Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

Everyone from the midwest/south/northeast gets hit by storm after storm, and we here in Upstate are the odd man out.

After that incredible back to back synoptic storm bust, we move on to a lake enhanced/LES event. Watches up. Carry on...

GSB Cities	The 2020 - 2021 Snow Season	Normal Average  to Date	This Time  Last Season	Normal Seasons Average	All Time Season  Snowfall Record
Binghamton	84.5	57.1	58.5	83.4	135.2 inches (2016 - 2017)
Buffalo	65.4	72.4	56.5	94.7	199.4 inches (1976 - 1977)
Syracuse	57.0	92.4	64.0	123.8	192.1 inches (1992 - 1993)
Rochester	55.1	70.5	77.4	99.5	161.7 inches (1959 - 1960)
Albany	50.2	42.4	41.2	60.2	112.5 inches (1970 - 1971)

[BuffaloWeather]

Pattern change coming?

[wolfie09]

Monday holds a little intrigue east of lake ontario, especially tug/southern adirondacks..Comes down to those surface temps (lower elevations) and it's hard to trust the models precipitation output lol

[BuffaloWeather]

Buffalo is -5 for temps in February, making it the coldest month in years.

We are 7.3" below normal for snowfall

Snowfall to date: 65.7

Average: 73.0

[wolfie09]

 

[TugHillMatt]

I'm a little disappointed you didn't title this one "Back to Back Major Lake Effect Snowstorms for Baldwinsville, NY"

[lakeeffectkid383]

10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I'm a little disappointed you didn't title this one "Back to Back Major Lake Effect Snowstorms for Baldwinsville, NY"

You want two threads that bust? 

[rochesterdave]

22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Monday holds a little intrigue east of lake ontario, especially tug/southern adirondacks..Comes down to those surface temps (lower elevations) and it's hard to trust the models precipitation output lol

I feel like I’ve seen this same storm 5 times this year. 

[rochesterdave]

Rochester’s high end amount is the same as its expected amount, 5”. The low end is 4”. The chance of greater than 6” is 0%. All according to BUF probabilistic maps. Very bad. 
in actuality:

low end 0”

high end 8”

expected 2”

chance of 6+= 10% 

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Rochester’s high end amount is the same as its expected amount, 5”. The low end is 4”. The chance of greater than 6” is 0%. All according to BUF probabilistic maps. Very bad. 
in actuality:

low end 0”

high end 8”

expected 2”

chance of 6+= 10% 

Here you go Dave, 12-18" NE of ROC

[lakeeffectkid383]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Here you go Dave, 12-18" NE of ROC

Do they drug test at the NWS?

[Thinksnow18]

49 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I feel like I’ve seen this same storm 5 times this year. 

They’re just in continuous loop, that map is from December 2018...

[rochesterdave]

43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Here you go Dave, 12-18" NE of ROC

Literally in my back yard. One can hope. I’d be thrilled with 1/6th of that. Just nuts

[vortmax]

Bring it...all of it! 

[tim123]

Webster to walworth special. One can hope.

[brentrich]

Judah Cohen said in the twitter today. "March, in like a lion out like a lamb." GFS predicting the first part should be correct as blocking shifts from Europe closer to Greenland allowing relatively colder temperatures to return to both Europe & the Eastern US. Still just a forecast but impressive expanse of cold air!"

Hope this verifies. I'm rooting for cold and snowy March/April. 

[CNY_WX]

3 minutes ago, brentrich said:

Judah Cohen said in the twitter today. "March, in like a lion out like a lamb." GFS predicting the first part should be correct as blocking shifts from Europe closer to Greenland allowing relatively colder temperatures to return to both Europe & the Eastern US. Still just a forecast but impressive expanse of cold air!"

Hope this verifies. I'm rooting for cold and snowy March/April. 

That’s a big shift from the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook BW posted above. 

[vortmax]

Just now, CNY_WX said:

That’s a big shift from the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook BW posted above. 

Yeah, I don't think the repercussions of the SSW event are finished yet. 

[96blizz]

1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Do they drug test at the NWS?

Don’t ruin it for those of us in the pretend, fake snow. 

[BGM Blizzard]

18z Euro, GFS, and GFS v16 all seem to like a trajectory thru downtown SYR to @LakeEffectKing backyard. I'm not well versed in LES setups at all, but given the global models are even picking up what seems to be a well defined band, seems like potential there for some significant snowfall rates possibly?

 

[LakeEffectKing]

39 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

18z Euro, GFS, and GFS v16 all seem to like a trajectory thru downtown SYR to @LakeEffectKing backyard. I'm not well versed in LES setups at all, but given the global models are even picking up what seems to be a well defined band, seems like potential there for some significant snowfall rates possibly?

 

Yeah,  I think this has the potential to be Syracuse's Lake snow event of the year.  I'm surprised Binghamton was so specific with the band placement over 24 hours away from an event.. and specifically mentioned the band would be West of SYR.  If the band's placement is as depicted above , I like  my potential especially with the increased elevation, about 1200'.   Thank you again for the maps!

[CNY_WX]

47 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

18z Euro, GFS, and GFS v16 all seem to like a trajectory thru downtown SYR to @LakeEffectKing backyard. I'm not well versed in LES setups at all, but given the global models are even picking up what seems to be a well defined band, seems like potential there for some significant snowfall rates possibly?

 

I’ll take the last one. 

[BGM Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

I’ll take the last one. 

Yeah GFS v16 seems to be hitting that terrain enhancement around Cazenovia. Madison County looks prime for a WSW or LESW with next update. 

[LakeEffectKing]

I am also surprised that I'm not under any Advisory or watch.... Seems like thery're putting a lot of stock in the  Regional Canadian. 

[BGM Blizzard]

Just now, LakeEffectKing said:

I am also surprised that I'm not under any Advisory or watch.... Seems like thery're putting a lot of stock in the  Regional Canadian. 

Yeah especially considering they been handing them out like candy lately for underwhelming events. 

[BGM Blizzard]

7 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

I am also surprised that I'm not under any Advisory or watch.... Seems like thery're putting a lot of stock in the  Regional Canadian. 

Thing is, even the RGEM hits western Madison pretty nicely. Meanwhile, all 4 aforementioned models seem to largely miss all or 95% of Seneca County to the north yet they have a WSW.

[BuffaloWeather]

Interesting stats. Definitely a good year for snow depth. Almost 2 months straight here.

Buffalo and Rochester's climate record is now 151 years, and half these years feature at least 1 day reaching the mid 50s by this time of year. In 2021, we have not had any extreme temperatures yet with the maximum temperature for Buffalo and Rochester only 44°F and 43°F respectively. There is an end to this current cold stretch in sight, with above freezing maximum temperatures much of next week and above normal warmth favored by the end of the month. Normal highs this time of year are in the mid 30s for Buffalo and Rochester.

[BuffaloWeather]

33 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Thing is, even the RGEM hits western Madison pretty nicely. Meanwhile, all 4 aforementioned models seem to largely miss all or 95% of Seneca County to the north yet they have a WSW.

Where are the kuch maps???

[TugHillMatt]

Just looked out the window...I called for a dusting....have like half a dusting. I am still busting high. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, CNY_WX said:

That’s a big shift from the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook BW posted above. 

My maps don't cover March really they are for rest of February.