environment that it’s in isn’t terrible, but it’s also not the best either (Low shear/modest instability/good moisture/good lapse rates). If it survives, the expected environment for this afternoon across E IA/S WI/N-C IL won’t be really all that better than what it’s currently in this morning.

Then you have the ND/SD MCS, which probably won’t turn into a raging derecho as CAMS advertised. It continues to push towards MN, where the environment overall is even worse than what the IA MCS is in currently. Add in the potential issues that will arise if the IA MCS sustains...


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14 hours ago, vortex said:

Pic of severe warned storm to my south east this evening in Indiana.  
 

 

A933473A-2019-4CA3-BEB1-DBA606C54DA5.jpeg

Did you snap this looking north west ? Because I swear to god I saw this looking south east yesterday around 530pm 

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MKX's late morning AFD update was good for an LOL:

Quote
A few early thoughts as to how things may evolve this afternoon
into tonight.

Recent and current CAM performance continues to be more in the
camp of for entertainment purposes only. Mode is being handled
fairly well, but for specifics like timing, location and intensity
the struggle is real. Case in point is the ongoing convection
over Iowa. Recent model runs at least are starting to acknowledge
its presence, while previous runs failed to produce a signal. So,
to the observations!

 

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SPC today...

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   A highly unconditional (low probability) scenario
   exists for a focused area of tornado/wind potential based on model
   guidance of supercell activity during the afternoon undergoing a
   transition to embedded HP and MCS evolution.  However, confidence in
   any one of a multitude of possible scenarios is low at this time.

LOL summer.

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Tornado watch for east central MN into NW WI until 4pm.  West central MN seeing heavy weather with winds up to 70 and 1.25" hail. Radar rotation just WNW of St. Cloud invoked a tornado warning. Looks like a squirrely few hours coming up just south of me.

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7 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Tornado watch for east central MN into NW WI until 4pm.  West central MN seeing heavy weather with winds up to 70 and 1.25" hail. Radar rotation just WNW of St. Cloud invoked a tornado warning. Looks like a squirrely few hours coming up just south of me.

Really hoping you guys get a good soaking rain event to snuff out the fires. 

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26 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said:

Tuesday Sep 07 has potential. Still some variability between models but my guess is someone in the region will have good shear and cape.

September is an odd time for severe weather events in this region, but with the way August overachieved compared to May and June I suppose anything is possible at this point. Hell just within the last five years we've had tornado outbreaks in December and February.

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GRR Discussion:

Quote
Then we have the Tuesday event. We have a significant risk for
strong to severe storms late in the day just ahead of the surface
cold front. This system through will have a stronger surface
system with it and so we will not only have the threat of strong
thunderstorms but the surface winds, outside of thunderstorms
could be strong enough to cause power outages since the trees all
still have leaves on them yet. Winds could gust to near 40 mph at
times during the mid to late afternoon just from the pressure
gradient with the system itself.

The front is moving into an area with 40 to 50 knots of deep layer
shear and mixed layer capes over 2000 j/kg. There model sounding
show fat cape to near 200 mb (EL). The storms will be moving
southeast around 40 knots and have DCAPES near 800 j/kg. So, while
there will be heavy rain with these storms, it will be brief due
to the speed of the storms. So I do not see flooding as a big
threat.

Once the front is through we get into some really chilly air for a
few days. We could have lake enhanced rain showers Wednesday with
some water spouts and cold air funnels. Yes, the air will be that
cold.

 

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