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mimillman

Feb 21-23 Why Not

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1 hour ago, CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 said:

I'm ready for one last parting shot before the warmth comes. Thanks for a fun winter, January and February! November and December, you can just go be boring somewhere else. 

 You still have 2 more months before you can guarantee the parting shot lol.

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Sounds exciting per LOT PM AFD:

 HOWEVER, ONCE THE   
WEDGE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN ERODED VIA MOISTURE TRANSPORT   
AND DYNAMIC COOLING. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER   
FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD AND THE   
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRESENCE OF 7-8 C/KM   
LAPSE RATES ATOP THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LENDS ITSELF TO SUGGEST   
THAT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW   
WITHIN THE BROADER SHIELD OF LIGHTER, BUT STILL STEADILY-FALLING   
SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

OVERALL THINKING REGARDING SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM HASN'T   
CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY 2-3" EXPECTED   
NORTH OF I-80 (WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO AROUND 4"),   
1-3" ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I-80, AND AROUND 1" WELL SOUTH OF I-80.   
WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND A NOT QUITE AS DEEP   
DGZ SUGGEST THAT 7:1 TO 10:1 SNOW RATIOS WILL BE FAVORED SOUTH OF I-  
80 AND 9:1 TO 12:1 RATIOS WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF I-80  AT SOME POINT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL  
EAT INTO OVERALL SNOW TOTALS THERE) AND IF ANY SUPPORT FOR F-GEN   
BANDING MATERIALIZES, WHICH COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL OVER A   
NARROW REGION BY UP TO AN INCH OR TWO.  
  

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LOTs current snow map. I'm thinking it's a bit too generous, but we still have time for good and bad changes. Temps appear likely to go above freezing area-wide Sunday, so we'll see. 

Screen Shot 2021-02-19 at 5.06.45 PM.png

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22 minutes ago, steve23guy said:

Why are we not showing models people? Help us poor folk out and show us some love 

As a fellow non-model watcher who relies on screenshots from others here - thanks for speaking up!

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been consistent for 3-4 days out. Hope for 3" with some convective type periods. Ending as drizzle. It was a good run.

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On 2/18/2021 at 10:23 AM, Chicago Storm said:

Looks like a solid 2-5” event area wide.

Looking $$ near and north of ~I-80. FGEN could even sneak some 6" amounts in IA/WI. 

Dynamics easily support swaths of 1-2"/hr given the instability and moisture available. 

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17 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Little quiet in here

yup, a 1"-3" wet snow on a warm front is grounds for disappointment. how fast things change.

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The start time has been getting progressively later. Looking like mid afternoon around here.  First call of 2”

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14 minutes ago, madwx said:

The start time has been getting progressively later. Looking like mid afternoon around here.  First call of 2”

Noticed that too.  Some models don't really get it going until around 6 pm here.  Given the bias with these types of events, would not be surprised at a little earlier start time.

Assuming it stays snow for long enough, think I may be in a decent spot here.  Should at least get in on some of those heavier rates.  

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Still looks like there's support for heavy rates. The unknown is if we end up with 10:1 ratios or even a bit higher or decently under 10:1. The Kuchera snow maps are actually lower in this case than 10:1 because of marginal lower level temperatures. However, some of the Cobb outputs have greater than 10:1 for a time due to good lift aligned with the DGZ. 1-3" is a good call with potential for a swath of 3-4" where the favorable ingredients come together for a 2-4 hour window.

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Noticed that too.  Some models don't really get it going until around 6 pm here.  Given the bias with these types of events, would not be surprised at a little earlier start time.

Assuming it stays snow for long enough, think I may be in a decent spot here.  Should at least get in on some of those heavier rates.  

 

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On 2/19/2021 at 5:15 PM, btcs31 said:

As a fellow non-model watcher who relies on screenshots from others here - thanks for speaking up!

No problem my friend lol

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There’s going to be a countywide band of overperformance where a connective band sets up.  DBQ area looks prime for that 

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