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Spring/Summer 2021 Banter/Complaint Thread


madwx
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9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Detroits warmest:

Jan- 1932

Feb- 1882

Mar- 2012

Apr- 1955

May- 1991

Jun- 1933

Jul- 2011

Aug- 1995

Sept- 1881

Oct- 1963

Nov- 1931

Dec- 2015

Detroit has its own microclimate going on. That's why you're always so adament about global warming being fake news. Whens the last time Detroit set a top 10 coldest year? 

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54 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

It’s my understanding that observations were taken at a few different locations, mostly in or near the city (the airport is nearly 20 miles west). Personally, I only compare apples to apples when looking at temperature data (1948-present), because there are all sorts of variables that could influence whether or not data from the 1880s at a different location could be compared to data from the 2020s at the current location.

As for Harrisburg, it seems to me that if a 30 year weighted average went up by 2 degrees by taking and replacing 1/3 of the data, it would stand to reason that the replaced data was 6 degrees lower than the new data. For example: suppose the averages for the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s were all 70 degrees. 70+70+70 = 210 / 3 = 70. To get that average to 72, we would need the 210 to become 216, so 70+70+76 = 216 / 3 = 72. Am I missing something?

Regardless, even if the temperatures for a particular month somewhere were 3.5 degrees warmer (and not 6) than they were just 30 degrees earlier, it would and should set off major alarm bells.

There are lots of variables that go into everything.  I can pretty much guarantee you that Pittsburgh's airport has a lot more concrete now than it did in 1948. Things like moving temperature sensors, UHI, etc.

 

I am not sure where you are getting that Harrisburg went up 2°?  Have a link? While Harrisburg did go up more than cities in our sub it looks like 0.6° per xmacis, not 2°.

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1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

There are lots of variables that go into everything.  I can pretty much guarantee you that Pittsburgh's airport has a lot more concrete now than it did in 1948. Things like moving temperature sensors, UHI, etc.

 

I am not sure where you are getting that Harrisburg went up 2°?  Have a link? While Harrisburg did go up more than cities in our sub it looks like 0.6° per xmacis, not 2°.

BB593145-7126-4BBB-8596-BA461AD02F4B.jpeg.2026327119cec8f55725ddc1623fa27a.jpegAnnual +0.6, September +2.0. 
I’m mostly talking about September, which for many of us is the month that’s been the most f***ed by AGW. 
 

UHI? Maybe some effect, but Pittsburgh’s airport is 20 miles away from the city (upwind, usually, at that), and at a higher elevation by several hundred feet. 

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12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Detroit has its own microclimate going on. That's why you're always so adament about global warming being fake news. Whens the last time Detroit set a top 10 coldest year? 

When did I say anything about fake news? correcting misinformation and exaggerations does not mean I don't believe in CC. And Detroit does NOT have a microclimate going on lol. Look up most cities in the Midwest and their all time warmest of each month is scattered around from the 1880s to 2010s.

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13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Detroit has its own microclimate going on. That's why you're always so adament about global warming being fake news. Whens the last time Detroit set a top 10 coldest year? 

lol, I don't recall michsnowfreak posting denier stuff.  I don't think he doubts the overall warming across the globe, but he is obviously very focused on what is happening in the Detroit area.

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6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

BB593145-7126-4BBB-8596-BA461AD02F4B.jpeg.2026327119cec8f55725ddc1623fa27a.jpegAnnual +0.6, September +2.0. 
I’m mostly talking about September, which for many of us is the month that’s been the most f***ed by AGW. 
 

UHI? Maybe some effect, but Pittsburgh’s airport is 20 miles away from the city (upwind, usually, at that), and at a higher elevation by several hundred feet. 

oops sorry i thought you meant 2.0 annual. 

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I don't think this is entirely accurate everywhere, but posting it more to show how much of the CONUS warmed with the new averages.  Somebody did stay steady or cool off though -- the northern Plains.

734550794_NormalsTempDiff.thumb.png.467166e4213b39f8eee4afb3cecfd17d.png

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Just now, Hoosier said:

I don't think this is entirely accurate everywhere, but posting it more to show how much of the CONUS warmed with the new averages.  Somebody did stay steady or cool off though -- the northern Plains.

734550794_NormalsTempDiff.thumb.png.467166e4213b39f8eee4afb3cecfd17d.png

Indeed, 73 people in this country got to see their normal temperatures go down.

