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Tuesday Feb 9th Snow


HoarfrostHubb
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6 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

tuesday evening?  Maybe some turns at lovely Bousquet mountain after work for me!

Durning the daytime.  Not expecting much, but possibly better than today for some.

Still have some spread in the track of the surface low, which will
have implications on how far north the rain/snow mix will be. As of
right now this looks most likely across the South Coast, while the
rest of the region sees mainly snow. In addition how quickly this
low deepens will impact how much snowfall we receive. If it spins up
quicker than we will be able to squeeze out a bit more snowfall
versus a slower spin up. Have leaned toward the WPC guidance, which
is closer to the EPS/GEFS. This depicts a weaker wave and less
snowfall than previously anticipated. Matches up well with the
decrease in the 24 hr snowfall amounts AOA 3" per EPS probabilities -
right now it shows roughly a 10 to 40 percent chance with the
highest chances along the MA/NH border. The previous run ranged from
roughly 20 percent 60 percent. Right now totals are between 1-3
inches generally across the interior and a dusting to an inch for
the south coast. Not completely out of the question there are some
4" amounts across the eastern slopes of the Berkshires. Could see a
few places needing an Advisory, but will need to see if the downward
trend continues.
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This pattern contributing to Tuesday ... situates throughout the rest of the week, too.

The "low" on Tuesday escapes seaward, and there's really only negligible suppression south of the apparent baroclinic axis .. such that it persists roughly along the 39th parallel through the end of the weak - contributing to Steve's thread impetus... but that part of this blurred by fast flow uncertainties...

I mentioned this in the other thread ( month ); this is a powderkeg week ... probably through the 15th .. 17th for that matter.  We are getting a semi- permanent + PP draped out from the NP/S Manitoba to Ontario .. under which around that 39 there is a long easterly flow collocated with ton of thickness packing.  It's spring already along the Gulf of Mexico interface region - meanwhile,   sub -20C plumes of air are amassed under said surface ridging over S/SE Canada.

That's gas, plus air ... well mixed to the proper detonation ratio - where's the match? 

What makes this particularly interesting for me is that while all the above is setting up and synoptically evolving in ALL guidance through the mid/ latter week ( possibly beyond ..), the GEFs and EPS indicate a -1 to +1 SD correction in the PNA mode ... It's like a crime to transmit that much PNA mode change in the stormy direction, whilst that powderkeg exists ...and dare NOT storm.. Wow.

Yet, all we get is/are these piddling WAA bursters and shrapnel faux cyclogenesis smears like Tuesday -

That said, and to point ( sorry - just wanted to cover a bit about the over-arcing theme of the week/ .. next weekend ) Tuesday I think has a shot at over-producing.  Mind you .. that doesn't mean calling the Nat Guard and putting them on stand-by or anything .. But, that intense baroclinic gradient is so rich that anything that breaks out gets a kind of 'synergistic' feed-back/constructive interference and even weakly close attending cyclones may end up with a couple of sneaky parallel bands on the flop side of the polar boundary bulge.. You can kind of see that in the QPF management in these runs. 

I love nickle and dime patterns - ...  It's almost like Tuesday, Steve's notice for late Thursday ...and that unfocused aspect later in the weekend, is all one event - just different chapters in a novella.  And, while this is all happening, there's a back ground potential to see something more important emerge given to tandem -AO nadir ( timed for 7 days from now), together with the -1 to +1 SD PNA..

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2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Hopefully the 3k NAM is too far north. It has the hot hand though.

You’re not running anything that far north. I mean I suppose you could have a snow to ice deal but with everything else snow to the coast.. toss it until other stuff shows it. Nam does better with coastals qpf issues aside . This is just overrunning basically 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You’re not running anything that far north. I mean I suppose you could have a snow to ice deal but with everything else snow to the coast.. toss it until other stuff shows it. Nam does better with coastals qpf issues aside . This is just overrunning basically 

Yeah I agree with you Kevin. I think the blocking should tend to keep things south of CT track wise. Should be a good refresher to prime for a bigger event at the end of the week.

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like a solid 3-6” event for pretty much all of SNE 

Ceiling  .. perhaps.  I'm thinking it's 4 ...maybe 5" over achiever frankly...  I think there's a cap on the cyclogenesis proficiency - it doesn't have a lot of jet mechanics for inducing the cyclonic scaffolding of jet structures... but, it has intense baroclinic/thickness packing ...so, any UVM is maximizing due to a steep elevate frontal escape ...and with a cold atmosphere in place, an IB/ SGZ efficiency look to it -  ...have to roll up sleeves and look at discrete model products and other machine assists to prove it, but just based upon my experience/ synoptic overview combined - sure other Mets have hot takes too lol   

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ceiling  .. perhaps.  I'm thinking it's 4 ...maybe 5" over achiever frankly...  I think there's a cap on the cyclogenesis proficiency - it doesn't have a lot of jet mechanics for inducing the cyclonic scaffolding of jet structures... but, it has intense baroclinic/thickness packing ...so, any UVM is maximizing due to a steep elevate frontal escape ...and with a cold atmosphere in place, an IB/ SGZ efficiency look to it -  ...have to roll up sleeves and look at discrete model products and other machine assists to prove it, but just based upon my experience/ synoptic overview combined - sure other Mets have hot takes too lol   

Yeah agree Tippy. Just not enough impetus to get into warning levels . Minimal forcing. You can envision a big area of light to moderate snow , but not great snow growth.. so you slowly pile up 3-6” of sand . A Ray favorite 

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah agree Tippy. Just not enough impetus to get into warning levels . Minimal forcing. You can envision a big area of light to moderate snow , but not great snow growth.. so you slowly pile up 3-6” of sand . A Ray favorite 

Well that's the thing .. it's minimal forcing ( yes ) like you say,  but the growth would be decent with UVM feeding the SGZ ... that's sort of how we get to over-produced results. Maximizing one or two kinematic processes among a stew of modest aspects and suddenly we got 5" of solid advisory -

But agreed with steady light to moderate, ... perhaps stacking by virtue of the over-arching pattern being the primary cause, it allows it to carry on for 12 hours that way ...So we may end up some interesting amounts for being only a vague cyclone mechanics. Yup -

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