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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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45 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Any way y’a slice it, this is a very impressive lake effect signal and arguably the most promising set up in years for delivery in the Chicago metro 

This has a shot to be highly disruptive/borderline crippling for a localized area that stays under it the longest.  Blowing/drifting not necessarily a major factor but there should be a bit of wind.  The heavy rates and very cold temps could make it very difficult for road crews to keep up with.

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Just now, Stebo said:

Wagons west on every model for 00z. Dtx's going forecast of 1 to 3 is definitely going up. Id argue the eastern 2 tiers and the thumb needing a watch with current model trends.

That comment earlier u said after that one post about the high pressure placement. You said this seals it it's coming north now lol. You were sarcastic but probably right lol

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9 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I'm surprised these boards are not on fire right now. Lol

Fwiw I came home from work to see the NW shift happen and have looked like the cat in the HeavyBreathing.gif ever since.

That said, I am taking some of the gaudier totals on Kuchera maps with a grain of salt. As discussed at length, temperature profiles are going to be good pretty much across the board for high-ratio snowfalls, but of course there are other factors at play when it comes to SLRs. Thinking that knocking a couple inches off all across the board may not be a bad idea but we’ll see.

Feel for the folks in the WFOs around here. Going to be a hectic couple of days.

G

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3 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

Fwiw I came home fr

Quote

 

om work to see the NW shift happen and have looked like the cat in the HeavyBreathing.gif ever since.

That said, I am taking some of the gaudier totals on Kuchera maps with a grain of salt. As discussed at length, temperature profiles are going to be good pretty much across the board for high-ratio snowfalls, but of course there are other factors at play when it comes to SLRs. Thinking that knocking a couple inches off all across the board may not be a bad idea but we’ll see.

Feel for the folks in the WFOs around here. Going to be a hectic couple of days.

G

I agree for the most part:gun:

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21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Add this to the pound town models.  

Euro came a good bit NW w/ the back edge of precip late Monday (as compared to 12Z). Hi res models are showing the EL close to 2km which is more than enough for the heavy rates you’ve been hinting at, and having the synoptic support tomorrow night and again Monday nights helps guarantee sufficient moisture. My hunch is that LOT is a bit gun shy given the tendency for hi res to overdo LES earlier in the season, but there are a lot more reasons to believe it this round than not, IMO. 

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The way I see it, the population of this board is sort of representative of the general population.  The Chicago metro area has something like 9 million people, so you would expect more Chicago area posters here than, say, Indianapolis or Cincinnati area posters.  

That being said, to anybody in the Ohio Valley area who is lurking, feel free to join in.

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Okay, I noticed there is a relative lack of southern/eastern sub-forum members posting on this event so I decided to hop in. Long time lurker of 6 years, from NW KY. It's been quite awhile since I have seen this much consensus on a 6"+ storm for the Lower OH Valley. Excited to say the least! Was somewhat questioning last night's 0z GFS sporting the progressive bias, but pretty much all late evening runs have corrected back to the west. Thankfully this go around we won't have any icing issues in my vicinity, received almost .50 of that from the ice storm a few days ago. 

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The way I see it, the population of this board is sort of representative of the general population.  The Chicago metro area has something like 9 million people, so you would expect more Chicago area posters here than, say, Indianapolis or Cincinnati area posters.  

That being said, to anybody in the Ohio Valley area who is lurking, feel free to join in.

Still can't believe I'm the only one who ever posts from the DVN cwa, other than the CR crew on DVN's northwest edge.  The QCA is a fairly high population area relatively speaking, so for me to be the only one here is kind of weird lol.  Did have some mets in the past (Oceanstwx and Justin) who were great, but they've moved out of the area.  Wish some of the DVN peeps who probably peruse the board in the shadows would post.

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Just now, Southern stream said:

Okay, I noticed there is a relative lack of southern/eastern sub-forum members posting on this event so I decided to hop in. Long time lurker of 6 years, from NW KY. It's been quite awhile since I have seen this much consensus on a 6"+ storm for the Lower OH Valley. Excited to say the least! Was somewhat questioning last night's 0z GFS sporting the progressive bias, but pretty much all late evening runs have corrected back to the west. Thankfully this go around we won't have any icing issues in my vicinity, received almost .50 of that from the ice storm a few days ago. 

:hug:

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PAH and LMK will more than likely up areas to warning headlines by morning, based on the 0z runs a good (maybe even conservative) 6-10"+ swath looking probable considering the ratios we will be dealing with in an arctic airmass. Hopefully you peeps up to my north/northwest can get in on the action too. 

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5 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Nice lake event for Chicago. Pretty rare times for totals like that in ne ill. Hrrr model 

Screenshot_20210214-025547_Samsung Internet.jpg

I about fainted when I saw that run lol.  Still going nicely at the end of the run.

Something with this high of a ceiling doesn't come around too often for the northwest tip of Indiana and especially Chicago.  It's not like the traditional snowbelts where you get good chances more often.  Yeah there's some synoptic snow to fall back on, but it would sting if this one doesn't live up and produce 12+

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