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4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

When did I say anything about fake news? correcting misinformation and exaggerations does not mean I don't believe in CC. And Detroit does NOT have a microclimate going on lol. Look up most cities in the Midwest and their all time warmest of each month is scattered around from the 1880s to 2010s.

My Bad. I thought you didn't think it was happening across the great lakes, only globally. 

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

lol, I don't recall michsnowfreak posting denier stuff.  I don't think he doubts the overall warming across the globe, but he is obviously very focused on what is happening in the Detroit area.

Thank you lol and see above. I have no problem with global warming, I don't get involved in those discussions much because it seems to be a battle of the far right & the far left which leads to exaggerations on both ends. I guess correcting misinformation when I see it means I don't believe in climate change.

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8 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Indeed, 73 people in this country got to see their normal temperatures go down.

Hey now.  My grandma hailed from North Dakota, and I can tell you that her town by itself had 50 people.  

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13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My Bad. I thought you didn't think it was happening across the great lakes, only globally. 

 What I think is cool is that as someone who actually follows the weather in weather patterns and trends I can actually see the difference in certain things. Not talking about some kneejerk reaction to an unusual spring warm spell or some freak October or may snowstorm. talking about overall. And pretty much the trends in local climate are something I notice. I literally argued some bullshit article saying the winters were warming faster than summers in the Great Lakes and I said it was the complete opposite. The most notable trend here is that summer temperatures are rising and mins are increasing 2 to 3 times as much as the maxes in summer. This is why heatwaves of the dustbowl remain untouched but avg temps made the 10s the hottest summers on record.

 

The cooling off of April and November and the heating up of May-Sept basically give the illusion that both winter and summer are "longer" and fall/spring are shrinking into near oblivion. There are very few cool summer nights anymore from late June to late Aug. The mugginess is increasing. Winter is making a habit of popping in unusually early and late but choosing a hiatus at some point during prime time. That Mother Nature is blowing her snowy load in February is getting to the point of as sure as lions not winning the superbowl. I could.go on.

 

But one of my favorite things about GW/CC in a northern climate? There's more juice in the atmosphere. We are getting bigger snowstorms which leads to some great packs at times. Its worth a little extra summer humidity ;)

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3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 What I think is cool is that as someone who actually follows the weather in weather patterns and trends I can actually see the difference in certain things. Not talking about some kneejerk reaction to an unusual spring warm spell or some freak October or may snowstorm. talking about overall. And pretty much the trends in local climate are something I notice. I literally argued some bullshit article saying the winters were warming faster than summers in the Great Lakes and I said it was the complete opposite. The most notable trend here is that summer temperatures are rising and mins are increasing 2 to 3 times as much as the maxes in summer. This is why heatwaves of the dustbowl remain untouched but avg temps made the 10s the hottest summers on record.

 

The cooling off of April and November and the heating up of May-Sept basically give the illusion that both winter and summer are "longer" and fall/spring are shrinking into near oblivion. There are very few cool summer nights anymore from late June to late Aug. The mugginess is increasing. Winter is making a habit of popping in unusually early and late but choosing a hiatus at some point during prime time. That Mother Nature is blowing her snowy load in February is getting to the point of as sure as lions not winning the superbowl. I could.go on.

 

But one of my favorite things about GW/CC in a northern climate? There's more juice in the atmosphere. We are getting bigger snowstorms which leads to some great packs at times. Its worth a little extra summer humidity ;)

I kind of like it too, Lake Erie rarely freezes anymore more lake effect! I'm also a seasons in seasons guy, so I love the heat/humidity in the summer/fall. 

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I kind of like it too, Lake Erie rarely freezes anymore more lake effect! 

Increasing cloudiness in the Winter time keeping Winter mins up also really helps that less freezing. That's another interesting trend locally, Winter mins are increasing yet the number of below 0 days is staying pretty constant and in fact is greater than it was during the milder winters of the early to mid 20th century...and the number of mins below 10 below is actually slightly going up.  That is why weather is so fascinating, there are so many aspects beyond the means.

 

ot, how far you from Buffalo airport? As a climate buff who loves looking at old data locally it would probably drive me crazy to look at old data for Buffalo but not really know what was happening in my present day backyard at the time since les can be isolated.  You have posted pictures were getting 1 or 2' of snow in Buffalo reports like 5" lol.

