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Chicago Storm

Feb 17-19th Potential Of Potential

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20 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said:

 

Some of the issues with that mid-December event:

1) Dry profiles

2) Lower delta-Ts (850s were closer to -8C) and shallower arctic air

3) Significant veering between sfc-850mb

4) Weaker model support in terms of intensity/duration

 

I think we have a more favourable setup this time, but we'll see what happens tomorrow. RADAR won't be too helpful given the shallow nature of the banding. With lower beam heights, KBUF will likely pick up on it better than WKR.

Should be interesting to watch this unfold tomorrow. Here’s hoping for some decent totals.

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Just now, Cuteirishgirl25 said:

I don’t trust it either, but you never know, remember what happened when everybody predicted a couple inches for our area and we ended up with 10 inches. So you just never know

I only got 6 or 7 in Fairfield. It's like, I felt shorted. 

Either way, I know what you mean. I could see 5-6, don't get me wrong, but I also know that when all the models thought we'd see a foot, we got 2 inches.

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So after viewing the radar, it looks like unless some disappears, it should snow for 6-8 hours at least (maybe more). If we see rates of 0.5 inches per hour, that's 3-4 inches. 

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I've got nothing. Feels like I moved to Mchenry. What the ?

update: was out and about have maybe 3/4" of crystal ,still falling. Looks beautiful on the tundra piled high. So all is good. Going to miss this next week.

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Guilt by association gonna haunt me. Now every time someone busts low on snowfall they'll say they were McHenryed

Edit: We do have a coating

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4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

over performer

on cue:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
541 AM CST THU FEB 18 2021  
   
UPDATE  
  
541 AM CST  
  
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO UP THE CHANGES OF SNOW OVER  
THE CHICAGO METRO THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY   
INDICATES THAT LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE   
CHICAGO AREA. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE   
SNOW RATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THEREAFTER, WE SHOULD BEGIN  
TO LOSE THE BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT LATER THIS MORNING, SO   
RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY EASE. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN   
HANDLING THIS LAKE ENHANCEMENT WELL, BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST   
THAT SOME ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS COULD   
APPROACH 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS NEAR THE LAKE.   
  
SINCE THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE, WE HAVE  
ISSUED AN SPS AND A GRAPHIC CAST TO MESSAGE THIS CONCERN.

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Saw some early signs that the band was trying to form on BUF radar but it's since fizzled.  This was well ahead of schedule though anyway; once better moisture arrives and shear is reduced it should get going by early p.m.

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Wintry appeal at its finest with dendrites drifting down and sun glinting off them. Pure fluff with an inch here. Second photo is the top of the recycling bin. Stuff is so airy you can blow it off. The goods. I took a slow-mo but file size is too big to post unfortunately. 6af178d8e44d8b6c3e1050c39829cb4d.jpgf7dff930a21c7c474b32c2335be582d4.jpg

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Nice fluffer here. I haven't been out to measure, but eyeballing close to 2 inches. Looks like we might make a run at 3 based on radar.

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