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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Everyone from the midwest/south/northeast gets hit by storm after storm, and we here in Upstate are the odd man out.

After that incredible back to back synoptic storm bust, we move on to a lake enhanced/LES event. Watches up. Carry on...

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GSB Cities The 2020 - 2021
Snow Season
Normal Average 
to Date
This Time 
Last Season
Normal
Seasons Average
All Time Season 
Snowfall Record
           
Binghamton 84.5 57.1 58.5 83.4 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017)
Buffalo 65.4 72.4 56.5 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977)
Syracuse 57.0 92.4 64.0 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993)
Rochester 55.1 70.5 77.4 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960)
Albany 50.2 42.4 41.2 60.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971)

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Monday holds a little intrigue east of lake ontario, especially tug/southern adirondacks..Comes down to those surface temps (lower elevations) and it's hard to trust the models precipitation output lol

qpf_024h.us_ne (31).png

qpf_024h.us_ne (32).png

qpf_024h.us_ne (33).png

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22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Monday holds a little intrigue east of lake ontario, especially tug/southern adirondacks..Comes down to those surface temps (lower elevations) and it's hard to trust the models precipitation output lol

qpf_024h.us_ne (31).png

qpf_024h.us_ne (32).png

qpf_024h.us_ne (33).png

I feel like I’ve seen this same storm 5 times this year. 

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Rochester’s high end amount is the same as its expected amount, 5”. The low end is 4”. The chance of greater than 6” is 0%. All according to BUF probabilistic maps. Very bad. 
in actuality:

low end 0”

high end 8”

expected 2”

chance of 6+= 10% 

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2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Rochester’s high end amount is the same as its expected amount, 5”. The low end is 4”. The chance of greater than 6” is 0%. All according to BUF probabilistic maps. Very bad. 
in actuality:

low end 0”

high end 8”

expected 2”

chance of 6+= 10% 

Here you go Dave, 12-18" NE of ROC :lol:

image.png.1358f06b9d8278e55acba3e45c5f57f9.png

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49 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I feel like I’ve seen this same storm 5 times this year. 

They’re just in continuous loop, that map is from December 2018...

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Judah Cohen said in the twitter today. "March, in like a lion out like a lamb." GFS predicting the first part should be correct as blocking shifts from Europe closer to Greenland allowing relatively colder temperatures to return to both Europe & the Eastern US. Still just a forecast but impressive expanse of cold air!"

Hope this verifies. I'm rooting for cold and snowy March/April. 

EugwzYKXAAEIeat.jpg

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3 minutes ago, brentrich said:

Judah Cohen said in the twitter today. "March, in like a lion out like a lamb." GFS predicting the first part should be correct as blocking shifts from Europe closer to Greenland allowing relatively colder temperatures to return to both Europe & the Eastern US. Still just a forecast but impressive expanse of cold air!"

Hope this verifies. I'm rooting for cold and snowy March/April. 

EugwzYKXAAEIeat.jpg

That’s a big shift from the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook BW posted above. 

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Just now, CNY_WX said:

That’s a big shift from the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook BW posted above. 

Yeah, I don't think the repercussions of the SSW event are finished yet. 

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18z Euro, GFS, and GFS v16 all seem to like a trajectory thru downtown SYR to @LakeEffectKing backyard. I'm not well versed in LES setups at all, but given the global models are even picking up what seems to be a well defined band, seems like potential there for some significant snowfall rates possibly?

ecmwf-deterministic-syr-precip_24hr_inch-3854800.thumb.png.b09fa7d435eea84c7957ed87ad2f1531.png

gfs-deterministic-syr-precip_24hr_inch-3908800.thumb.png.51e7f681b36915c8fcf39cdeaca50626.png

gfs-deterministic-para-syr-precip_24hr_inch-3908800.thumb.png.387e3d9cfe66d0b5af9646a615cc3437.png

 

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39 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

18z Euro, GFS, and GFS v16 all seem to like a trajectory thru downtown SYR to @LakeEffectKing backyard. I'm not well versed in LES setups at all, but given the global models are even picking up what seems to be a well defined band, seems like potential there for some significant snowfall rates possibly?

ecmwf-deterministic-syr-precip_24hr_inch-3854800.thumb.png.b09fa7d435eea84c7957ed87ad2f1531.png

gfs-deterministic-syr-precip_24hr_inch-3908800.thumb.png.51e7f681b36915c8fcf39cdeaca50626.png

gfs-deterministic-para-syr-precip_24hr_inch-3908800.thumb.png.387e3d9cfe66d0b5af9646a615cc3437.png

 

Yeah,  I think this has the potential to be Syracuse's Lake snow event of the year.  I'm surprised Binghamton was so specific with the band placement over 24 hours away from an event.. and specifically mentioned the band would be West of SYR.  If the band's placement is as depicted above , I like  my potential especially with the increased elevation, about 1200'.   Thank you again for the maps!

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47 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

18z Euro, GFS, and GFS v16 all seem to like a trajectory thru downtown SYR to @LakeEffectKing backyard. I'm not well versed in LES setups at all, but given the global models are even picking up what seems to be a well defined band, seems like potential there for some significant snowfall rates possibly?

ecmwf-deterministic-syr-precip_24hr_inch-3854800.thumb.png.b09fa7d435eea84c7957ed87ad2f1531.png

gfs-deterministic-syr-precip_24hr_inch-3908800.thumb.png.51e7f681b36915c8fcf39cdeaca50626.png

gfs-deterministic-para-syr-precip_24hr_inch-3908800.thumb.png.387e3d9cfe66d0b5af9646a615cc3437.png

 

I’ll take the last one. 

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4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

I’ll take the last one. 

Yeah GFS v16 seems to be hitting that terrain enhancement around Cazenovia. Madison County looks prime for a WSW or LESW with next update. 

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Just now, LakeEffectKing said:

I am also surprised that I'm not under any Advisory or watch.... Seems like thery're putting a lot of stock in the  Regional Canadian. 

Yeah especially considering they been handing them out like candy lately for underwhelming events. 

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7 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

I am also surprised that I'm not under any Advisory or watch.... Seems like thery're putting a lot of stock in the  Regional Canadian. 

Thing is, even the RGEM hits western Madison pretty nicely. Meanwhile, all 4 aforementioned models seem to largely miss all or 95% of Seneca County to the north yet they have a WSW.

rgem-all-nystate-precip_24hr_inch-3887200.thumb.png.798b7da595585b5a111081b6ef475568.png

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Interesting stats. Definitely a good year for snow depth. Almost 2 months straight here.

Buffalo and Rochester's climate record is now 151 years, and half these years feature at least 1 day reaching the mid 50s by this time of year. In 2021, we have not had any extreme temperatures yet with the maximum temperature for Buffalo and Rochester only 44°F and 43°F respectively. There is an end to this current cold stretch in sight, with above freezing maximum temperatures much of next week and above normal warmth favored by the end of the month. Normal highs this time of year are in the mid 30s for Buffalo and Rochester.

image.png.240cd30fd19e3c7da2371978f18d79b5.png

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33 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Thing is, even the RGEM hits western Madison pretty nicely. Meanwhile, all 4 aforementioned models seem to largely miss all or 95% of Seneca County to the north yet they have a WSW.

rgem-all-nystate-precip_24hr_inch-3887200.thumb.png.798b7da595585b5a111081b6ef475568.png

Where are the kuch maps???

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