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Spring 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion


madwx
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On 5/12/2021 at 8:35 PM, roardog said:

If we are going to do heat then give me ‘95 over ‘88. Unless you’re looking for an extreme air temperature then you should want to take the humid summer of ‘95 to at least get a derecho or two.

 I was only 5 but I actually remember 1988 a little bit. That year clearly reigns supreme for extreme heat. I honestly do not know how they survived the 1930s to 50s with much less air conditioning and so much extreme heat

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I was only 5 but I actually remember 1988 a little bit. That year clearly reigns supreme for extreme heat. I honestly do not know how they survived the 1930s to 50s with much less air conditioning and so much extreme heat

No A.C. in my childhood home at that time. We slept in the basement quite often that miserable summer.

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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I was only 5 but I actually remember 1988 a little bit. That year clearly reigns supreme for extreme heat. I honestly do not know how they survived the 1930s to 50s with much less air conditioning and so much extreme heat

It’s kind of funny how we can remember certain events from a young age. I can remember the warm Christmas of 1982 even though I was only 4. Although I can’t remember specifics, I can remember it because it was the main topic of conversation that day. 

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2 hours ago, Jonger said:

No A.C. in my childhood home at that time. We slept in the basement quite often that miserable summer.

I don't remember being affected by the heat as a child.  I was skinny and didn't really sweat.  I got bigger after puberty, and only then started not liking heat.

I remember the basement flooding in September the same year, but I don't remember the heat so much.  September was extremely wet for some reason that year.  I think it was hurricane remnants tracking through.

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7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I think this one won't be a false start and that we might have an active 2 week period for the country starting this weekend.

Good instability will try to nose northeast starting Tuesday, provided upstream convection doesn’t eat it all up.  

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

I think this one won't be a false start and that we might have an active 2 week period for the country starting this weekend.

It is an outrage to have active weather in the US in the spring.

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On 5/21/2021 at 2:13 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

Does severe weather season even exist in the O.V. anymore?

 

You'll at least get storms with the Thursday system.  Here is hopeless.  Always garbage timing and/or lake shadowing.

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On 5/15/2021 at 11:00 AM, Jonger said:

No A.C. in my childhood home at that time. We slept in the basement quite often that miserable summer.

Was a newlywed in '88. Had an older mobile home that baked with a western exposure all afternoon. Was broke after wedding and honeymoon so not even a thought of buying a window a/c unit. Night-time sleep temp inside was 88F with little circulation. Lost a ton of sleep that summer, then had to drive in an old car without a/c to a job on the top floor of an old building with skylights and zero a/c. Had an extreme case of heatwave fatigue when it was done. 113F heat index at KFNT and freeway grass fires in Genesee Cnty. Yeah, nothing will touch '88 for my personal misery index!

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We're now in phase 7 of the MJO, but it's about to fall into the COD soon.
image.png.8fee6a458aa80892f873bbcee4634ec9.png
 

22 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


enlighten us as to what this means.


.

For this time of the year, Phase 7 into the COD would mean cooler-than-normal temperatures and equal-chances for above-normal or below-normal rainfall for the foreseeable future.image.png.455861193d840e584f927bf9710d42cf.png

6-10 outlook:
610temp.new.gif
610prcp.new.gif

8-14 outlook:
814temp.new.gif
814prcp.new.gif
With no signs of siginificant heat in the forseeable future and the potential of drier-than-normal conditions, these outlooks say ZZZZZZZZ.

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We're now in phase 7 of the MJO, but it's about to fall into the COD soon.

image.png.8fee6a458aa80892f873bbcee4634ec9.png

 

For this time of the year, Phase 7 into the COD would mean cooler-than-normal temperatures and equal-chances for above-normal or below-normal rainfall for the foreseeable future.image.png.455861193d840e584f927bf9710d42cf.png

6-10 outlook:

610temp.new.gif&key=320365d4fe8b07f5298c94af3348ea8eddfbd4dab8953237dd397b5ad6d86811

610prcp.new.gif&key=785197bf18dfcbf26a6841e25e817a89944edad4acbe4553d254b7413825a974

8-14 outlook:

814temp.new.gif&key=da24b296448e0e442bf6afe0fc769ea684f264263c57381dc941361223a04ca9

814prcp.new.gif&key=97cf50cb24eebe01a2262e09b94a65efaa73096e3f4cf481ef865af69d2e35d0

was exactly the response I expected, copy and paste of maps.

 

the MJO in the summer does not have the same impact it does in the winter (or even spring/fall). so it’s fairly toss worthy.

 

 

.

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20 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

was exactly the response I expected, copy and paste of maps.

 

the MJO in the summer does not have the same impact it does in the winter (or even spring/fall). so it’s fairly toss worthy.

 

 

.

Only time it matters is when it has decent amplitude which this current MJO wave doesn't. 

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The snooze-fest since the Feb snows shut off appears to continue unfortunately.  What an unfortunate stretch of weather we have here for weather enthusiasts.  Drought talk is of course relevant in the areas where it's festering, but it's sad that it's the highlight of the sub's weather discussion this summer.  A garden variety thunderstorm would be the highlight of the year if it were to occur for most of us lol.  Fu cking pathetic.

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