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NorthHillsWx

February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat

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Here we go again. Winter storm watches up for some areas already. RAH starting to sound the alarm on this morning’s discussion. Hoping those who got hit last weekend somehow avoid another major ice event but the modeling is painting an icy picture at this point

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15 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

6z 12k NAM went up to .55 ice. 

This wedge definitely looks to keep parts of the triangle in play for significant icing, even down to Raleigh 

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RAH is sounding the alarm.  WSW now in place for their farthest NW counties including the Triad and Roxboro.  

 

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of at
  least one quarter of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Person, Forsyth and Guilford Counties.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning or evening commute.

 

 

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Poimen showed the 06 Euro with a period of plan rain midday on Thursday before going back to zr.  Maybe that mid day break can have a significant impact on total accretion.  

 

TW

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those wpc percentages for danville are just lights out, i mean how much more ice and tree damage etc can southside take this week?

. Happy Birthday to me thursday! 

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Models are trending warmer again for western NC with less accrual for the foothills compared to yesterday. Current NAM run is coming in warmer too. Think this one will be mainly for north of the Triad up into VA once again. 

 

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Latest models look interesting for Wake too.  I don't think it will be a bad event (as of now) for Wake, but looks to have more potential than the last rounds.

May get a WWA out of it.

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Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Just look at that wedge.....mercy. 
 

image.thumb.png.e0b073d16112b88eb29e1d429a63c72e.png

Some of those sleet rates up this way are still incredible. I couldn’t imagine having like 3” of sleet on the ground. Would be nutso. 

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Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Just look at that wedge.....mercy. 
 

image.thumb.png.e0b073d16112b88eb29e1d429a63c72e.png

With a look like that you would think that would dig a little deeper. I still think models won't lock in until tonight into tomorrow morning. I would go with a blend of NAM/RGEM at the moment. 

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I just don't see how that much ice accrual occurs with temps in the 30-32 range. You really need 28-29 with a sustained cold air feed keeping it there for the well over 0.25 amounts.

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2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

3km NAM temperatures doesn't scream ice storm

sfct.us_ma (15).png

I think that’s a pretty broad stroke of the paint brush. Areas north of the NC/VA border if it does primarily end up being fzra over sleet could have a crippling lights out type event. 

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

I think that’s a pretty broad stroke of the paint brush. Areas north of the NC/VA border if it does primarily end up being fzra over sleet could have a crippling lights out type event. 

Sure, but in NC as always it looks marginal for most. Probably another deal where above 3,000 ft along the escarpment gets nailed and valleys get 33 and rain. 

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Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

The triad begs to differ. Was 30-31 most of event and was pretty significant. 

I never got below 31, and had significant tree damage.

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Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

A ton of precip has fallen by this point. 

Wouldn't call this a ton 

qpf_acc.us_ma (1) (1).png

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