BuffaloWeather Posted February 18 Everyone from the midwest/south/northeast gets hit by storm after storm, and we here in Upstate are the odd man out. After that incredible back to back synoptic storm bust, we move on to a lake enhanced/LES event. Watches up. Carry on... GSB Cities The 2020 - 2021 Snow Season Normal Average to Date This Time Last Season Normal Seasons Average All Time Season Snowfall Record Binghamton 84.5 57.1 58.5 83.4 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017) Buffalo 65.4 72.4 56.5 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977) Syracuse 57.0 92.4 64.0 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993) Rochester 55.1 70.5 77.4 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960) Albany 50.2 42.4 41.2 60.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18 Pattern change coming? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wolfie09 Posted February 18 Monday holds a little intrigue east of lake ontario, especially tug/southern adirondacks..Comes down to those surface temps (lower elevations) and it's hard to trust the models precipitation output lol Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18 Buffalo is -5 for temps in February, making it the coldest month in years. We are 7.3" below normal for snowfall Snowfall to date: 65.7 Average: 73.0 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TugHillMatt Posted February 18 I'm a little disappointed you didn't title this one "Back to Back Major Lake Effect Snowstorms for Baldwinsville, NY" 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 18 10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I'm a little disappointed you didn't title this one "Back to Back Major Lake Effect Snowstorms for Baldwinsville, NY" You want two threads that bust? 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rochesterdave Posted February 18 22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Monday holds a little intrigue east of lake ontario, especially tug/southern adirondacks..Comes down to those surface temps (lower elevations) and it's hard to trust the models precipitation output lol I feel like I’ve seen this same storm 5 times this year. 5 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rochesterdave Posted February 18 Rochester’s high end amount is the same as its expected amount, 5”. The low end is 4”. The chance of greater than 6” is 0%. All according to BUF probabilistic maps. Very bad. in actuality: low end 0” high end 8” expected 2” chance of 6+= 10% 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Rochester’s high end amount is the same as its expected amount, 5”. The low end is 4”. The chance of greater than 6” is 0%. All according to BUF probabilistic maps. Very bad. in actuality: low end 0” high end 8” expected 2” chance of 6+= 10% Here you go Dave, 12-18" NE of ROC Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Here you go Dave, 12-18" NE of ROC Do they drug test at the NWS? 8 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thinksnow18 Posted February 18 49 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I feel like I’ve seen this same storm 5 times this year. They’re just in continuous loop, that map is from December 2018... 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rochesterdave Posted February 18 43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Here you go Dave, 12-18" NE of ROC Literally in my back yard. One can hope. I’d be thrilled with 1/6th of that. Just nuts Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vortmax Posted February 18 Bring it...all of it! 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tim123 Posted February 19 Webster to walworth special. One can hope. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brentrich Posted February 19 Judah Cohen said in the twitter today. "March, in like a lion out like a lamb." GFS predicting the first part should be correct as blocking shifts from Europe closer to Greenland allowing relatively colder temperatures to return to both Europe & the Eastern US. Still just a forecast but impressive expanse of cold air!" Hope this verifies. I'm rooting for cold and snowy March/April. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CNY_WX Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, brentrich said: Judah Cohen said in the twitter today. "March, in like a lion out like a lamb." GFS predicting the first part should be correct as blocking shifts from Europe closer to Greenland allowing relatively colder temperatures to return to both Europe & the Eastern US. Still just a forecast but impressive expanse of cold air!" Hope this verifies. I'm rooting for cold and snowy March/April. That’s a big shift from the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook BW posted above. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vortmax Posted February 19 Just now, CNY_WX said: That’s a big shift from the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook BW posted above. Yeah, I don't think the repercussions of the SSW event are finished yet. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
96blizz Posted February 19 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Do they drug test at the NWS? Don’t ruin it for those of us in the pretend, fake snow. 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19 18z Euro, GFS, and GFS v16 all seem to like a trajectory thru downtown SYR to @LakeEffectKing backyard. I'm not well versed in LES setups at all, but given the global models are even picking up what seems to be a well defined band, seems like potential there for some significant snowfall rates possibly? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LakeEffectKing Posted February 19 39 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z Euro, GFS, and GFS v16 all seem to like a trajectory thru downtown SYR to @LakeEffectKing backyard. I'm not well versed in LES setups at all, but given the global models are even picking up what seems to be a well defined band, seems like potential there for some significant snowfall rates possibly? Yeah, I think this has the potential to be Syracuse's Lake snow event of the year. I'm surprised Binghamton was so specific with the band placement over 24 hours away from an event.. and specifically mentioned the band would be West of SYR. If the band's placement is as depicted above , I like my potential especially with the increased elevation, about 1200'. Thank you again for the maps! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CNY_WX Posted February 19 47 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z Euro, GFS, and GFS v16 all seem to like a trajectory thru downtown SYR to @LakeEffectKing backyard. I'm not well versed in LES setups at all, but given the global models are even picking up what seems to be a well defined band, seems like potential there for some significant snowfall rates possibly? I’ll take the last one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: I’ll take the last one. Yeah GFS v16 seems to be hitting that terrain enhancement around Cazenovia. Madison County looks prime for a WSW or LESW with next update. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LakeEffectKing Posted February 19 I am also surprised that I'm not under any Advisory or watch.... Seems like thery're putting a lot of stock in the Regional Canadian. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: I am also surprised that I'm not under any Advisory or watch.... Seems like thery're putting a lot of stock in the Regional Canadian. Yeah especially considering they been handing them out like candy lately for underwhelming events. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BGM Blizzard Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: I am also surprised that I'm not under any Advisory or watch.... Seems like thery're putting a lot of stock in the Regional Canadian. Thing is, even the RGEM hits western Madison pretty nicely. Meanwhile, all 4 aforementioned models seem to largely miss all or 95% of Seneca County to the north yet they have a WSW. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19 Interesting stats. Definitely a good year for snow depth. Almost 2 months straight here. Buffalo and Rochester's climate record is now 151 years, and half these years feature at least 1 day reaching the mid 50s by this time of year. In 2021, we have not had any extreme temperatures yet with the maximum temperature for Buffalo and Rochester only 44°F and 43°F respectively. There is an end to this current cold stretch in sight, with above freezing maximum temperatures much of next week and above normal warmth favored by the end of the month. Normal highs this time of year are in the mid 30s for Buffalo and Rochester. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19 33 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Thing is, even the RGEM hits western Madison pretty nicely. Meanwhile, all 4 aforementioned models seem to largely miss all or 95% of Seneca County to the north yet they have a WSW. Where are the kuch maps??? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TugHillMatt Posted February 19 Just looked out the window...I called for a dusting....have like half a dusting. I am still busting high. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: That’s a big shift from the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook BW posted above. My maps don't cover March really they are for rest of February. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites