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March 2021

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3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

peak of the next arctic blast mar 15 - 16. 850 temps -15c to -18c .  Could be tough to crack 40  next tue.

Euro has some snow for the area next week

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the first thing I thought about when seeing the ao forecast to plus 5sd was 70 degrees...it looks like it will happen especially away from the coast...

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Morning thoughts...

On this date in 1888, rain began to fall in New York City. The temperature peaked at 42°, which was cool for the season but not exceptionally cold. Afterward, the temperature gradually descended into the lower 30s as an increasingly cold rain picked up in intensity. Overnight, the temperature declined more rapidly and a heavy rain turned into a howling blizzard that would carve its place into both the weather record books and New York City’s larger history.

Today will be the almost complete opposite. Morning fog, mist, and clouds will lift. The afternoon will become partly to mostly sunny. In many parts of the region, the thermometer will soar to its highest levels so far this year.  Long Island and the south shore of Connecticut could be exceptions. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 60s in much of the region. Upper 50s are likely on Long Island and Connecticut’s south shore. Some parts of the region, including Philadelphia, will likely see the temperature push into the lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 65°

Newark: 68°

Philadelphia: 72°

Tomorrow will be another unseasonably warm day. Cooler weather will likely return for the weekend. The March 16-19 period could offer a period of opportunity for at least some snow in parts of the region.

Out west, a major to perhaps historic snowstorm appears likely in parts of the Rockies, including Casper, Cheyenne, and possibly Denver from late Friday into Monday. Cheyenne could challenge some of its March snowfall records:

March Records:

Daily: 15.9”, March 18, 2003; 2-Day: 17.2”, March 17-18, 2003; 3-Day: 18.9”, March 5-7, 1990

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16 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Once they tweeted and agreed with a Colin tweet they lost all respect for themselves 

If you look on their site, they all look to be about 12 years old minus one person, lol

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17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has some snow for the area next week

Swath of what would definitely be advisory-level snows if it were to play out pound for pound

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Swath of what would definitely be advisory-level snows if it were to play out pound for pound
Thank God even if it did happen that Sept 30 sun angle will make short work of it. Ready for spring here

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, tek1972 said:

Thank God even if it did happen that Sept 30 sun angle will make short work of it. Ready for spring here emoji4.png

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
 

EC implies that temperatures would then go up to at least 40 degrees for most the next day so March sun = vaporizes the snow by the middle of the day 

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16 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Swath of what would definitely be advisory-level snows if it were to play out pound for pound

For your area yes

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Today's preliminary value of the AO was +5.135. On February 11, it was -5.254. The previous highest AO within 30 days of a -5.000 or below figure was +3.351 on April 21, 2013. 30 days earlier on March 22, the AO was -5.240.

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18 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

EC implies that temperatures would then go up to at least 40 degrees for most the next day so March sun = vaporizes the snow by the middle of the day 

Mid March and on snows rarely hang around for more than a day

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Mid March and on snows rarely hang around for more than a day

Once you get to 3/15, it’s pretty much over south of New England minus a highly anomalous event, i.e. March, 2018, March,1993. You have sun angle, length of day and climo all working against you from that point on 

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NWS saying 64, TWC saying 55. :wacko2:
 

Models tend to treat Long Island as if it’s a buoy in the Atlantic so I trust the NWS here, the only time Long Island doesn’t keep pace with NYC/NJ is when it’s socked in with clouds/fog.

It’s already 50 under cloudy skies, even if we somehow managed to stay under cloudy skies the whole day we’d likely still go beyond 55.

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NWS saying 64, TWC saying 55. :wacko2:
 
Models tend to treat Long Island as if it’s a buoy in the Atlantic so I trust the NWS here, the only time Long Island doesn’t keep pace with NYC/NJ is when it’s socked in with clouds/fog.
Isn't the wind SW today though?
Usually any southerly component in March will prevent temps from climbing out of the 50s.
I hope you are correct though!

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

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Just now, tek1972 said:

Isn't the wind SW today though?
Usually any southerly component in March will prevent temps from climbing out of the 50s.
I hope you are correct though!

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
 

We’ll see, I think we’ll be fine (knock on wood).

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20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once you get to 3/15, it’s pretty much over south of New England minus a highly anomalous event, i.e. March, 2018, March,1993. You have sun angle, length of day and climo all working against you from that point on 

I give it till 3/21. The 3rd week of March has a surprising amount of snow events. 

March averages more snow than December for the NYC metro especially in the past 10 years. 

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33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today's preliminary value of the AO was +5.135. On February 11, it was -5.254. The previous highest AO within 30 days of a -5.000 or below figure was +3.351 on April 21, 2013. 30 days earlier on March 22, the AO was -5.240.

