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February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.


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Down to 13.6 now. Probably as low as I'm going to get. After being around freezing for several days in a row, the last 24 hours have frozen the ground solid and chilled road temps. I expect the snow currently on the ground to evaporate in large part today. But everything should be primed for rapid sticking this evening. 

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Bottomed out at 17.1 here but it’s now 17.6. The last GFS I looked at torched us to 48 this afternoon before quickly crashing back to 33 as precip started. I find that very hard to believe. There is zero cloud cover here, so it’s possible I guess if we hold on to full sunshine all day. 

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For folks in the valley cloud cover proceeding events like this can very good.  Trapping cold air in the valley at the surface.  It does not always matter but in marginal situations every piece of the puzzle counts.  Right now it is not looking very good.   Here is a good place to check out cloud cover.   https://www.theweathernetwork.com/map/satellite

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I have high "fish scale" clouds racing in from the south, but they are thin enough to allow plenty of sunlight through. Temp is climbing quickly. Up to 24 from a low of 17 despite a light NE wind.

I feel like as long as we stay within reason on temps we will be ok there. It’s the mid levels that I’m worried about.

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I feel like the trend will be for the NAM to come east and everything else trends west and they meet in the middle. I think the snow never makes it in the valley other than some token flakes on the back end. I think the cutoff will be on the eastern slopes of the plateau.


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esoscale Discussion 0108
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0915 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

   Areas affected...the ArkLaTex region northeastward to southwest

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 171515Z - 172115Z

   SUMMARY...A band of moderate to occasionally heavy snow will
   continue to expand northeastward across the discussion area,
   potentially impacting the Memphis, TN metropolitan area beginning
   around 17Z.

   DISCUSSION...Precipitation continues to expand on the northern flank
   of a precipitation shield covering much of east Texas and western
   Louisiana currently.  Over the past hour, precipitation (falling
   mostly as moderate snow) has expanded in coverage and intensified
   across southeastern Arkansas near Pine Bluff/Dumas and vicinity. 
   The overall regime will favor continued expansion of the
   precipitation into southwest Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi,
   with the onset of snowfall in the Memphis, TN metro area around 17Z.
    Several hours of moderate to occasionally heavy snow will occur in
   this region through at least 21Z.  Point forecast soundings indicate
   potential for some sleet to mix in with the snow across southern
   portions of the MD area (generally from Texarkana to Bolivar County,
   MS).  Occasional 1" per hour rates are expected - especially in
   areas that maintain an all-snow precipitation type.

   ..Cook.. 02/17/2021
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