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Hoosier

February 14-16 Winter Storm

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6 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Any way y’a slice it, this is a very impressive lake effect signal and arguably the most promising set up in years for delivery in the Chicago metro 

Arlington Heights with an inch while parts of downtown Chicago end up with 18”+ would be insane. 

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Final call 3” here. I managed about an inch from the system today and there’s light lake effect falling now. Hoping the grand finale will be the Thursday system.

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So meanwhile, in Cincy, they're calling 9-12. I'm still not mega convinced, I'm in the 6-10 range, but even 6-10 with any wind would be a disaster out here. We may be in the bullseye, folks. Here's hoping we hit the jackpot!

Screenshot_20210213-233914.png

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Just now, StormfanaticInd said:

I'm surprised these boards are not on fire right now. Lol

Cause it's not in Chicago. You all know it's true 

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Reference LES - LOT AFD update (click link for additional discussion on tomorrow night and Monday):

Quote
Finally, we did toss around the idea of needing a Winter Storm
Watch for parts of the northeast Illinois shore for later Sunday
evening through Monday with the signal for potentially significant
lake effect snowfall increasing. LES parameters aren`t overly-
stellar, but the potential for a nearly full-lake fetch along with
lake-induced CAPE values of a few hundred J/kg with the 925-850
mb layer essentially completely within the dendritic growth zone
lends some credibility to the 0.50+" QPF forecasts with the
incoming hires guidance. SLRs in this type of setup would
undoubtedly be high, likely 20-25:1, so you can probably see where
I`m going here. Given the fickle nature of these setups, elected
to defer any decision to the midnight shift, but do note that
the threat for significant LES snowfall somewhere along the NE
Illinois/NW Indiana shore exists into Monday.

 

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Just now, StormfanaticInd said:

We need to get some more central and southern members on here lol

I know theres more. Most never or rarely post though. I think generally the southern side of the forums members are quiter and just lurk more 

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Wagons west on every model for 00z. Dtx's going forecast of 1 to 3 is definitely going up. Id argue the eastern 2 tiers and the thumb needing a watch with current model trends.

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45 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Any way y’a slice it, this is a very impressive lake effect signal and arguably the most promising set up in years for delivery in the Chicago metro 

This has a shot to be highly disruptive/borderline crippling for a localized area that stays under it the longest.  Blowing/drifting not necessarily a major factor but there should be a bit of wind.  The heavy rates and very cold temps could make it very difficult for road crews to keep up with.

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Just now, Stebo said:

Wagons west on every model for 00z. Dtx's going forecast of 1 to 3 is definitely going up. Id argue the eastern 2 tiers and the thumb needing a watch with current model trends.

That comment earlier u said after that one post about the high pressure placement. You said this seals it it's coming north now lol. You were sarcastic but probably right lol

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9 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I'm surprised these boards are not on fire right now. Lol

Fwiw I came home from work to see the NW shift happen and have looked like the cat in the HeavyBreathing.gif ever since.

That said, I am taking some of the gaudier totals on Kuchera maps with a grain of salt. As discussed at length, temperature profiles are going to be good pretty much across the board for high-ratio snowfalls, but of course there are other factors at play when it comes to SLRs. Thinking that knocking a couple inches off all across the board may not be a bad idea but we’ll see.

Feel for the folks in the WFOs around here. Going to be a hectic couple of days.

G

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3 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

Fwiw I came home fr

Quote

 

om work to see the NW shift happen and have looked like the cat in the HeavyBreathing.gif ever since.

That said, I am taking some of the gaudier totals on Kuchera maps with a grain of salt. As discussed at length, temperature profiles are going to be good pretty much across the board for high-ratio snowfalls, but of course there are other factors at play when it comes to SLRs. Thinking that knocking a couple inches off all across the board may not be a bad idea but we’ll see.

Feel for the folks in the WFOs around here. Going to be a hectic couple of days.

G

I agree for the most part:gun:

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11 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

For all of you who have been deserving this snow for a while, I hope it delivers and then some.