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3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Increasing cloudiness in the Winter time keeping Winter mins up also really helps that less freezing. That's another interesting trend locally, Winter mins are increasing yet the number of below 0 days is staying pretty constant and in fact is greater than it was during the milder winters of the early to mid 20th century...and the number of mins below 10 below is actually slightly going up.  That is why weather is so fascinating, there are so many aspects beyond the means.

 

ot, how far you from Buffalo airport? As a climate buff who loves looking at old data locally it would probably drive me crazy to look at old data for Buffalo but not really know what was happening in my present day backyard at the time since les can be isolated. 

About 20 miles. Before 1940 Buffalo recorded their temps/snow literally on the water. They moved the recording to the airport in 1940. 

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I don’t think there’s much doubt that the higher dewpoints are what’s causing the rise in summer averages. It’s causing both much warmer lows and less extreme highs. I know we’ve had people talk about crops playing a role and that might be true but I don’t think that’s the main reason. Overall moisture really is up globally. With the oceans being warmer I wonder if that doesn’t just naturally put more moisture into the atmosphere. This would also help keep the Arctic warmer during the winter which is obviously happening. You never know what the planet will throw at you next. Viruses, volcanic eruptions, etc. lol  That’s what makes it so interesting.

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31 minutes ago, roardog said:

I don’t think there’s much doubt that the higher dewpoints are what’s causing the rise in summer averages. It’s causing both much warmer lows and less extreme highs. I know we’ve had people talk about crops playing a role and that might be true but I don’t think that’s the main reason. Overall moisture really is up globally. With the oceans being warmer I wonder if that doesn’t just naturally put more moisture into the atmosphere. This would also help keep the Arctic warmer during the winter which is obviously happening. You never know what the planet will throw at you next. Viruses, volcanic eruptions, etc. lol  That’s what makes it so interesting.

That is a good point.  I was just looking at some dewpoint plot trends and you see an overall rising trend even in areas far removed from the corn belt such as NYC and Boston. 

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2 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Another forgettable spring in an ongoing string of them

If the weekend system doesn't produce a lot of rain here, I may shift into full unapologetic drought rooting mode.  It's all we've got at this point.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

If the weekend system doesn't produce a lot of rain here, I may shift into full unapologetic drought rooting mode.  It's all we've got at this point.

It's more like a Port Angeles Washington style "drought" here.  Gets rain-shadowed by the Olympic Mountains, but is still next to the Puget Sound so it gets the annoying stratus gloom and mist, despite being "dry" in terms of what accumulates in the bucket.  Below normal precip, but only due to lack of any HEAVY rain.  Worst of all possible boring worlds.

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10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Increasing cloudiness in the Winter time keeping Winter mins up also really helps that less freezing. That's another interesting trend locally, Winter mins are increasing yet the number of below 0 days is staying pretty constant and in fact is greater than it was during the milder winters of the early to mid 20th century...and the number of mins below 10 below is actually slightly going up.  That is why weather is so fascinating, there are so many aspects beyond the means.

 

ot, how far you from Buffalo airport? As a climate buff who loves looking at old data locally it would probably drive me crazy to look at old data for Buffalo but not really know what was happening in my present day backyard at the time since les can be isolated.  You have posted pictures were getting 1 or 2' of snow in Buffalo reports like 5" lol.

You can look back until 1994 for lake effect snow events that BUF NWS started keeping track of.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2020-2021&event=A

Before 1994 we actually have a book of all the snowstorms that have ever hit WNY, its my favorite book. There have been some absolutely insane storms here. There have been quite a few 50"+ lake effect storms since the turn of the century.

Here it is on Ebay

https://www.ebay.com/itm/The-Buffalo-Blizzard-Book-200-Years-of-Buffalo-Snowstorms-Now-Just-9-95-/280806379377

We also have this from BUF NWS, every weather event to ever hit the area

https://www.weather.gov/buf/wxhis.html

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7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

June will be rockin'

A rockin' June for me is like a rockin' February (or March) for @beavis1729 and other winter weenies. It's better than nothing (unless you're rooting for a futility record by that point), but it's tough to fully enjoy because you know the season is almost over before it really began when you waste two months of peak climo for your preferred type of weather.

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7 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Starting to think it never actually "warms up" in the Midwest. Going to be heading back into fall before we know it.

Summer always comes. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that IND, DTW, ORD, PIT, CLE, BUF, MSN, MKE, and DSM (am I missing anyone that posts in here?) will all exceed their long term averages for 90 degree days this summer. We’ll see.

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