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February 14-16 Winter Storm


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WPC Day 5 snow probs and their model choice via extended forecast discussion

 

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The WPC medium-range forecast package was derived from a composite blend of the 12Z ECMWF/EC ensemble mean, the 18Z GFS/GEFS, together with a smaller contribution from the 12Z CMC/CMC mean and the 01Z NBM. Mostly ensemble means were used on Days 6 and 7 given the increasing model uncertainties.

 

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1 hour ago, zinski1990 said:

I'll give it another day or so. If it doesn't trend back nw I'll give up. 

Many of yesterday's 12z EPS members brought mix/ZR/rain up into central IN. The 0z and 6z EPS looks like a better track - very few mixing issues here, albeit drier. The GEFS is a similar situation. I like where we're at ATM, though do need to monitor any weaker/more sheared/drier trends today and tomorrow.

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16 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

these things just get no room to breathe 

Exactly.. models are having a hard time figuring out each storm 72 hours out as its predisesor is being ironed out. problem is it's a parade of storms each within 72 hours

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1 hour ago, blue60007 said:

Many of yesterday's 12z EPS members brought mix/ZR/rain up into central IN. The 0z and 6z EPS looks like a better track - very few mixing issues here, albeit drier. The GEFS is a similar situation. I like where we're at ATM, though do need to monitor any weaker/more sheared/drier trends today and tomorrow.

The Euro looks good. Were lucky that were in a neg pna. Southeast ridge is saving it from being another southern slider

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21 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

The Euro looks good. Were lucky that were in a neg pna. Southeast ridge is saving it from being another southern slider

00Z Euro area average sounding for Chicago below. The DGZ is ~14,000' deep with steep lapse rates above that and unidirectional flow off the lake. Would probably be double digit totals w/ the QPF it has forecast.

Obviously still a lot can go wrong w/ the TPV not moving out in time. There has been a trend for a deeper upper low moving across the SW and TX - if that can cut off a bit more and slow down it would likely result in a farther N/W storm track at the surface.

930407126_ScreenShot2021-02-11at9_33_19AM.thumb.png.fee6b3ff608b2df74c88028c926f6189.png

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26 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

we hit on these next couple, even modestly, and we're pushing top tier depths for our climo

Don't remember depths exceeding this in 07-08 or 13-14. GHD was temporary and not the steady increase this year has been

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11 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Don't remember depths exceeding this in 07-08 or 13-14. GHD was temporary and not the steady increase this year has been

Skilling posted this last night, duration of this snow depth definitely getting impressive. Top 5 is in the bag, would be neat to have every day in February in double digits though

2DDCCDC3-AE95-4BE5-9476-A7F2D180C47B.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, cutlew said:

Skilling posted this last night, duration of this snow depth definitely getting impressive. Top 5 is in the bag, would be neat to have every day in February in double digits though

2DDCCDC3-AE95-4BE5-9476-A7F2D180C47B.jpeg

Its been remarkable. I haven't seen the ground since late December.

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Just now, A-L-E-K said:

Yeah hot run

Gonna have crazy snow depths around the area if this next week or so of systems pans out.  3", 6", 8" snow depth is kind of all the same to me, but if we're talking around 2 feet or more, yeah, bring it on.

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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

we hit on these next couple, even modestly, and we're pushing top tier depths for our climo

Out here in corn country, I judge snow cover by how much corn stubble is still visible. In 25 years, I can't recall it being this deep for this long, ever. There is barely a corn stalk visible in any field.

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I haven't been home since nov 1st, but via cam near my front door, I can confirm I see blades of grass peaking through the snow. The lack of big dog potential in my neck of the woods this winter is a bummer. Old crusty snowcover doesnt do anything for me but y'all enjoy your yellow/black dirty snowcover.

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