I like nice people

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56 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Reference LES - LOT AFD update (click link for additional discussion on tomorrow night and Monday):

 

Add this to the pound town models.  

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2021021400_78_2250_220.thumb.png.39c1fd24fcc53c5344b6db66f2a25e23.png

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Euro with a wide swath of 6”+ from Chicago & points SE (majority 10 inch totals in Indiana). Oddly enough, is the first 0z run I’ve seen tonight without a strong western LM lake signal.

Or, I should say, no wacky weenie results.:)

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21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Add this to the pound town models.  

Euro came a good bit NW w/ the back edge of precip late Monday (as compared to 12Z). Hi res models are showing the EL close to 2km which is more than enough for the heavy rates you’ve been hinting at, and having the synoptic support tomorrow night and again Monday nights helps guarantee sufficient moisture. My hunch is that LOT is a bit gun shy given the tendency for hi res to overdo LES earlier in the season, but there are a lot more reasons to believe it this round than not, IMO. 

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1 hour ago, zinski1990 said:

Cause it's not in Chicago. You all know it's true 

Nailed it. Chicago area or it didn’t happen lol  

To be honest, I feel like this subforum should have been renamed something relating to Chicago many years ago. 

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Lets don't confuse this for February 1910. I see this having a large 8-12 inch area in eastern Indiana/western half Ohio, which is impressive. But it isn't necessarily historical, which is when you get 3-4 threads. 1-2 threads will be more than enough probably in the end.

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The way I see it, the population of this board is sort of representative of the general population.  The Chicago metro area has something like 9 million people, so you would expect more Chicago area posters here than, say, Indianapolis or Cincinnati area posters.  

That being said, to anybody in the Ohio Valley area who is lurking, feel free to join in.

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Okay, I noticed there is a relative lack of southern/eastern sub-forum members posting on this event so I decided to hop in. Long time lurker of 6 years, from NW KY. It's been quite awhile since I have seen this much consensus on a 6"+ storm for the Lower OH Valley. Excited to say the least! Was somewhat questioning last night's 0z GFS sporting the progressive bias, but pretty much all late evening runs have corrected back to the west. Thankfully this go around we won't have any icing issues in my vicinity, received almost .50 of that from the ice storm a few days ago. 

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The way I see it, the population of this board is sort of representative of the general population.  The Chicago metro area has something like 9 million people, so you would expect more Chicago area posters here than, say, Indianapolis or Cincinnati area posters.  

That being said, to anybody in the Ohio Valley area who is lurking, feel free to join in.

Still can't believe I'm the only one who ever posts from the DVN cwa, other than the CR crew on DVN's northwest edge.  The QCA is a fairly high population area relatively speaking, so for me to be the only one here is kind of weird lol.  Did have some mets in the past (Oceanstwx and Justin) who were great, but they've moved out of the area.  Wish some of the DVN peeps who probably peruse the board in the shadows would post.

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Just now, Southern stream said:

Okay, I noticed there is a relative lack of southern/eastern sub-forum members posting on this event so I decided to hop in. Long time lurker of 6 years, from NW KY. It's been quite awhile since I have seen this much consensus on a 6"+ storm for the Lower OH Valley. Excited to say the least! Was somewhat questioning last night's 0z GFS sporting the progressive bias, but pretty much all late evening runs have corrected back to the west. Thankfully this go around we won't have any icing issues in my vicinity, received almost .50 of that from the ice storm a few days ago. 

:hug:

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I'm basically an hour from the PA border in Ohio by lake erie so sometimes i feel alone here too lol lurk alot. haha i know we got the Ohio subfourm bit its not as active. 

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PAH and LMK will more than likely up areas to warning headlines by morning, based on the 0z runs a good (maybe even conservative) 6-10"+ swath looking probable considering the ratios we will be dealing with in an arctic airmass. Hopefully you peeps up to my north/northwest can get in on the action too. 

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