AO chart looks ridiculous and blows previous records away. In addition the AO may plunge into the negatives a few days after being near +6. 

Insane volatility. 

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34 minutes ago, Cfa said:

NWS saying 64, TWC saying 55. :wacko2:
 

Models tend to treat Long Island as if it’s a buoy in the Atlantic so I trust the NWS here, the only time Long Island doesn’t keep pace with NYC/NJ is when it’s socked in with clouds/fog.

It’s already 50 under cloudy skies, even if we somehow managed to stay under cloudy skies the whole day we’d likely still go beyond 55.

On the south shore beaches anyway I don’t expect it to get much above 50 with due south winds. If winds are more SW it could be warmer. I don’t expect widespread 60s east of the city with the onshore flow. Hopefully I’m wrong. 

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15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

AO chart looks ridiculous and blows previous records away. In addition the AO may plunge into the negatives a few days after being near +6. 

Insane volatility. 

Not stable at all

20210311_092920.jpg

20210311_092911.jpg

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This paper back in 2009 was right on the money. We can expand this to the extreme AO volatility. The AO has been swinging from one extreme to another.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090113101200.htm

Swings In North Atlantic Oscillation Variability Linked To Climate Warming

 
January 14, 2009
 

The research team found the variability of the NAO decade-to-decade (multi-decadal scale) has been larger, swinging more wildly, during the late twentieth century than in the early 1800s, suggesting that variability is linked to the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere. This confirms variability previously reported in past terrestrial reconstructions.

“When the Industrial Revolution begins and atmospheric temperature becomes warmer, the NAO takes on a much stronger pattern in longer-term behavior,” said Goodkin. “That was suspected before in the instrumental records, but this is the first time it has been documented in records from both the ocean and the atmosphere.”

 
As temperatures get warmer, there’s potential for more violent swings of the NAO — the phases becoming even more positive and even more negative,” Hughen added. “If the NAO locks more into these patterns, intense storms will become more intense and droughts will become more severe.”
 
EDB4615F-4B4E-4B93-8A98-BE40DCB133F8.gif.ecbc839499f6ad8b2f452996a4818e41.gif
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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

AO chart looks ridiculous and blows previous records away. In addition the AO may plunge into the negatives a few days after being near +6. 

Insane volatility. 

Record AO Declines:

7 days or less: -6.831, January 5-12, 1977 (from +1.029 to -5.802)
6 days or less: -6.522, November 8-14, 1959 (from +1.690 to -4.832)
5 days or less (4-day period): -6.457, January 20-24, 1976 (from +3.195 to -3.262)
3 days or less: -5.142, January 20-23, 1976 (from +3.195 to -1.947)
2 days or less: -3.841, December 13-15, 1972 (from +3.007 to -0.834)
1 day: -2.695, June 30-July 1, 1964 (from +2.988 to +0.293)

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fwiw: modeling... a few times in the past 4 days, has been trying for back-backs snows in the forum (15-16, 18-19).  I know a lot of folks are down on 15-16, but just as the 18-19 (not threaded yet), think it good to check ENS and 500MB pattern.  -NAO is when best to go for snow (thats the 16th with a possible last gasp snow the 19th as the NAO starts rising?).  So, on 15-16... and a possible future threaded 18-19 (that work will probably preclude being able to follow up very much-except evening),  ENS trends are helpful.  For the 15-16 event... watch the confluence zone and track of primary vort max. There will be pretty strong 850 inflow ahead of the 500MB vort, and into the confluence zone.  and on 18-19... i think that's purely ensemble suggestive at this point. I think it will deserve a thread either late today or tomorrow, that one also probably a wait and see.  Also,  I check the CFS every cycle.  These events, especially the 19th, were at one time modeled by the CFS

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Looks like it’s heating up a little more than I thought near the coast. EWR should hit 70 easily. If you want winter, Cheyenne WY would be an awesome place to book a flight. 30-36” snow expected there this weekend. Yikes. 

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The 70° at Newark is close to the record.

Newark/Liberty MOSUNNY   70  36  28 SW12   

 

Data for March 11 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
Precipitation 
Snowfall 
Snow Depth 
1977-03-11 71 45 0.00 0.0 0
1967-03-11 70 44 0.01 0.0 0
2016-03-11 69 48 0.03 0.0 0
1990-03-11 68 44 0.04 0.0 0
2014-03-11 67 38 0.00 0.0 0
1955-03-11 67 48 T 0.0 0
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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like it’s heating up a little more than I thought near the coast. EWR should hit 70 easily. If you want winter, Cheyenne WY would be an awesome place to book a flight. 30-36” snow expected there this weekend. Yikes. 

that would be historic there.   And by alot!

GFS spits out 90 inches for northern CO/southern WY

gfs_asnow_scus_22.png

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