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Hoosier

February 14-16 Winter Storm

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7 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

If I recall correctly, the Kuchera takes into account the actual air temperatures.

It does, and it takes into account the entire thermal profile (not just air temps). That said, the weather bell implementation is totally wonky, or they are purposely inflated. Their maps are always bonkers. The pivotal ones are more true to form, and slightly more realistic.

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From the ILN area...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches. Some sleet and freezing rain may mix in with the snow
  across South Central Ohio and Northeast Kentucky.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana,
  Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central,
  Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

Yep, I'm riding this. Only thing that could screw us is if it warms up too much, but I'm feeling this one. 4-8 is a fair amount, but I wouldn't be stunned if it's more.

 

All I know is that I told my s/o that Cincy has weak, boring winters. I have for one year been proven wrong.

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Here's a forecast sounding from southern Lake Michigan at 84 hrs.  Nice omega (pink lines on left) overlay in the dgz.  From a delta T perspective, I don't remember another setup with this good of a delta T on the western/southwestern shoreline this winter.

 10610268_2021021212_NAM_084_41.78-87.38_severe_ml.thumb.png.ac16858621b84a961293dd6cf7653876.png

Just to touch on this again.  I have been thinking about it and am struggling to remember the last time that a lake enhanced event on the southern/western shore had ~20-22C delta T in place for basically the entire duration of the synoptic system.  I'm sure it happens every once in a while but it's far more common to see that toward the tail end of a system as CAA kicks in.  Some models are stingy with the inland penetration of the band but the boundary layer flow looks good enough to get it at least several miles inland imo.  At least I hope lol

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I just got off of the phone with someone in Irving, Texas. I could hear the almost panic in her voice while discussing their forecast. People are freaking out.  A lot of snow and zr in their forecast, along with below zero wind chills. The worst thing for them is that it's not going to get above freezing for almost a week. Expect lots of headlines from their area.

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That’s a rarity down there. Someone posted elsewhere that his wife has only seen snow 3 times in her life. 

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41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Just to touch on this again.  I have been thinking about it and am struggling to remember the last time that a lake enhanced event on the southern/western shore had ~20-22C delta T in place for basically the entire duration of the synoptic system.  I'm sure it happens every once in a while but it's far more common to see that toward the tail end of a system as CAA kicks in.  Some models are stingy with the inland penetration of the band but the boundary layer flow looks good enough to get it at least several miles inland imo.  At least I hope lol

 

F_61889.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Did KIND drop their Winter Storm Watch ? I'm not seeing it anymore.

It's still there. Prepare 2 b buried

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4 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Did KIND drop their Winter Storm Watch ? I'm not seeing it anymore.

They did not. 

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There’s a bug in the national map that is causing some issues. Last time it looked like ILN had dropped theirs and they had not. 

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13 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

 

F_61889.jpg

Hope so.  I am a little paranoid about the band hanging to my east and then shifting westward through here more quickly than I'd like.  Also some indications of mesolow development which can screw with things.  I only wish we had this setup a month ago.  Would've been talking about even higher Delta T values with that good dgz/omega overlap.

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bankin on lake effect snow on the west shore of Lake MIchigan 84 hours out is a losers game.

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Considering the aggressiveness of the HRRR with lake effect/enhancement this winter, it'll be interesting to see what it does with this one when it gets in range.

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37 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Nice. Why is the GFS Op always bad at 18z?

 

Last I heard, and this may have changed, but they used to not use steering currents in the 06z & 18z model runs to save money in the simulations.

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31 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Mean up to 7 (including tonight). Spread is wide tho. 4-12

Nam looks a bit better with precip more NW with similar L placement through 48

in the end have to hope for the intial Sunday PM wave. The 3rd wave on the train is DOA as that dam high is dominant. Left with only a lake effect dream. But folks south and east deserve their time. 

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15 minutes ago, Baum said:

in the end have to hope for the intial Sunday PM wave. The 3rd wave on the train is DOA as that dam high is dominant. Left with only a lake effect dream. But folks south and east deserve their time. 

Speaking of lake effect dream.  This is just to 12z Mon.  Band is pointed toward Lake county IN at end of run.

snku_024h.us_mw.thumb.png.96d81f1517b60f56445e4c4053446c1e.png

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Will be curious to see if LOT pulls the trigger on a winter storm watch for Lake/Porter with the overnight package or later tomorrow to account for the rather solid lake enhanced signal.  Then perhaps it's advisory for a good chunk of the cwa for Sun-Mon, especially since the roads will probably be sh!t with such cold temps.

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While I don't have the courage of Alek to come out with an exact number, I do like 6"+ here.  I also think somebody in the LOT cwa will see double digits out of this... the synoptic alone probably won't be enough to get double digits that far north so it may need to be the synoptic/lake combo, which would mean somewhere in Lake/Porter and possibly the Illinois shore.  If the lake effect stalls out for a long time and goes crazy, then you couldn't rule out isolated amounts of 18-24" somewhere in those counties.  That is a high end/low probability scenario though.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

While I don't have the courage of Alek to come out with an exact number, I do like 6"+ here.  I also think somebody in the LOT cwa will see double digits out of this... the synoptic alone probably won't be enough to get double digits that far north so it may need to be the synoptic/lake combo, which would mean somewhere in Lake/Porter and possibly the Illinois shore.  If the lake effect stalls out for a long time and goes crazy, then you couldn't rule out isolated amounts of 18-24" somewhere in those counties.  That is a high end/low probability scenario though.

ukie is liking the same areas

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9 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

ukie is liking the same areas

Subtract a little bit for tonight/Saturday, but that's a hell of a signal for a global model and considering what overall ratios are likely to be in the synoptic and lake effect, this verbatim is probably the 18+ scenario.

qpf_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.5df2717dfe69a59e147179a63513f16b.png

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